Yesterday 3-2 +2.85 units
Season to date 161-21-16 -29.46 Units
All of these lines come from a local book that I use. I will say this often, BE SURE TO CHECK THE PRICES AT ALL THE BOOKS YOU CAN ACCESS. One of the easiest ways to be a better bettor is get the best prices. I’m using lines from my local to try to teach this lesson and make sure what I post is widely available to those who read. I’m sure anything I post in here is offered at a better number somewhere, so be smart and check all your outs before placing your wager. The first number after each player’s name is their US odds with decimal odds in parenthesis. I’ll list total games for every match and spreads for matches with a spread greater than 2.5 games. Anything less than that and just take the moneyline, no need to risk a bagel or breadstick ruining your favorite spread.
As for staking, 1 unit = 1% of my bankroll. Do what you’d like, but I think is the best plan for the long term. Almost all bets will be 1 unit, sometimes less and rarely more. If it’s a favorite, then the bet is to win the number of units posted. For example, 1 unit on a -130 (1,77) is a 1.3 unit bet to win 1 unit. If it’s an underdog, then the bet is to risk the units posted. For example, 1 unit on +200 (3,00) is 1 unit to win 2 units. Feel free to DM @_Noops with any questions.
Kaia Kanepi +195 (2,95) vs Petra Martic -265 (1,37) Total Games 20.5 Spread +/- 4 games
Petra Martic is having an incredibly good clay season. She made the semifinals in Charleston, won Istanbul, made the quarterfinals in Madrid, and as only lost 12 games in her 3 matches so far at the French Open. She beat a red hot Mladenovic 2 & 1 and Pliskova the Greater 3 & 3. Her hold+break on dirt this year is just shy of 110. Kanepi has been much less impressive on clay. She has a hold+break just under 100 and her 3 wins in this event have anything but easy. I’m struggling to think of a way Martic loses this match, but that pricing looks about right to me. There’s probably some value in the moneyline, but looking ahead I don’t think I’ll find a parlay partner. Feel free to link her up with something in other sports and be sure to get her in your daily fantasy lineups. Pass on a prematch wager.
Marketa Vondrousova -230 (1,43) vs Anastasija Sevastova +180 (2,80) Total Games 21 Spread -/+ 3.5 games
If you’re a follower of my previews, daily write ups, and a loyal listener to the @NetWorthPod then you should be holding a Sevastova outright ticket at 50-1 and a Vondrousova outright ticket at 100-1 or better. What a great spot to be in for us. Looking at the match itself I’m surprised Vondrousova is such a big favorite. She has been incredible this season with a record of 25-6 on the year and 10-2 on clay. Her hold+break rates are great, but that line is close to the pricing we saw in Martic/Kanepi. Sevastova is much better than Kanepi and has a very real chance to win this match. Her hold+break numbers haven’t got up to previous seasons yet, but she’s looked good this week and her 3 set win over Mertens was impressive. Vondrousova has yet to be challenged and I think this will be a dog fight. I’m going to put half a unit on Sevastova and a half unit on over 2.5 sets. Over 2.5 sets at Bovada is +190 which offers us a 13% edge.
Donna Vekic -110 (1,90) vs Johanna Konta -110 (1,90) Total Games 21.5
Johanna Konta has won more ranking points on clay this season than she has in her entire career before this season. That’s insane. I’m not sure what change she made or what she figured out, but it has been a tremendous transformation. She made the title match in Rabat, went to Madrid for 2 matches, and made final in Rome the week after that. Very impressive, but that’s a lot of tennis. She’s played 15 matches in the last 30 days with a few days of travel as well. I have to think at some point fatigue is going to set in and either her legs give out or her brain starts to get away from all the good things she’s been doing. As good as Konta has been, Vekic has been good herself. She did have to retire in the 3rd set againt Martic in Madrid, but she’s played well in all 3 matches the last week included smoking Belinda Bencic 4 & 1. Vekic’s hold+break the last few years on clay have been 110+ which is elite. This price seems entirely based on Konta’s recent hot streak and gives little attention to her potential fatigue and how good Vekic really is on the dirt. I’m going to take Vekic for a full unit. She should be favored in this match.
Sloane Stephens +120 (2,20) vs Garbiñe Muguruza -150 (1,67) Total Games 21.5
Ugh, betting on or against Garbiñe is not good for your heart. Sometimes we see Muguruthless who can overwhelm opponents with her talent and aggressive play. Other times we see Garbagiñe Muguruseless who loves to hit errors and looks disinterested in what’s happening. For the sake of this handicap, I’m going to assume we see Muguruthless. She’s looked great against Svitolina last round and demolished Larsson the round before that. Sloane Stephens is coming off a battle against Polona Hercog. She took a 2 break lead early and won the first 6-3. She was up a break in the 2nd, but Hercog got back to level and broke Sloane late to take the 2nd 7-5. This is a spot where Sloane normally gets frazzled and begins to fall apart, but she did not. Hercog kept up the pressure all set, but Sloane took the deciding set 6-4. Her hold+break on clay this season is suffer a little from a few not so great perfomances in Charleston which features a harder, green clay and not the slow, red clay we have in Roland Garros. Sloane looks to be finding some form and even Muguruthless will struggle with top level Sloane. This is a great price on last year’s 2nd place finisher. Full unit on Sloane.
Half unit – Sevastova +180 (2,80)
Half unit – Sevastova/Vondrousova over 2.5 sets +190 (2,90)
Full unit – Vekic -110 (1,90)
Full unit – Stephens +120 (2,20)