Season to date 101-122-13 -10.65 Units Average Odds +105 Average Units/Bet 0.97
All of these lines come from a local book that I use. I will say this often, BE SURE TO CHECK THE PRICES AT ALL THE BOOKS YOU CAN ACCESS. One of the easiest ways to be a better bettor is get the best prices. I’m using lines from my local to try to teach this lesson and make sure what I post is widely available to those who read. I’m sure anything I post in here is offered at a better number somewhere, so be smart and check all your outs before placing your wager. The first number after each player’s name is their US odds with decimal odds in parenthesis. I’ll list total games for every match and spreads for matches with a spread greater than 2.5 games. Anything less than that and just take the moneyline, no need to risk a bagel or breadstick ruining your favorite spread.
As for staking, 1 unit = 1% of my bankroll. Do what you’d like, but I think is the best plan for the long term. Almost all bets will be 1 unit, sometimes less and rarely more. If it’s a favorite then the bet is to win the number of units posted. For example, 1 unit on a -130 (1,77) is a 1.3 unit bet to win 1 unit. If it’s an underdog, then the bet is to risk the units posted. For example, 1 unit on +200 (3,00) is 1 unit to win 2 units. Feel free to DM @_Noops with any questions.
Sara Sorribes Tormo -250 (1,40) vs Fanny Stollar +200 (3,00) Total Games 20 Spread -/+ 4 games
Last year’s clay numbers like Stollar a lot here, but she hasn’t won a tennis match round 1 of qualifying in the Australian Open. Tormo has been winning matches at a WTA level which is pretty good for her. Last year Tormo’s only success on clay was at the ITF or Challenger level. +4 games is about right, but there’s some value in +200. Give me Stollar for half a unit.
Anna-Lena Friedsam +265 (3,65) vs Tamara Zidansek -335 (1,30) Total Games 19.5 Spread +/- 5 games
Zidansek should roll here. I have an outright ticket on her 100-1 and I think she can make some noise in the quarter. The moneyline and spread are right. Friedsam is back after a long hiatus from tennis. She played 2 ITF matches on carpet and 1 match in Miami. She hasn’t played a match on clay since 2016. Zidansek a quality young player who likes clay a lot. Pricing looks good. Pass.
Magda Linette +210 (3,10) vs Ajla Tomljanovic -260 (1,38) Total Games 20.5 Spread +/- 4 games
Numbers from last year look pretty close, but the average rank faced by Tomljanovic gives her the edge in that regard. Tomljanovic is 3-0 life time over Linette has been playing better tennis in general. Linette won 3 matches in Hua Hin which is her longest run in one tournament. Ajla has been playing and beating top 50 talent this season. She deserves to be such a big favorite. Pass.
Jelena Ostapenko -380 (1,26) vs Johanna Larsson +300 (4,00) Total Games 19 Spread -/+ 5.5 games
Ostapenko is 2-0 lifetime, but both matches were back when she was playing at a much higher level. She’s 4-8 on the year and hasn’t looked inspiring at any point. At +300 I’m looking for an excuse to be on Larsson, but I can’t find one. Ostapenko’s clay numbers were good and she might start to find some form this time of year. Larsson has been bad this year and was bad on clay last year. Pass.
Shelby Rogers +110 (2,10) vs Evgeniya Rodina -140 (1,71) Total Games 21
I have no idea who Shelby Rogers is. This is her first match since playing just 2 matches in 2018. How on Earth is someone who hasn’t played in a competitive match for over a year such a small underdog? Enter Evgeniya Rodina. She’s 2-9 this year and has looked just awful all year. She was bad on clay last year. She’s been bad this year. So she’s probably going to be bad here. Pass.
Natalia Vikhlyantseva -115 (1,87) vs Tatjana Maria -115 (1,87) Total Games 21
Maria beat Vikhlyantseva 1 & 2 on hards last year in Limoes. Maria also beat Sloane Stephens and Camila Girogi in Miami. Neither had success on clay last year. All of these things are driving a cheap price to take the better player. Natalia looked great in Indian Wells and has played well all season. She’s the younger player on the rise and Maria is getting too much credit for recent big wins. Full unit on Vikhlyantseva.
Sara Errani +125 (2,25) vs Monica Puig -155 (1,65) Total Games 21
Errani was much better on clay last year, but he hasn’t played much tennis and the little tennis she has played hasn’t looked very good. Puig did very little last year, but she has played some tennis this year and some of it wasn’t awful. This kind of a mess. If Errani wins this convincingly I’ll look to bet her the rest of the week, but I have to pass for now.
Sabine Lisicki +370 (4,70) vs Sofia Kenin -520 (1,19) Total Games 19.5 Spread +/- 5.5 games
Lisicki hasn’t played a competitive clay match since 2016. Kenin was 2-6 on clay last year. Kenin has a much better pedigree, but I’m really not sure she’s worth being such a big favorite. That said, how can I trust someone who hasn’t played a clay match in over 2 years? She’s only played 3 matches this year and lost all 3. Pass.
Pauline Parmentier -120 (1,83) vs Allie Kiick -110 (1,91) Total Games 21
The stats above are WTA matches only. I was surprised to see this line so close at first glance. Parmentier was a solid WTA level clay player last year. Looking at ITF and Challenger shows a much better Kiick. She made 2 finals and a few other deep runs. I’m just going pass. Nothing of any real substance to grasp.
Mandy Minella +100 (2,00) vs Anna Schmiedlova -130 (1,77) Total Games 21
Jessica Pegula -290 (1,34) vs Irina Khromacheva +240 (3,40) Total Games 20.5 Spread -/+ 4.5 games
Both of these players have had success on clay, but at lower levels. Khromacheva won Anning with is a WTA level event, but her average competition faced in that tournament was around 300. Pegula had some long runs in ITF and Challenger events. I think this should be a close match. Pegula should be the favorite. She’s very talented and getting better with every match she plays, but Khromacheva will like the surface. I’m going to put half a unit on Khromacheva. This should be +180 (2,80).
Destanee Aiava +290 (3,90) vs Belinda Bencic -375 (1,27) Total Games 19.5 Spread +/- 5.5 games
Belinda Bencic played 2 matches at Roland Garros last year. This is the entirety of her clay court matches since 2016. Aiava qualified for Charleston and played 1 match in RG last year, so shes’ played a whole 3 matches on clay at the WTA level in the last 2 years. I don’t know what to do here. Bencic has been one of the best players on tour this year, but I don’t know this translates to clay and I have no real data or past performances to rely on. Pass.
Martina Trevisan -360 (1,28) vs Nadiya Kichenok +280 (3,80) Total Games 19.5 Spread -/+ 5 games
Both women qualified to make this field. That is literally all I know about either of them. This will be Kichenok’s first tournament of the year and Trevisan has really only played qualifier matches up until now. This will be Kichenok’s first clay match since 2016 and Trevisan played a lot of lower level clay matches last season. I guess that’s driving this line? I don’t know. Pass.
Astra Sharma +140 (2,40) vs Taylor Townsend -175 (1,57) Total Games 20.5 Spread +/-3.5 games
Townsend did win 2 ITF/Challenger events on clay last year. In fact, if I just look at that level she was pretty stellar averaging +4.9 games per match on clay below the WTA level. Sharma herself was good too averaging +2.8 games herself in the same kind of tournaments. This line is just about right. Pass.
Francesca Di Lorenzo -135 (1,74) vs Aliona Bolsova +110 (2,10) Total Games 21
Another matchup of women who are used to playing at lower levels. Both had winning records and positive average game numbers on clay at the ITF/Challenger level. This should be a fun match between 2 relatively unknown players, but, there’s no value to be had. Pass.
Olga Danilovic -110 (1,91) vs Kirsten Flipkens -120 (1,83) Total Games 21
Maybe Danilovic will fight with her coach on the sideline again. Otherwise I have no interest in the match at all. Both have look bad this year. Flipken is approaching the end of her career. She’s spent more time coaching than playing this year. Danilovic is young and shows flashes of goodness from time to time, but nothing consistent enough to be encouraged. Pass.
Timea Babos -120 (1,83) vs Ivana Jorovic -110 (1,91) Total Games 21
Looking at last year’s numbers Babos would be a bigger favorite. Looking at this year’s numbers Jorovic should be the favorite. Jorovic’s success has been mostly against talent outside of the top 100. Babos has only won 3 matches this year. I want to bet Jorovic, but I just can’t get myself to do it. Pass.
Ana Bogdan +170 (2,70) vs Stefanie Voegele -210 (1,48) Total games 20.5 Spread +/- 4 games
Bogdan hasn’t won a match since November of last year. She has been awful this season only winning 2 sets all year. Voegele hasn’t been great, but she’s winning matches and had a nice run in Indian Wells. I would love to go against her as such a big favorite, but Bogdan is giving me exactly 0 reasons to do that. Pass.
Nao Hibino -340 (1,29) vs Guiliana Olmos +270 (3,70) Total Games 19.5 Spread -/+ 5games
Edward James’s cousing Guiliana is quite the underdog here. She enters the tournament as a local wild card and was probably lucky to get it. She’s ranked in the 300s and hasn’t done anything this season to lead you to think she’s any better than that number. Hibino isn’t anything to get too excited about, but he she’s used to playing against a higher level of talent. Hibino hasn’t lost to someone outside of the top 300 since July of last year. She is rightfully the favorite. This big of a favorite? Probably not, but again, the underdog isn’t giving us any reason to back her. Pass.
Victoria Rodriguez +535 (6,35) vs Margarita Gasparyan -660 (1,15) Total Games 18 Spread +/- 6.5 games
Gasparyan should win by a lot. Not by 6.5 games a lot, but at least 5 or 6 games. Rodriguez is another local wild card who has trouble beating women ranked 500 to 1000 let alone a rising top 100 player. Pass.
Magdalena Rybarikova -115 (1,87) vs Misaki Doi -115 (1,87) Total Games 21.5
Rybarikova won her first match since August of last year beating a tired Natalia Vikhlyantseva in Miami last week. Doi qualified for Miami, won her first round match and lost a tough match to Polona Hercog. This line is about right. Doi has been better lately, but Rybarikova should be the better player. I’m not sure what happened to her about halfway through last year, but she’s fallen off a cliff. I wish Doi were +$ (>2,0) I would grab her, but at this price I’ll pass.
Charleston - Half unit Stollar +200
Charleston - Full unit Vikhlyantseva -115
Charleston - Half unit Khromacheva +240 (3,40)