Yesterday 1-0 +.81 units
Season to date 148-196-16 -34.08 Units Average Odds +105 Average Units/Bet 0.94
All of these lines come from a local book that I use. I will say this often, BE SURE TO CHECK THE PRICES AT ALL THE BOOKS YOU CAN ACCESS. One of the easiest ways to be a better bettor is get the best prices. I’m using lines from my local to try to teach this lesson and make sure what I post is widely available to those who read. I’m sure anything I post in here is offered at a better number somewhere, so be smart and check all your outs before placing your wager. The first number after each player’s name is their US odds with decimal odds in parenthesis. I’ll list total games for every match and spreads for matches with a spread greater than 2.5 games. Anything less than that and just take the moneyline, no need to risk a bagel or breadstick ruining your favorite spread.
As for staking, 1 unit = 1% of my bankroll. Do what you’d like, but I think is the best plan for the long term. Almost all bets will be 1 unit, sometimes less and rarely more. If it’s a favorite, then the bet is to win the number of units posted. For example, 1 unit on a -130 (1,77) is a 1.3 unit bet to win 1 unit. If it’s an underdog, then the bet is to risk the units posted. For example, 1 unit on +200 (3,00) is 1 unit to win 2 units. Feel free to DM @_Noops with any questions.
Serena Williams -585 (1,17) vs Vitalia Diatchenko +435 (5,35) Total Games 18.5 Spread -/+ 6 games
Although she’s mostly known for her motherhood and fashion designing, Serena Williams does till play tennis. She’s the greatest player in the history of the WTA, but she’s struggled with injury this season and was literally in a wheelchair just days ago. Don’t bet this match. Pass.
Kurumi Nara -175 (1,57) vs Dalila Jakupovic +145 (2,45) Total Games 21 Spread -/+ 3 games
I would vote they just cancel this match and bring in 2 more local wild cards or lucky losers. Neither of these women have played good tennis this season and both have been even worse on the dirt. In general, I think it’s a bad idea to be on a match where both women aren’t good. In that spirit, pass.
Giulia Gatto Monticone +300 (4,00) vs Sofia Kenin -400 (1,25) Total Games 20 Spread +/- 5 games
Kenin is an interesting talent. Her game seems to grow steadily each season and she shows mental fortitude which is invaluable in this sport. She doesn’t have a ton of success on clay yet, but I think she’ll settle in nicely on the dirt eventually. Monticone is an older player that usually beats up on inferorior talent. It will be interesting to see how Kenin handles the veteran, but I expect her to win. That said, no interest in backing her. Pass.
Marie Bouzkova +175 (2,75) vs Bianca Andreescu -225 (1,44) Total Games 20.5 Spread +/- 4 games
I hope Andreescu is healthy. She is 22-3 this year and has been electric before getting injured. She’s taken plenty of time off and is saying all the things you want to hear, but I’m going to wait a match and see. Pass.
Su Wei Hsieh -250 (1,40) vs Viktorija Golubic +200 (3,00) Total Games 20.5 Spread -/+ 4 games
I love Hsieh. She’s one of the smartest and most crafty players on tour. She finds weakness in her opponents game will exploit those shortcomings over and over again. Her only issue on clay is that she fails to generate any power. On such a slow surface her opponents will always have time to catch up to the ball. As much as I love Hsieh’s game, I would look to the underdog at this price. The issue is the underdog. Golubic had some nice play during the hard court season, but she generally struggles on the slow clay. Pass.
Alison Riske +155 (2,55) vs Andrea Petkovic -185 (1,54) Total Games 20.5 Spread +/- 3.5 games
This would be fun if the French Open was played on hard courts. It is not. Pass. All around. Don’t even watch this match.
Danielle Collins -365 (1,27) vs Tatjana Maria +285 (3,85) Total Games 20 Spread -/+ 5 games
I’m not sure Collins deserves to be this big of a favorite on clay, but I’m also sure that no one should ever bet on Tatjana Maria. Given that conundrum, pass.
Jessica Pegula +645 (7,45) vs Ashleigh Barty -1245 (1,08) Total Games 18 Spread +/- 6.5 games
I love Barty’s chances this fortnight. I have her to win her quarter and she deserves to be such a large favorite, but I don’t bet prices like these. Pass.
Mihaela Buzarnescu -215 (1,46) vs Ekaterina Alexandrova +175 (2,75) Total Games 21 Spread -/+ 4 games
Take a look at the numbers above and this price should make a lot of sense and I actually see some value on Buzarnescu. I can’t put together a realistic scenario where Buzarnescu loses unless she gets injured and retires which isn’t a loss. I’ll be looking to parlay Buz with someone else.
Barbora Strycova -200 (1,50) vs Sam Stosur +160 (2,60) Total Games 21 Spread -/+ 4 games
What year is it? Is it 2011? Maybe 2012? It turns out that, in fact, it is neither of those years, so I’m struggling to get excited for this match between two aging talents. Pass.
Aliona Bolsova +100 (2,00) vs Vera Zvonareva -130 (1,76) Total Games 21.5
Bolsova is the younger player and has some success on clay, albeit at lower levels. Zvonareva is a tour veteran, but hasn’t played at Roland Garros since 2011. In fact, she didn’t play a single clay match between 2012 and 2018 when she only played 4 matches on dirt. She’s 4-5 this year. I’d like to bet the dog, but there’s just not enough value in it for me. Pass.
Sorana Cirstea +475 (5,75) vs Petra Kvitova -675 (1,14) Total Games 19 Spread +/- 6 games
Kvitova is awesome and I’m not betting against unless she’s playing at top 5 talent. Cirstea is not a top 5 talent. Under 19 games is intriguing, but I’m going to pass.
Yulia Putintseva -145 (1,68) vs Rebecca Peterson +115 (2,15) Total Games 21
The numbers above do not include Putintseva’s title last week in Nurenberg. She’s playing incredible tennis, but I’m a little worried about her potential fatigue. Peterson is generally solid on the dirt but Puts is on fire. Pass.
Ludmilla Samsonova +335 (4,35) vs Donna Vekic -425 (1,23) Total Games 19 Spread +/- 5.5 games
Vekic is great on clay. I’m surprised she’s not mentioned as such more often, but she has a chance to make a run here. I hope she plays well and we get a chance to see her play against Kiki Bertens. She’s going to win this match, but I’m not sure how to bet it given the pricing. Pass.
Johanna Konta -490 (1,20) vs Anotonia Lottner +390 (4,90) Total Games 19 Spread -/+ 5.5 games
Konta has won more ranking points on clay this season than she has won on clay in her entire career before this year. She even made the final in Rome which features slow clay like we have this fortnight. Johanna has played 4 main draw matches at the French Open and has lost all 4. I can’t support her being such a big favorite. Lottner is 10-3 on the clay this season. She retired in her last match, but I think that was so she could make it Paris for qualifying. There’s some value on Lottner. It’s not a big bet, but I’m putting a quarter unit on Lottner.
Lauren Davis -110 (1,90) vs Kristyna Pliskova -120 (1,83) Total Games 21.5
Yuck. Pliskova the Lesser is a grinder. Lauren Davis is an American with little success in Europe. There’s plenty of other tennis to bet on and watch. Pass.
Viktoria Kuzmova -155 (1,64) vs Alize Cornet +125 (2,25) Total Games 21
This will be an exciting match. Kuzmova has a lot of talent, but necessarily the game for clay. I’m optimistic about her chances with more experience on the dirt, but that remains to be seen. Cornet is very comfortable on clay and playing front of a home crowd I expect to turn out and cheer loudly. This will be a great test for Kuzmova and I think we’ll learn a lot about her as a player. As for betting, the pricing seems about right. Pass.
Pauline Parmentier +675 (7,75) vs Kiki Bertens -1075 (1,09) Total Games 17.5 Spread +/- 6.5 games
I do not bet Kiki Bertens matches. If I bet on her she loses. If I bet against her she wins. Pass.
Astra Sharma -160 (1,62) vs Shelby Rogers +130 (2,30) Total Games 21.5
Rogers is on her comeback from a big injury. In her prime she would be a great value at this price, but that is not the case here. Sharma made a run to the finals in Bogota and has generally be solid on clay. This pricing looks about right. Pass.
Dayana Yastremska -150 (1,67) vs Carla Suarez Navarro +120 (2,20) Total Games 21
Yastremska just won the title in Strasbourg 2 days ago. I would love fade her here based on fatigue, but CSN has been pitiful this season. Her game is designed perfectly for these slow conditions and maybe she finds some form, but I can’t trust that. This is likely a cheap price on Yastremska, but I’m going to pass.
Elise Mertens -215 (1,46) vs Tamara Zidansek +175 (2,75) Total Games 20.5 Spread -/+ 4 games
Mertens is at her best on clay, but this season has been tough. She’s carrying a shoulder injury that isn’t bad enough to keep her from playing, but it is keeping her from playing her best tennis. Zidansek has everything you could ever want from a clay player. She lost the final in Putintseva last week, but played at a high level all week and has found some from. She’s coming off a long week, but she would be competitive with peak Mertens let alone injured Mertens. The fatigue is concerning, but I have to take Zidansek at this price. Half unit on Zidansek.
Diane Parry +245 (3,45) vs Vera Lapko -305 (1,32) Total Games 20 Spread +/- 4.5 games
Lapko should not be this big of a favorite but looking at Parry it seems she should somehow be a bigger underdog. Pass.
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova -195 (1,51) vs Mandy Minella +155 (2,55) Total Games 20.5 Spread -/+ 3.5 games
Outside of Fed Cup, Anastasia is only 9-10 this season. She is just 1-3 on clay in WTA events. She’s been in the top 40 for years, but has only made the quarterfinals in Roland Garros once in 2011. I find it hard to back her here and I’m hoping to grab the underdog. Minella likes clay, but she just isn’t in a form that I can back. Pass.
Luksika Kumkhum +665 (7,65) vs Anastasija Sevastova -1265 (1,07) Total Games 17.5 Spread +/- 6.5 games
The French Open is not a small event in Asia, so Kumkhum will not be winning any matches. Sevastova is great on clay and hopefully this is the beginning of a great fortnight. Pass.
Caroline Wozniacki -150 (1,67) vs Veronica Kudermetova +120 (2,20) Total Games 21 Spread -/+ 3 games
What a cheap price on Wozniacki. She is struggling with a flare up for rheumatoid arthritis, but you have to think she either is ok to play or retires. Kudermetova has played good tennis and continues to improve, but this is just disrespectful. I’ll look to parlay Wozniacki at a book that cancels on retirement in case she’s not feeling her best.
Zarina Diyas -670 (1,14) vs Audrey Albie +470 (5,70) Total Games 18.5 Spread -/+ 6 games
It’s pretty silly that Diyas would such a big favorite in a tennis match against any woman without a missing limb(s). Now from what I understand Albie does have all of her limbs in working order, but she’s lost to several women ranked in the 300s and 400s. I’m looking forward to fade Diyas next round, but I’ll pass on this match.
Shuai Zhang +115 (2,15) vs Varvara Lepchenko -145 (1,68) Total Games 21
Yuck. Another match you should skip in all ways. Pass.
Kaia Kanepi +100 (2,00) vs Julia Goerges -130 (1,76) Total Games 21
This would be a fun match on faster surface, but on the slow clay of Roland Garros it’s an odd matchup. It seems like a cheap price on Goerges, but the numbers above lead me to believe it will be a close match. I’m curious to see how the 2 look on the clay, but there’s no value in my opinion. Pass.
Quarter unit – Lottner +390 (4,90)
Half unit – Zidansek +175 (2,75)
Half unit – Parlay Wozniacki/Buzarnescu +145 (2,45)