Yesterday 11-10 +3.82 units.
Season to date 158-209-16 -32.31 Units
All of these lines come from a local book that I use. I will say this often, BE SURE TO CHECK THE PRICES AT ALL THE BOOKS YOU CAN ACCESS. One of the easiest ways to be a better bettor is get the best prices. I’m using lines from my local to try to teach this lesson and make sure what I post is widely available to those who read. I’m sure anything I post in here is offered at a better number somewhere, so be smart and check all your outs before placing your wager. The first number after each player’s name is their US odds with decimal odds in parenthesis. I’ll list total games for every match and spreads for matches with a spread greater than 2.5 games. Anything less than that and just take the moneyline, no need to risk a bagel or breadstick ruining your favorite spread.
As for staking, 1 unit = 1% of my bankroll. Do what you’d like, but I think is the best plan for the long term. Almost all bets will be 1 unit, sometimes less and rarely more. If it’s a favorite, then the bet is to win the number of units posted. For example, 1 unit on a -130 (1,77) is a 1.3 unit bet to win 1 unit. If it’s an underdog, then the bet is to risk the units posted. For example, 1 unit on +200 (3,00) is 1 unit to win 2 units. Feel free to DM @_Noops with any questions.
Naomi Osaka -300 (1,33) vs Katerina Siniakova +235 (3,35) Total Games 20 Spread -/+ 4.5 games
The #1 player in the world, who’s ranking is now safe thanks to Karolina Pliskova’s loss, has had a tough go of things in her first 2 matches. It took her 3 sets to beat Schmiedlova and there were definitely moments where her victory was in question. She dropped the first set again in her second match against Azarenka, but showed grit in coming back to win 2-1. Siniakova crushed Rybakina, who’s solid on the dirt, and knocked off arguably the hottest player on tour in Maria Sakkari. Katerina is a wildly talent player, but in a wildly inconsistent way. She could win this match 2-0 and be the talk of Paris or lose 2-0 and be a footnote in yet another long grand slam run for Osaka. Given how uncomfortable Osaka has looked and the potential high level Siniakova can reach I’m going to grab the moneyline. The implied probability is 29.85% and I think there’s a greater chance than that Siniakova is able to it enough winners to advance. That said, this is a moneyline or nothing situation. Osaka likes to hand out carbs and Siniakova doesn’t mind eating them which makes the underdog spread problematic. Half unit on the moneyline.
Anna Blinkova +290 (3,90) vs Madison Keys -375 (1,27) Total Games 19.5 Spread +/- 5 games
I’m surprised to see Blinkova in this match. I was very excited for Caroline Garcia to be here, but, alas, she let me down winning the first set 6-1, but losing in 3 sets. I have to give some love to @cullycat1 for pointing this out to me. Blinkova has now won 10 matches in a row that went to a 3rd set on clay. In fact, 7 of her last 10 matches went 3 sets. Looking into that market, I see over 2.5 sets at +225 (3,25) at Bovada and I love that. Even before considering Blinkova’s recent run and the fact that Keys is no stranger to dropping a set on dirt, I have a 12% edge based on historical averages. Half unit on over 2.5 sets and in honor of @cullycat1, .1 units on Blinkova 2-1 +550 (6,50).
Serena Williams -500 (1,20) vs Sofia Kenin +340 (4,40) Total Games 19.5 Spread -/+ 5.5 games
I have no idea what to do with Serena Williams. If she’s healthy she should easily overwhelm Kenin with power and angles. If she’s not healthy, Kenin could overwork her and cause a breakdown. Is she healthy? I have no idea. If you know, please reach out and let me know. Thanks. Pass.
Andrea Petkovic +400 (5,00) vs Ashleigh Barty -600 (1,17) Total Games 19 Spread +/- 5.5 games
Myself and preview readers are holding a Barty 6-1 to win the quarter ticket. I have no concern that she fails to advance, but this price seems aggressive. She doesn’t have good clay numbers, but she gritted out a tough match over Hsieh and has reached the semifinals here before. Again, I don’t think she wins nor do I have any interest in betting her, but the numbers sticks out to me. Pass.
Simona Halep -1400 (1,07) vs Lesia Tsurenko +750 (8,50) Total Games 18 Spread -/+ 6.5 games
It’s pretty dumb that Tsurenko has made it this far. She got lucky with a late match and was able to defeat Krunic early the next morning after the overnight break. She was lucky enough to draw an Instragram model in round 1. There are so many better players that I would rather see in this spot, but here we are. Halep has seen her first 2 matches go 3 sets, but looked dominant in those closing sets. If I were her, I would see an opportunity to win quickly and get some rest. The under 18 games is very juicy at -130 (1,77) so I have no interest in that and -6.5 games is not a number I lay. Pass, hope this is quick, and be happy we’re rid of Tsurenko in a clay event.
Monica Puig +130 (2,30) vs Iga Swiatek -160 (1,62) Total Games 21 Spread +/- 3 games
The market has hammered Swiatek. She opened as small favorite at -105 (1,95) and has gotten all the way here. That’s a change in implied probability (aka closing line value) of 20.4% (51.3% to 61.7%). Well done to all who grabbed that early number, but at this point the value is long gone. Swiatek is an amazing young talent and I would love to see her win this match to meet Halep in the next round. Puig, however, is no easy task. Since working with Kamau Murry she’s raised her game and could be a tough out in this match. Just enjoy the watch here, because all the pricing is appropriate at this point. Pass.
Amanda Anisimova -245 (1,41) vs Irina Camelia Begu +195 (2,95) Total Games 20.5 Spread -/+ 4 games
Anisimova is having kind of a funny clay season. She won the title in Bogota, but is 2-4 in her other clay matches. She smoked the inferior Harmony Tan in round 1 and continued her dominance over Aryna the Amazonian Warrior Sabalenka in round 2. Begu is a grinder and can take advantage of the younger, less experienced players like we saw in round 2 as she defeated Muchova. I think Anisimova wins this match, but I expect Begu to be competitive and even take a set. +4 games is about right and over 20.5 games is appealing, but even better than that is over 2.5 sets at +190 (2,90) at Bovada. We have about a 10% edge over historical averages. Half unit on over 2.5 sets.
Ekaterina Alexandrova -150 (1,67) vs Aliona Bolsova +115 (2,15) Total Games 21.5
I think the wrong woman is favored here. Alexandrova has a solid serve and a solid head on her shoulders, but she is not a clay player. She shocked Buzarnescu in round 1. I think that says more about Buz than it does Alexandrova. Mihaela continues to struggle to find her once great form on the dirt. Alexandrova’s hold+break over the last year is right around 80 which is just downright awful. Bolsova’s hold+break is 107 over the last year and although she’s played mostly higher ranked players, that is still a massive difference. She’s played 5 matches at Rolan Garros, including qualifying, and has only dropped 1 set. Full unit on Bolsova.
Half unit – Siniakova +235 (3,35)
Half unit – Blinkova/Keys over 2.5 sets +225 (3,25)
.1 unit – Blinkova wins 2-1 +550 (6,50)
Half unit – Anisimova/Begu over 2.5 sets +190 (2,90)
Full unit – Bolsova +115 (2,15)