Yesterday 2-2 +0.65 units
Season to date 164-216-16 -29.71 Units
All of these lines come from a local book that I use. I will say this often, BE SURE TO CHECK THE PRICES AT ALL THE BOOKS YOU CAN ACCESS. One of the easiest ways to be a better bettor is get the best prices. I’m using lines from my local to try to teach this lesson and make sure what I post is widely available to those who read. I’m sure anything I post in here is offered at a better number somewhere, so be smart and check all your outs before placing your wager. The first number after each player’s name is their US odds with decimal odds in parenthesis. I’ll list total games for every match and spreads for matches with a spread greater than 2.5 games. Anything less than that and just take the moneyline, no need to risk a bagel or breadstick ruining your favorite spread.
As for staking, 1 unit = 1% of my bankroll. Do what you’d like, but I think is the best plan for the long term. Almost all bets will be 1 unit, sometimes less and rarely more. If it’s a favorite, then the bet is to win the number of units posted. For example, 1 unit on a -130 (1,77) is a 1.3 unit bet to win 1 unit. If it’s an underdog, then the bet is to risk the units posted. For example, 1 unit on +200 (3,00) is 1 unit to win 2 units. Feel free to DM @_Noops with any questions.
Sloane Stephens -150 (1,67) vs Johanna Konta +120 (2,20) Total Games 21.5
Johanna Konta just keeps winning matches on clay. She had never won a main draw match at Roland Garros before this year. Now she’s in a quarterfinal. She even beat Sloane already on similarly slow clay in Rome. It’s truly perplexing. Sloane looked great last week. She only dropped 1 set to Hercog and responded with a dominant performance over Muguruza in her next match. Against Garbiñe, she held 80% of her service games and won 44% of return games. These results are not included in what you see above in the table. Sloane made the final here last year and was mere games away from the title. For her career she has a better overall pedigree than Konta and is especially better on the dirt. This seems like a cheap opportunity to bet Sloane. I just can’t believe Konta continues to be this successful on clay and I think the recent head to head is suppressing Sloane’s pricing. Full unit on Stephens.
Marketa Vondrousova -160 (1,62) vs Petra Martic +130 (2,30) Total Games 21.5
This is going to be a great match. Vondrousova is 22-6 on the season with 2 title trips. She lost to Alison Van Uytvanck in Budapest and lost the final in Istanbul to none other than Petra Martic. Vondrousova took the first set 6-1, but Martic came back to win the second set 6-4 and hand out her own breadstick in the 3rd. In fact, Martic is 4-0 head to head against Vondrousova. Martic is a smart player and can be trouble for younger players like the 19 year old Czech. The pricing on the moneyline looks about right to me. If you have a future on Vondrousova, like myself, now is the time to start hedging. At the very least bet enough on Martic to cover your Vondrousova outright stake. Looking at the total, I see value in the over 2.5 sets market. Based on the total and historical averages, the price for over 2.5 set should be +133 (2,33), but Bovada is offering +160 (2,60). I’ll put half a unit on over 2.5 sets.
Full unit – Stephens -150 (1,67)
Half unit – Vondrousova/Martic over 2.5 sets +160 (2,60)