Yesterday 0-3 -1.25 units.
Season to date 147-199-16 -36.14 Units Average Odds +105 Average Units/Bet 0.94
All of these lines come from a local book that I use. I will say this often, BE SURE TO CHECK THE PRICES AT ALL THE BOOKS YOU CAN ACCESS. One of the easiest ways to be a better bettor is get the best prices. I’m using lines from my local to try to teach this lesson and make sure what I post is widely available to those who read. I’m sure anything I post in here is offered at a better number somewhere, so be smart and check all your outs before placing your wager. The first number after each player’s name is their US odds with decimal odds in parenthesis. I’ll list total games for every match and spreads for matches with a spread greater than 2.5 games. Anything less than that and just take the moneyline, no need to risk a bagel or breadstick ruining your favorite spread.
As for staking, 1 unit = 1% of my bankroll. Do what you’d like, but I think is the best plan for the long term. Almost all bets will be 1 unit, sometimes less and rarely more. If it’s a favorite, then the bet is to win the number of units posted. For example, 1 unit on a -130 (1,77) is a 1.3 unit bet to win 1 unit. If it’s an underdog, then the bet is to risk the units posted. For example, 1 unit on +200 (3,00) is 1 unit to win 2 units. Feel free to DM @_Noops with any questions.
Naomi Osaka -985 (1,10) vs Anna Schmiedlova +635 (7,35) Total Games 18.5 Spread -/+ 6.5 games
Osaka has played the best clay tennis of her career this season and I’m excited to see what she can do here. She’s won the last 2 majors and proven clearly that she has the mental & physical fortitude to win a 2 week event. She should win this match, but her opponent is going to make her work for that victory. Schmiedlova is a grinder and loves the dirt. That’s a juicy moneyline, but I’m struggling to see how she actually gets the victory. The underdog spread is scary, because Osaka can hand out a 6-0/1/2 and things get dicey. I do think she has a chance to steal a set and +1.5 sets is +230 (3,30) at Nitrogen. I’m going to put a half unit on that.
Jelena Ostapenko +250 (3,50) vs Victoria Azarenka -310 (1,32) Total Games 20 Spread +/- 5 games
I wish we could back a few years when Ostapenko was better. She was so good, she actually won this event just 2 years ago. Now she is a big underdog to Azarenka, who is playing very well, but is not suited for these slow conditions. I might talk myself into a small wager on Ostapenko, but I can’t in good conscience advise others to do that. Pass.
Elena Rybakina +180 (2,80) vs Katerina Siniakova -230 (1,43) Total Games 21 Spread +/- 4 games
Siniakova is one of the best doubles players on tour and has earned a lot of name recognition as a result. That must be what’s driving this price, because she’s only 6-4 on clay this year with most of her wins against players ranked above 100. Rybakina actually already beat Siniakova on clay this season in Istanbul. Not a huge sample size, but my data above pushes me even further away from Siniakova. I like the underdog here. Half a unit on Rybakina.
Anna Tatishvili +1300 (14,00) vs Maria Sakkari -4000 (1,02) Total Games 16.5 Spread +/- 7.5 games
This might be the biggest favorite I’ve ever seen. Sakkari has flames shooting out of her butt. She’s 13-4 on clay this season with a phenomenal hold+break and a title in Rabat. Tatishvili is #797 in the world. There’s just nothing you can do with this pricing. Pass.
Caroline Garcia -430 (1,23) vs Mona Barthel +340 (4,40) Total Games 19.5 Spread -/+ 5 games
Garcia found her form in Stasbourg last week making a run to the final. She lost in 3 sets, but played very well. She’s playing in front of a home crowd that should give all the support she needs. Everything is place for a good run this fortnight and I expect her to come out and win this match comfortably. Barthel doesn’t have the talent to beat Garcia. My only hesitation is the potential physical fatigue coming off a long week and the mental fatigue of finishing second. Pass.
Anna Blinkova -140 (1,71) vs Margarita Gasparyan +110 (2,10) Total Games 21
Gasparyan played 0 matches on clay in 2017 & 2018. She’s 5-3 on clay this year. Blinkova’s numbers above are better, but pay attention to the average rank of competition. She spends most of time playing lower level events, not grand slams. I expect Gasparyan to win, but I just can’t trust such a small sample size of success. Pass.
Timea Babos -245 (1,40) vs Priscilla Hon +195 (2,95) Total Games 20.5 Spread -/+ 4 games
It’s very silly that Timea Babos, a hard court, lower level grinder, is such a big favorite at the French Open. It’s even sillier to bet on Priscilla Hon. I’m looking forward to betting against whoever wins this match next round. Pass.
Evgeniya Rodina +705 (8,05) vs Madison Keys -1105 (1,09) Total Games 18 Spread +/- 7 games
Keys loves grand slam events. Madislam has won at least 1 match in her last 19 slams. Rodina is 2-13 this season and has never won a main draw match in Rolland Garros. It’s just an insane price. Pass.
Simona Halep -585 (1,17) vs Ajla Tomljanovic +485 (5,85) Total Games 18.5 Spread -/+ 6 games
The defending champion should roll here. Ajla has been good all season, but this is not her surface and not her event. This pricing feels about right. Maybe under 18.5 games if you have to do anything, but I’m going to pass.
Chloe Paquet +115 (2,15) vs Magda Linette -145 (1,68) Total Games 21
The data above is pretty close, but I think Paquet should be favored in this match. Linetter hasn’t won a match since April. Paquet is coming off a run to quarterfinals in Strasourg which means she’s in form and had an extra day or 2 of rest. She’s a local wild card and will have the full support of the crowd. I’m taking the local underdog. Full unit on Paquet.
Daria Gavrilova -210 (1,47) vs Aleksandra Krunic +170 (2,70) Total Games 20.5 Spread -/+ 3.5 games
This match makes me sad. It should be 2 grinders playing long volleys and hitting winners on the move. Instead, it will probably be a mess. Don’t even watch this. Pass.
Genie Bouchard +155 (2,55) vs Lesia Tsurenko -195 (1,51) Total Games 21 Spread +/- 3.5 games
An Instagram model & social media influencer will be moonlighting and playing some tennis for the first time since March. The sad part is that I want to bet on Genie here. She showed some talent earlier in the season, but this will be her first match on clay. Tsurenko is terrible on clay. I was so excited to fade her as a seeded player, but I cannot. Pass.
Daria Kasatkina -415 (1,24) vs Jasmine Paolini +325 (4,25) Total Games 19.5 Spread -/+ 5 games
Kasatkina had a tough start to the season, but has found some form on the dirt. It’s her best surface and she seems to be settling in nicely. Paolini liks clay, but there’s not much that she does better than Kasatkina. Pricing looks about right as Daria should advance without much trouble. Maybe under 19.5 games, but I’m going to pass.
Monica Puig -330 (1,30) vs Kirsten Flipkens +260 (3,60) Total Games 20 Spread -/+ 4.5 games
The numbers above tell the story. Puig has been winning matches comfortably on clay and Flipkens hasn’t won at all. Puig -4.5 is probably half a game short, but I’ll pass. Puig might be a good parlay piece.
Iga Swiatek -2500 (1,04) vs Selena Janicijevic +1100 (12,00) Total Games 17 Spread -/+ 7.5 games
Swiatek is another young, rising star in the WTA. She has lit up the clay this year only losing 2 of her 7 matches on the dirt and even made the final in Lugano. I’m excited to see what she can do at this event. I’ve never heard her opponent’s name before and will refrain from trying to spell it again. She’s a 17 year old ITF, local wild card. I hope she enjoys the moment, because it should be short. Pass.
Saisai Zheng +195 (2,95) vs Qiang Wang -245 (1,40) Total Games 20 Spread +/- 4 games
What month is it? Is this a hard court, international event in China? It’s very strange for me to see these 2 meet outside of Asia, let alone on clay. Zheng’s numbers are better, but she plays mostly at lower levels. Wang is more talented and there’s not much Zheng can do to trouble her. Wang should win this match and the pricing looks about right to me. Pass.
Aryna Sabalenka -160 (1,62) vs Dominika Cibulkova +130 (2,30) Total Games 21 Spread -/+ 3 games
Sabalenka finally found some form in Strasbourg last week winning 3 matches before running into the Yastremska buzzsaw in the semifinals. The once grinderific Cibulkova is a shell of herself. I think Sabalenka wins this match fairly easily and I’m very surprised the price is so cheap. I’m going to parlay her with someone to lessen the juice.
Amanda Anisimova -1225 (1,08) vs Harmony Tan +625 (7,25) Total Games 18.5 Spread -/+ 6.5 games
Simple handicap. Anisimova is good. Tan is not good, pass.
Irina Camelia Begu -560 (1,17) vs Lin Zhu +410 (5,10) Total Games 18.5 Spread -/+ 6 games
Begu is a solid clay courter and deserves to be such a big favorite. This will be Zhu’s 3rd clay match and she is 1-2. Her win was a 3 set struggle over #232 which she followed up with a lost to #358. She played in Strasbourg last week and won only 1 game in her match. The pricing looks about right though, so I’ll pass.
Karolina Muchova +130 (2,30) vs Anett Kontaveit -160 (1,62) Total Games 21 Spread +/- 3 games
This is going to be a great match. Kontaveit is a top level clay player and has a change to make some noise this fortnight. Muchova is a rising young talent who made the final in Prague and just keeps getting better each time I see her play. It should be a tight match and I think we see 3 sets. Given the price on the over and historical averages, we’ve got a 12% edge at +175 (2,75) which is available at Bovada. Half unit on over 2.5 sets.
Half unit – Schmiedlova +1.5 sets +230 (3,30)
Half unit – Rybakina +180 (2,80)
Full unit – Paquet +110 (2,10)
Full unit – parlay Sabalenka/Puig +110 (2,10)
Half unit – over 2.5 sets Kontaveit/Muchova +175 (2,75)