Yesterday 0-0 -0.00 units
Season to date 103-141-11 -25.10 Units Average Odds -103 Average Units/Bet 0.97
All of these lines come from a local book that I use. I will say this often, BE SURE TO CHECK THE PRICES AT ALL THE BOOKS YOU CAN ACCESS. One of the easiest ways to be a better bettor is get the best prices. I’m using lines from my local to try to teach this lesson and make sure what I post is widely available to those who read. I’m sure anything I post in here is offered at a better number somewhere, so be smart and check all your outs before placing your wager. The first number after each player’s name is their US odds with decimal odds in parenthesis. I’ll list total games for every match and spreads for matches with a spread greater than 2.5 games. Anything less than that and just take the moneyline, no need to risk a bagel or breadstick ruining your favorite spread.
As for staking, 1 unit = 1% of my bankroll. Do what you’d like, but I think is the best plan for the long term. Almost all bets will be 1 unit, sometimes less and rarely more. If it’s a favorite then the bet is to win the number of units posted. For example, 1 unit on a -130 (1,77) is a 1.3 unit bet to win 1 unit. If it’s an underdog, then the bet is to risk the units posted. For example, 1 unit on +200 (3,00) is 1 unit to win 2 units. Feel free to DM @_Noops with any questions.
Madison Keys -115 (1,87) vs Caroline Wozniacki (1,87) Total Games 21.5
2 of the very players the world has to offer meet for the title in Charleston. This will be Keys first final since the US Open in 2017. That’s very surprising for a such a talented and well respected. Here struggles out of grand slams has been documented, but I would still have thought she got to at least 1 final last year. She did make the semifinals last year and has spent most of the week talking about much she likes it in Charleston. Comments like that are often just lip service, but Keys has been successful here. She is 15-6 lifetime with an average games of +2.5, almost a full game higher than her average on clay. It sure seems like’s comfortable on these courts.
This is Wozniacki’s longest run this season. She’s won 4 matches here and hasn’t more than 2 at any other tournament. I’ve mentioned her RA a few times this week, but it seems that either she’s not had a flare up or found a way to management. I’m going to assume she’s healthy, but as a general rule of thumb, when placing bets on Wozniacki make sure you use a book that cancels your bet if she retires. Wozniacki has had success here as well. She won the event in 2009 and 2011 and made at least the quarterfinals every other year. Looking above, here numbers on clay were better than Keys and against a slightly better competition.
This should be a fantastic final. I think Wozniacki is the better player and should be the favorite. She moves much better than Keys and should have enough power of her own to hit winners. Like I said earlier, I’m not worried about Wozniacki’s health and we’re getting a great price on one of the 5 to 10 bet women in the world. Full unit on Wozniacki. The other bet I like is over 2.5 sets. It’s lined +160 (2,60) at Bovada and I would make the line +130 (2,30). That’s a 5% mathematical edge and I think given the mental fortitude of both players we’re even more likely to see it go 3 sets. Half a unit on over 2.5 sets.
Victoria Azarenka -165 (1,60) vs Garbiñe Muguruza +135 (2,35) Total Games 21.5
It’s been tough sledding for Azarenka until this point of her season. She was 5-6 before getting to Monterrey, but she lost to Venus, Laura Siegemund, Petra Kvitova, Sofia Kenin, Serena & Caroline Garcia. Besides losing to Siegemund on hards, those are all admirable losses. She hasn’t found the same level she had in 2018 yet. Here hold+break is down, but still 108%, and her averages games are down, but still +1.6. This is her first time playing the event and she’s played her best tennis this season the last 2 matches. She bageled Pavlyuchenkova and breadsticked Kerber in the 3rd set.
Garbiñe Muguruza seems to be motivated this week which is just better for tennis in general. One of the most frustrating parts of watching sports are top levels athletes that don’t seem to be trying their very best. She played her best match yesterday, dispatching Rybarikova 2 & 3. Similar to Azarenka, her numbers are down from last year, but still solid. She has a better record, but against slightly worse competition.
I like Azarenka here and I think that price is just about right. She’s in better form this week and is overall a better player in my opinion. Muguruza does have the ability to raise her level and could win this match, but Azarenka should take care of business. I’m tempted by an under here. Azarenka wins fast and Muguruza loses fast, but neither is a stranger to a tiebreak. Pass all around.
Full unit Wozniacki -115 (1,87)
Half unit Wozniacki/Keys over 2.5 sets +160