Yesterday 0-2 -2.00 units
Season to date 164-216-16 -31.71 Units
All of these lines come from a local book that I use. I will say this often, BE SURE TO CHECK THE PRICES AT ALL THE BOOKS YOU CAN ACCESS. One of the easiest ways to be a better bettor is get the best prices. I’m using lines from my local to try to teach this lesson and make sure what I post is widely available to those who read. I’m sure anything I post in here is offered at a better number somewhere, so be smart and check all your outs before placing your wager. The first number after each player’s name is their US odds with decimal odds in parenthesis. I’ll list total games for every match and spreads for matches with a spread greater than 2.5 games. Anything less than that and just take the moneyline, no need to risk a bagel or breadstick ruining your favorite spread.
As for staking, 1 unit = 1% of my bankroll. Do what you’d like, but I think is the best plan for the long term. Almost all bets will be 1 unit, sometimes less and rarely more. If it’s a favorite, then the bet is to win the number of units posted. For example, 1 unit on a -130 (1,77) is a 1.3 unit bet to win 1 unit. If it’s an underdog, then the bet is to risk the units posted. For example, 1 unit on +200 (3,00) is 1 unit to win 2 units. Feel free to DM @_Noops with any questions.
Madison Keys +150 (2,50) vs Ashleigh Barty -180 (1,56) Total Games 22 Spread +/- 3 games
Just another quarterfinals for Madislam Keys. She has made the quarterfinals or better in 6 of her last 8 grand slam appearances. She continues to be able to play well without the help of a coach and know how to pace herself over 2 long weeks. This will be the second grand slam quarterfinal this season for Barty, but also the second in her career. Oddly enough, I would think both would prefer a faster surface, but they’ve found a way to adapt to the slow clay at Roland Garros. Taking a look at the stats above the pricing on the moneyline and spread look about right. Barty has had more success on the surface, but Keys will have her chances to win the match. I love Barty’s game. Although she’s not one of the taller players on tour, she manages to be one of the better servers on tour. She moves very well, creates spin, and plays intelligently. I expect her to remain in the top 10 for a long a time. Keys doesn’t move as well, but serves just as well, if not better, and has tremendous power allowing her to hit winners a lot of other women cannot. She’s also very smart and doesn’t succumb to her nerves in big moments. This match should be played a very high level with both women having their chances, but more times than not I would expect Barty to be the victor. I’m going to pass on the moneyline, but if you have any Barty futures now would be the time to consider hedging. I hedged my Barty 6-1 to win the quarter bet. The total is a massive 22 or some places a very expensive 21.5 games. Given how big the total is and the likelihood that a match going over 21.5/22 is also going over 2.5 sets the price on over 2.5 sets should be +133 (2,33), but Bovada is nice enough to offer us +160 (2,60) which offers an edge of 11%. I’m going to put a full unit on over 2.5 sets.
Simona Halep -545 (1,18) vs Amanda Anisimova +395 (4,95) Total Games 19.5 Spread -/+ 5.5 games
For the second match in a row the world’s best woman on clay faces a promising young talent. Simona smoked young Iga Swiatek losing only 1 game in their 2 set match. This is Halep’s second quick 2 setter allowing her a lot of time to recover. She’s the defending champion at this event and finished second the year before that. She loves the slow dirt. Her hold+break numbers are regularly 120 or better. She was the favorite to win this event and continues to be just that. The pricing above may look expensive, but it is deservedly so. As excited as I am about the young American, I’m not sure what Anisimova can do, but hope Halep is not her best. Anisimova is a great player, but often relies on her opponents’ pace and poor second serve to create powerful return shots. Halep is not a power player who’s going to generate power to Anisimova to redirect and Halep gets about 74% of her first serves in limiting Anisimova’s opportunities to attack second serves. I don’t expect Anisimova to be afraid of the moment, but I’m not sure that’s her biggest problem in this match. I hope she can be competitive, but I can’t rely on it. All the pricing here looks about right to me. Pass.
Full unit – Keys/Barty over 2.5 sets +160 (2,60)