Yesterday 0-5 -4.85 units
Season to date 103-140-11 -24.05 Units Average Odds -103 Average Units/Bet 0.97
All of these lines come from a local book that I use. I will say this often, BE SURE TO CHECK THE PRICES AT ALL THE BOOKS YOU CAN ACCESS. One of the easiest ways to be a better bettor is get the best prices. I’m using lines from my local to try to teach this lesson and make sure what I post is widely available to those who read. I’m sure anything I post in here is offered at a better number somewhere, so be smart and check all your outs before placing your wager. The first number after each player’s name is their US odds with decimal odds in parenthesis. I’ll list total games for every match and spreads for matches with a spread greater than 2.5 games. Anything less than that and just take the moneyline, no need to risk a bagel or breadstick ruining your favorite spread.
As for staking, 1 unit = 1% of my bankroll. Do what you’d like, but I think is the best plan for the long term. Almost all bets will be 1 unit, sometimes less and rarely more. If it’s a favorite then the bet is to win the number of units posted. For example, 1 unit on a -130 (1,77) is a 1.3 unit bet to win 1 unit. If it’s an underdog, then the bet is to risk the units posted. For example, 1 unit on +200 (3,00) is 1 unit to win 2 units. Feel free to DM @_Noops with any questions.
Sloane Stephens (1,95) vs Madison Keys (1,80) Total Games 21
The battle for least disappointing player from the United States is here, hooray? The numbers are above are almost identical, but Sloane is 3-0 lifetime and beat Keys last year in Rolland Garros so we know Madislam Keys was trying. We’re now in the quarterfinal of a premier tournament so effort shouldn’t be a problem, right? Worst case, they’re both mercurial and equally likely to give up mid match. Best case, the two take a match against their fellow, top level countrywoman seriously and we see some great tennis. I’m surprised to Keys as the favorite. I see some value in Sloane. She has the ability to handle Keys power and should be able to move Keys around the court creating chances for winners. I’m putting a full unit on Sloane Stephens.
Monica Puig -115 (1,87) vs Danielle Collins -115 (1,87) Total Games 21
I saw things from Puig yesterday that I hadn’t seen from her before. She beat Sabalenka comfortably. I’m not sure if that says more about Puig or Sabalenka. The Amazonian Warrior won the title in her opening tournament in Shezhen, but has had some positively puzzling performances postliminary. Puig has a new coach, Kamau Murray, who is best known for guiding Sloane Stephens to a US Open title in 2017. He is one of the most respected coaches in the game and someone who makes a clear difference. Coaching is largely underrated in the WTA. Murray cannot only help Puig with the technical aspects of her, but his ability to calm & refocus players mid match makes a huge difference. Puig took the first set when the two played in Miami, but lost to Collins. Both have had nice starts to this tournament and this should be a great match. I have no idea who wins. Pass.
Belinda Bencic -210 (1,47) vs Petra Martic +170 (2,80) Total Games 21 -/+ 3.5 games
Bencic has been absolutely dominant so far this week and continues to be one of the very best players on tour this season. Martic almost lost to Pegula yesterday. She’s a nice player, but Bencic should win this match without much trouble. Possibly a good parlay piece, but otherwise I’ll pass.
Caroline Wozniacki -180 (1,55) vs Maria Sakkari +150 (2,50) Total Games 20.5 Spread -/+ 3.5 games
This will be Wozniacki’s 3rd match this week and I’m beginning to wonder if she’ll be feeling the effects of her RA. Sakkari just beat one of the best clay players on tour. Looking above, Wozniacki does have the pedigree in this match, but I think given Sakkari’s level this week she is a very live dog. I wish the price on Maria were a little better though. The moneyline and spread just aren’t appealing enough for me to place a wager. Pass.
Angelique Kerber -490 (1,20) vs Kirsten Flipkens +390 (4,90) Total Games 19.5 Spread -/+ 5.5 games
Not a whole lot to worry about here. Kerber is one of the best players on tour and the clear favorite to win this event. Per the market, Flipkens has a 20% chance of winning this match and frankly, that feels a bit high. Pricing looks mostly right though, pass.
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova -115 (1,87) vs Victoria Azarenka -115 (1,87) Total Games 21.5
This will decide who gets to face Kerber in the semifinals. It will be first time the 2 have played each other since 2015. The numbers above like Azarenka, but Pavlyuchenkova loves it in Monterrey. She’s won the event 4 times in her career. I was hoping that Pavs would be at +$ (>2,00), but that’s not the case. Pass.
Magdalena Rybarikova -120 (1,83) vs Sachia Vickery -110 (1,91) Total Games 21.5
Vickery just looks rough and winning matches. Rybarikova lost the first set in both of her matches before coming back to win. I don’t have much to say here. Maybe live bet whoever gets broken first. Pass.
Kristina Mladenovic +200 (3,00) vs Garbiñe Muguruza -250 (1,40) Total Games 21 Spread +/- 4 games
I’m going to try not to bet Muguruza matches for a while. She seems motivated and is probably a good parlay piece, but I can never be sure she’s going to be focused. Pass.
Sloane Stephens -105 (1,95)