Yesterday 1-3 -0.90 units
Season to date 162-214-16 -30.36 Units
All of these lines come from a local book that I use. I will say this often, BE SURE TO CHECK THE PRICES AT ALL THE BOOKS YOU CAN ACCESS. One of the easiest ways to be a better bettor is get the best prices. I’m using lines from my local to try to teach this lesson and make sure what I post is widely available to those who read. I’m sure anything I post in here is offered at a better number somewhere, so be smart and check all your outs before placing your wager. The first number after each player’s name is their US odds with decimal odds in parenthesis. I’ll list total games for every match and spreads for matches with a spread greater than 2.5 games. Anything less than that and just take the moneyline, no need to risk a bagel or breadstick ruining your favorite spread.
As for staking, 1 unit = 1% of my bankroll. Do what you’d like, but I think is the best plan for the long term. Almost all bets will be 1 unit, sometimes less and rarely more. If it’s a favorite, then the bet is to win the number of units posted. For example, 1 unit on a -130 (1,77) is a 1.3 unit bet to win 1 unit. If it’s an underdog, then the bet is to risk the units posted. For example, 1 unit on +200 (3,00) is 1 unit to win 2 units. Feel free to DM @_Noops with any questions.
Sofia Kenin +305 (4,05) vs Ashleigh Barty -425 (1,24) Total Games 20 Spread +/- 5 games
Kenin is coming off one of her biggest wins on tour defeating Serena Williams and in just 2 sets no less. Ashleigh Barty has looked comfortable all week and has yet to drop a set at Roland Garros. This should be a good match, but I expect Barty to win. Myself and followers are holding a Barty to win the quarter ticket at 6-1 and I will not be hedging here even though the price on Kenin is actually a little appealing. Like I said, Barty should win, but that’s an expensive price. Kenin is on the ever expanding list of promising young talents in the WTA. She had success on hard courts to start the year winning Hobart and making the final in Acapulco and has shown some aptitude for the slower clay in Rome and here at the French Open. Most importantly, she has mental fortitude which is a paramount in grand slams. I’m not going to be her to win, but she should be competitive and make this a long match. I like over 20 games and over 2.5 sets at +230 (3,30) at Bovada offers a 13%+ edge. I’ll put half a unit on each.
Simona Halep -575 (1,17) vs Iga Swiatek +400 (5,00) Total Games 19.5 Spread -/+ 5.5 games
I’ve been looking forward to this match all week. Halep is the best clay courter in the WTA in my opinion. Swiatek is pushing herself to the top of the list of promising young players. My only hesitation is that both players have had back issues. Halep’s season last year ended after a back injury and we’ve seen it flare up a few times this season. Although she’s looked healthy so far that’s an injury that can pop up anytime and generally gets worse as she plays longer. Swiatek got bageled in the first set of her last match and called for an MTO during which she was treated for a back injury. She was able to recover and win the next 2 sets to make this match possible. Hopefully both are healthy and playing their best tennis. Looking at the price I see some value on the younger player. She’s lost only 2 matches on clay all year and held leads in both. Halep is a great player, but not a power player so Iga should have a chance to dictate some points. I’m going to put half a unit on Swiatek to win the match and half a unit on over 2.5 sets at +230 (3,30) at Bovada which offers an edge of about 10%. This is a huge chance for her to make herself known and I think she will rise to the challenge and play some great tennis.
Katerina Siniakova +120 (2,20) vs Madison Keys -150 (1,67) Total Games 21.5
Siniakova knocked off the world number 1 last round and it appears the markets have taken notice. I was shocked to see this match lined so closely. Although I think this line is right, its speaks volumes for how the market has responded to Siniakova’s win and Keys’ struggles. As I wrote yesterday, Siniakova at her best can be incredible. I was hoping for a chance to bet her in this match, but this pricing is uninspiring at best. Stupid efficient market :( Keys is a great player and raises her level in slams, but slow, outdoor clay is her worst surface. This last week she almost lost to Blinkova and dropped a set to Hon who is nowhere near her level of talent. This is a great spot for the underdog, but I just don’t like the price. Pass.
Amanda Anisimova -325 (1,30) vs Aliona Bolsova +265 (3,65) Total Games 20.5 Spread -/+ 4.5 games
Bolsova has had an impressive run this last week and won us a few bets. She is just shy of 22 years old and has a bright future ahead of her on clay. She’s won 6 matches at Roland Garros already, but looking at the six names none stick out as an impressive win. She beat Ahn, Xu, & Babos in qualifying and then beat Zvonareva, Cirstea, & Alexandrova in the main draw. All of those are women I would expect her to beat on clay. Anisimova will be a much different and more challenging test. She struggled a little in her last match against Begu but has been great all season and her last few clay events. I think the underdog has a chance, but I’m not interested at these prices. Pass.
Half unit – Kenin/Barty over 20 games -110 (1,90)
Half unit – Kenin/Barty over 2.5 sets +230 (3,30)
Half unit – Swiatek +400 (5,00)
Half unit – Halep/Swiatek +230 (3,30)