WTA Charleston & Monterrey Day 3

Yesterday 1-3-1 -1.2 units

Season to date 102-128-11 -14.00 Units Average Odds +100 Average Units/Bet 0.95

All of these lines come from a local book that I use. I will say this often, BE SURE TO CHECK THE PRICES AT ALL THE BOOKS YOU CAN ACCESS. One of the easiest ways to be a better bettor is get the best prices. I’m using lines from my local to try to teach this lesson and make sure what I post is widely available to those who read. I’m sure anything I post in here is offered at a better number somewhere, so be smart and check all your outs before placing your wager. The first number after each player’s name is their US odds with decimal odds in parenthesis. I’ll list total games for every match and spreads for matches with a spread greater than 2.5 games. Anything less than that and just take the moneyline, no need to risk a bagel or breadstick ruining your favorite spread.

As for staking, 1 unit = 1% of my bankroll. Do what you’d like, but I think is the best plan for the long term. Almost all bets will be 1 unit, sometimes less and rarely more. If it’s a favorite then the bet is to win the number of units posted. For example, 1 unit on a -130 (1,77) is a 1.3 unit bet to win 1 unit. If it’s an underdog, then the bet is to risk the units posted. For example, 1 unit on +200 (3,00) is 1 unit to win 2 units. Feel free to DM @_Noops with any questions.

Charleston

Tamara Zidansek +125 (2,25) vs Ajla Tomljanovic -155 (1,65) Total Games 21 Spread +/- 3 games

The numbers above believe the wrong woman is favored. Zidansek is a clay specialist. If you haven’t already, check your books for French Open futures and make a small wager on her if you can. The clay in Charleston is a little more solid than the red, soft clay we usually think of, but she still has an advantage on this slow surface. Ajla is in very good form. She’s won a lot of matches this season and is playing some nice tennis, but I don’t think her game translate here. Search around at as many outlets as you can to make sure you get the best number, but I’m putting a full unit on Zidansek +125.

Jelena Ostapenko -290 (1,35) vs Shelby Rogers +240 (3,40) Total Games 20.5 Spread -/+ 4.5 games

Home court advantage is an interesting concept in tennis, but I firmly believe it exists. I find it most evident in China at the end of the season. Chinese players receive an overwhelming amount of support from fans. You’ll see empty stadiums all week, but if Qiang Wang is playing it’s a packed house. Shelby Rogers was born in Mt. Pleasant, South Carolina which is just a 15 minute drive from the location of this tournament. She won her first match in 2 years in round 1 and the crowd cheered as if it were a grand slam title. She faces Jelena Ostapenko who was excellent in 2017 when she won the French Open. If you’re not aware of today’s date, that was a long time ago. She shows flashes of brilliance, but not as often lately as needed to win tennis matches. She could win this match 2 & 2 or better or she could lose 2 & 2 or worse. With that kind of variability, I have to put some capital on the big underdog. Half a unit on Rogers +240 (3,40).

Tatjana Maria +175 (2,85) vs Madison Keys -225 (1,44) Total Games 20 Spread +/- 4 games

Madison Keys is a great parlay piece. She’s much better on clay and much better in general than Tatjana. Keys is even 2-0 lifetime. Maria has beaten Sloane Stephens & Camila Giorgi recently, but neither has seemed terribly interested in playing tennis and certainly were not playing their best in those matches. I wish Keys had played more tennis this season. She lost to Mona Barthel and Sam Stosur in her first match in the last 2 tournaments, but Maria is not as good as those two. This is a solid parlay piece, but nothing more. Maybe I’ll find a partner.

Aryna Sabalenka -245 (1,40) vs Kateryna Kozlova +195 (2,95) Total Games 20.5 Spread -/+ 4 games

Not a whole lot to say here. Sabalenka was much better on clay last year and is a better player all around. Kozlova has played some nice tennis in Charleston, 3 wins and hasn’t dropped a set yet. This will be Sabalenka’s first match on this surface. The pricing looks right. I was pondering and over bet, but Sabalenka could win 6-4 6-4 or better. Pass.

Monica Puig -105 (1,95) vs Sofia Kenin -125 (1,80) Total Games 21

I would love to bet on Kenin here. I think she is clearly better of the two, but she just has not had any success on clay. Puig smoke Errani in round 1 and should have her clay legs by now. I guess this price is right? I swear there’s value here, but I just can’t see it. Pass.

Danielle Collins -240 (1,41) vs Aliona Bolsova Zadoinov +190 (2,90) Total Games 20.5 Spread -/+ 4 games

Collins looked great beating Brengle last night. She’s deserving of the pricing you see above and might be a good parlay piece. Pass.

Kaia Kanepi +125 (2,25) vs Elise Mertens -155 (1,65) Total Games 21 Spread +/- 3 games

Elise Mertens should be a bigger favorite. She is one of the best players on tour and has a great chance to win this event. Kanepi is fine on clay, but doesn’t have the elite movement that Mertens does. I’m going to parlay Mertens with someone else for a full unit and put half a unit on -3 games as well.

Julia Goerges -175 (1,57) vs Taylor Townsend +145 (2,45) Total Games 21 Spread -/+ 3.5 games

Townsend actually beat Goerges the first time they played, but that was in 2014. Goerges is the better player and has the better stats on clay. She’s deserving of this price. My only concern is that Goerges has had a pretty poor season so far. She won Auckland, but since then her best performance is 2 wins in Doha. The market has put some money on Townsend, she opened +155 (2,55). Goerges finished 2nd here last year. I’m confused and that’s always a good reason to pass.

Allie Kiick +335 (4,35) vs Belinda Bencic -425 (1,24) Total Games 19.5 Spread +/- 5.5 games

Bencic is almost impossible for me to handicap on clay. Her round 1 match was her 3 clay match since 2016. Kiick has had success on clay, but at much lower levels than this. Bencic should win and is probably deserving of this pricing. Pass.

Petra Martic -330 (1,30) vs Mandy Minella +260 (3,60) Total Games 20.5 Spread -/+ 4.5 games

Mandy Minella was no slouch on clay last year. She made the final in Gstaad and won 2 Challenger titles on clay, but she’s never played here before and struggled to beat Schmiedlova in round 1. Almost all of her success has come in Europe. Martic looked impressive beating Anisimova in 3 sets. She was in control of the match for most of it even though she dropped the 2nd set. Petra, overall, is the better player and has all the tools to make a run here. I’m tempted to put a small bet on Minella at this price, but she really doesn’t play often or well outside of Europe. Pass.

Jessica Pegula +175 (1,85) vs Anastasija Sevastova -225 (1,44) Total Games 20 Spread +/- 4 games

Sevastova is not just one of the better players on tour, she is a great clay player. I’m not sure why she isn’t a bigger favorite here. Pegula is not much of a clay player, but she is young, has lots of power and is in her home country. This is most likely a cheap price on Sevastova, but she hasn’t played good tennis lately. If she’s 75% of the player she can be, I would expect her to win this match without much trouble. It’s probably a good parlay piece, but I’m going to pass.

Caroline Wozniacki -210 (1,47) vs Laura Siegemund +170 (2,70) Total Games 20.5 Spread -/+ 3.5 games

Siegemund is a very good clay player. If this were the standard softer, red clay I would be all over her at this price. Wozniacki is very good on clay too, but not as much better as we see in the pricing above. Wozniacki did beat Siegemund already this year in 2 quick sets on hards. Siegemund played a WC ranked #565 and struggled in round 1. I wish she had played better so I could have some better form. I do like the over though. That number should be at least 21, if not 21.5. Full unit on over 20.5 games.

Lauren Davis +150 (1,50) vs Mihaela Buzarnescu -190 (1,52) Total Games 20.5 Spread +/- 3.5 games

These numbers look right. Buzarnescu did struggle yesterday, but she’s the better player on this surface and is priced properly. Pass.

Maria Sakkari +100 (2,00) vs Andrea Petkovic -130 (1,77) Total Games 21

I think this priced is based too much on recent form and the wrong woman is favored. Yesterday we Sakkari drop a set to a lucky loser while Petkovic put a hurting on Lepchenko. But let’s look at some more meaningful things. Sakkari’s numbers were much better last year. Petkovic did beat Sakkari in Madrid in 2017 on clay, but its just one match and was a few years ago. Yesterday was Petkovic’s second main draw win this year, the first was over Ana Bogdan who hasn’t won in months. Sakkari doesn’t have a ton of wins to her name, but she’s faced much tougher competition this year. I like this price on her a lot. Full unit on Sakkari +100 (2,00).

Monterrey

Dalila Jakupovic +135 (2,35) vs Kirsten Flipkens -165 (1,60) Total Games 21 Spread +/-3 games

The wrong woman is favored here. Jakupovic hasn’t had the best 2019, but she’s starting to find some form. She was good in Miami qualifying and held her own in a first round loss to Venus. She crushed Harriet Dart in round 1. Flipkens is an older player on her way out of the WTA. She’s actually already started coaching some players. Flipkens did make the final here, but that was in 2016. I think we’re getting a name recognition discount here. Full unit on Jakupovic +135 (2,35).

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova -395 (1,25) vs Ivana Jorovic +245 (3,45) Total Games 20.5 Spread -/+ 4.5 games

Jorovic is a nice young player who is on a roll. She’s won 6 matches in a row and 16-4 in her last 20 matches. Her numbers above look great, but you’ll notice she’s beating up on players with an average rank of #125, not top 50 talent. Pavlyuchenkova is the much better player and she loves this venue. She’s won the title 4 times here in 2010, 2011, 2013 & 2017. She should be the big favorite and is. Pass.

Magdalena Rybarikova +100 (2,00) vs Stefanie Voegele -130 (1,77) Total Games 21

Rybarikova won! For the second time since August no less and it was an ugly win at that. Voegele beat up in Ana Bogdan who continues to lose matches. I don’t have anything nice to say about either lady, so I’m going to pass. Maybe Rybar serves great and beat Voegele easily. Maybe Voegele soaks up the mistakes of her error prone opponent. I have no clue. Pass.

Nao Hibino +100 (2,10) vs Sachia Vickery -130 (1,77) Total Games 21

Vickery ruined my Riske outright in a bizarre match yesterday. Riske looked like she was in control and could win at any moment and Vickery just kept winning points. Maybe Sachia is a jedi. Powers of the force aside, I can’t see why she’s favored here. I guess she has home court advantage? I think Hibino can win this match and I’m happy to take the underdog. If Vickery is healthy this is a coinflip, but her knees can fail her at any time. Full unit on Hibino.

Recap

Charleston - Full unit Zidansek +125 (2,25)

Charleston - Half unit Rogers +240 (3,40)

Charleston - Half unit Mertens -3 games

Charleston - Full unit parlay Keys/Mertens +140 (2,40)

Charleston - Full unit Wozniacki/Siegemund over 20.5 games

Charleston – Full unit Sakkari +100 (2,00)

Monterrey - Full unit Jakupovic +135 (2,35)

Monterrey - Full unit Hibino +100 (2,10)