Both our big dogs lost, and our young up & comer was outsmarted by a crafty veteran. Khromacheva won the first set 6-1 then crumbled after losing a 2nd set tiebreaker. Stollar never really had a chance. Such is the life of betting big underdogs. Vikhlyantseva was a frustrating loss. Maria is not a great player, but she is a tour veteran. She was able to use her slice to confuse Natalia. Regardless, Vikh served up 5-3 for a chance to take it to a 3rd set, but lost the next 4 games and the match. Elsewhere in Charleston, Zidansek settled in after dropping the first set, Ostapenko looked like there might still be good tennis in there and Belinda Bencic apparently is just fine on clay. There was only 6 first round matchups in Monterrey and nothing really of consequence.
Yesterday 0-3 -2.15 units
Season to date 101-125-13 -12.80 Units Average Odds +105 Average Units/Bet 0.97
All of these lines come from a local book that I use. I will say this often, BE SURE TO CHECK THE PRICES AT ALL THE BOOKS YOU CAN ACCESS. One of the easiest ways to be a better bettor is get the best prices. I’m using lines from my local to try to teach this lesson and make sure what I post is widely available to those who read. I’m sure anything I post in here is offered at a better number somewhere, so be smart and check all your outs before placing your wager. The first number after each player’s name is their US odds with decimal odds in parenthesis. I’ll list total games for every match and spreads for matches with a spread greater than 2.5 games. Anything less than that and just take the moneyline, no need to risk a bagel or breadstick ruining your favorite spread.
As for staking, 1 unit = 1% of my bankroll. Do what you’d like, but I think is the best plan for the long term. Almost all bets will be 1 unit, sometimes less and rarely more. If it’s a favorite then the bet is to win the number of units posted. For example, 1 unit on a -130 (1,77) is a 1.3 unit bet to win 1 unit. If it’s an underdog, then the bet is to risk the units posted. For example, 1 unit on +200 (3,00) is 1 unit to win 2 units. Feel free to DM @_Noops with any questions.
Kateryna Kozlova -140 (1,71) vs Kristyna Pliskova +110 (2,10) the Lesser Total Games 21
I think the wrong woman is favored here. Kozlova is not a good clay court player. She only lost 6 games in her 2 qualifying matches, but those were against #784 and #689 in the world. Pliskova made the quarterfinals here last year and beat Siniakova, Kvitova and Vesnina to get there. Any previous head to head matches were before 2017, but Pliskova is 2-1. I don’t know why Kozlova is favored. I’m putting a full unit on Pliskova.
Danielle Collins -210 (1,48) vs Madison Brengle +170 (2,70) Total Games 20.5 Spread -/+ 4 games
The Australian Open was 3 months ago. Since then Collins has played 6 matches and is 3-3. In other words, it’s been 3 solid months since we’ve seen great tennis from her. Brengle is 2-0 against Collins lifetime, but both were in 2017. She was better than Collins on clay last year, but she’s wasn’t necessarily good herself. I wish I could get a better price on Brengle, but it’s just not enough value. I do like the over though. This line should be 21 or 21.5 and historically matches in Charleston go longer than average clay court matches. Both average above 22 games on clay. Full unit on over 20.5 games.
Veronica Kudermetova +150 (2,50) vs Kaia Kanepi -180 (1,56) Total Games 20.5 Spread +/- 3.5 games
Kanepi had some nice performances on clay last year. She even won a Challenger event. Kudermetova struggled in WTA matches, but 12-6 in qualifiers, Challenger & ITF combined. The moneyline and spread look just about right. There might be some value on Kudermetova based on her recent form, but I’m going to pass. This does look like another great spot for an over. My only concern with the over is that they both play quick 2 set matches. There’s a lot of 6-0/1/2s the last month or so. I see over 2.5 sets priced at +175 (2,75) at Bovada. That’s intriguing, but probably correct. Pass.
Petra Martic +100 (2,00) vs Amanda Anisimova -130 (1,77) Total Games 21
This should be the best match of the day. Both are young, rising talents and the winner will have a chance to win a few matches here. Martic was solid in her clay matches last year. Anisimova skipped clay in 2018 but played 3 tournaments in 2017 and won all 3. I expect to see some great tennis once they get their clay legs settled. Both hit with power and move well. This line looks right so I’m going to pass. If you’re watching and can bet live, whomever gets broken first should have some value and would be a good grab live. Pass on prematch markets.
Laura Siegemund -1230 (1,08) vs Emma Navarro +630 (7,30) Total Games 18.5 Spread -/+ 6 games
Emma Navarro is playing her first match of the year. The best player she ever faced was ranked #287. Laura Siegemund is one of the better clay players on tour. This all looks right
Ysaline Bonaventure -115 (1,87) vs Lauren Davis -115 (1,87) Total Games 20.5
There is nothing nice to say about either woman on clay, so I will choose to say nothing at all. Pass.
Magdalena Frech +115 (2,15) vs Mihaela Buzarnescu -145 (1,69) Total Games 20.5
This looks like a really cheap price on Buzarnescu. Admittedly, she’s only won 1 match since last August. That’s, well, um, not great. She is a much better player on clay. Frech’s only wins this year have come in qualifying or Challenger events so it’s not like she’s in great form. I hate to lay the juice on someone who hasn’t played good tennis in a while, but this is value. I’m going to parlay this with someone to take the edge off I think.
Maria Sakkari -235 (1,43) vs Conny Perrin +185 (2,85) Total Games 20.5 Spread -/+ 3.5 games
Perrin is not quite a WTA level player yet. She didn’t even qualify as she needed a lucky loser spot to make the field here. She has only 3 career wins against the top 100 and has never beaten someone ranked in the top 80. Perrin has only one main draw win this year and it was against a fellow qualifier, Varvara Lepchenko, in Guadalajara which is not a WTA level event. Enter Maria Sakkari. Or will we instead get Sukkari? Sakkari had 2 wins in the Australian Open, 2 in the Fed Cup and an impressive comeback in her first round match in Miami. Sukkari lost to and was bageled by Christina McHale and lost in 3 sets to Magda Linette. The rest of her losses are pretty admirable, Kvitova, Puig, Konta, Goerges & Barty, so maybe she hasn’t been as bad as her 5-6 record this season would indicate. Sakkari should win this match without much trouble. I may have found my parlay partner for Buzarnescu. Pass otherwise.
Varvara Lepchenko +115 (2,15) vs Andrea Petkovic -145 (1,69) Total Games 21 Spread +/- 3 games
Similar to Bonaventure/Davis there is not a thing worth talking about here. Pass.
Sloane Stephens -230 (1,43) vs Sara Sorribes Tormo +180 (2,80) Total Games 20.5 Spread -/+ 4 games
Oh boy, another chance to try to figure out if Sloane Stephens is going to play good tennis. Last we saw Sloane, she was laughably losing in 2 quick sets to Tajana Maria. In Indian Wells she lost and was bageled by Stefanie Voegele. She even lost to Beatriz Hadda Maia in 2 sets in Acapulco. What is going on with her? She should crush all 3 of those women. She was good on clay last year, is in her home country and even won this title in 2016. The price above assumes she’s going to play good tennis and may even offer a little value on Sloane, but I’m passing. I just don’t know how to handicap her anymore, She’s headed for the Muguruza zone.
Martina Trevisan +545 (6,45) vs Kiki Bertens -1150 (1,09) Total Games 18 Spread +/- 6.5
The defending champ is an overwhelming favorite and deservingly so. She is one of the best clay players on the planet. Her numbers are spectacular. Trevisan looked great qualifying and in her first round match as she didn’t even a set in those 3 matches, but she is not ready for this. Pass.
Angelique Kerber -685 (1,15) vs Kristina Kucova +485 (5,85) Total Games 19 Spread -/+ 6 games
Kerber is one of the best players in the world. Kucova is an above average Challenger/ITF player. This is priced properly. Pass.
Shilin Xu +370 (4,70) vs Karolina Muchova -465 (1,21) Total Games 19.5 +/- 5.5 games
Xu qualified to make this tournament and that’s a pretty good for her at the WTA level. She has one non-qualifying win and that wins in an ITF event over #385. She faces Muchova who has been moving herself up the rankings and is probably a top 2 Karolina on tour now. All these numbers look right to me. There might be a little value on Muchova -5.5 games, but I’m not inclined to bet on that. Pass.
Harriet Dart +130 (2,30) vs Dalila Jakupovic -160 (1,63) Total Games 20.5 +/- 3 games
Neither woman has done much, if anything impressive this year. The success you see above from Dart is mostly qualifying matches. Nothing to glean here. Pass.
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova -225 (1,44) vs Anna Blinkova +175 (2,75) Total Games 20.5 Spread -/+ 4 games
The overall numbers look close, but Pavs is facing a much better player on average. Neither has played very well over the past few weeks, but Pavs is the much better player. She should win, but there’s no value in the moneyline or spread. Pass.
Renata Zarazua +210 (3,10) vs Zarina Diyas -260 (1,38) Total Games 20 Spread +/- 4.5 games
Diyas has been pretty bad this year. Her only wins came in qualifying and the 125K event in Indian Wells, not the premier mandatory. Diyas has never played in Monterrey and has only ever played in Mexico 2 other times. The last was a match in Guadalajara in which she retired. Playing in Mexico can be tough, the heat, the elevation and we’ve all heard about the water. You have to be careful not to even brush your teeth with it. Zarazua has none of these issues as a local wildcard. I think she can be competitive and possibly even win this match. I’m putting half a unit on +210 (3,10)
Katie Boulter +400 (5,00) vs Victoria Azarenka -600 (1,17) Total Games 18.5 Spread +/- 6 games
I’m surprised to see Azarenka as such a big favorite here. Her overall level has been much worse this year. You can see above how much better her hold+break and average games per match last season. She’s 5-6 (Miami isn’t in the table above) on the season with no wins to get excited about. She should be the favorite, but this is aggressive. I’m putting a quarter unit on Boulter +400. That’s too much value to pass up.
Sachia Vickery +190 (2,90) vs Alison Riske -240 (1,42) Total Games 20 Spread +/- 4.5 games
The numbers above need a little context. Riske’s performances look pretty this year, but most of that was a run to the final in Shenzhen. She made the round of a 16 in a few tournaments, but not too many impressive wins outside of the first tournament of the year. If look at last year, Vickery was pretty impressive. Just about all of that was a run to the semifinals in Moneterrey actually. Since then she’s been mostly injured and losing matches. This number is just about right. Vickery’s knees have been a big problem and Riske can reach a higher level. I’m going to pass.
Kristina Mladenovic +115 (2,15) vs Beatriz Haddad Maia -145 (1,69) Total Games 21
It’s rare you see a qualifier as a favorite over a top 75 player, but looking at this season’s results I’m not too surprised. Mladenovic hasn’t been a good player on hard courts for years. Haddad Maia is in good form right now. She had a nice to the quarterfinals in Acapulco and didn’t drop a set in qualifying. She probably is deserving of the pricing you see above, but I don’t see much value either way. Pass.
Greta Arn +100 (2,00) vs Lara Arruabarrena -130 (1,77) Total Games 20.5
Yuck. Arn is a veteran on her way down the rankings. Lara is 2-10 and both wins came in qualifying. Like I said, yuck. Pass.
Elena Gabriela Ruse +560 (6,60) vs Garbiñe Muguruza -910 (1,11) Total Games 18.5 Spread +/- 6.5 games
I don’t bet on Muguruza. There’s just no telling what she’s going to do. She won this tournament this year, but who knows if she remembers that or even cares to try to defend her title. So is there any reason to be on the underdog? If you read this last night, you saw that I bet on Watson, but she’s not here anymore. This is Ruse’s first WTA level event this year. She has never beaten a player in the top 75. Nope, I can’t bet on her. Pass.
Charleston - Full unit Pliskova the Lesser +110 (2,10)
Charleston - Full unit Collins/Brengle over 20.5 games
Charleston – Full unit parlay Buzarnescu/Sakkari +140 (2,40)
Monterrey - Half unit Zarazua +210 (3,10)
Monterrey – Quarter unit Boulter +400 (5,00)