Yesterday 0-1 -1.05 units
Season to date 103-141-11 -25.10 Units Average Odds -103 Average Units/Bet 0.97
All of these lines come from a local book that I use. I will say this often, BE SURE TO CHECK THE PRICES AT ALL THE BOOKS YOU CAN ACCESS. One of the easiest ways to be a better bettor is get the best prices. I’m using lines from my local to try to teach this lesson and make sure what I post is widely available to those who read. I’m sure anything I post in here is offered at a better number somewhere, so be smart and check all your outs before placing your wager. The first number after each player’s name is their US odds with decimal odds in parenthesis. I’ll list total games for every match and spreads for matches with a spread greater than 2.5 games. Anything less than that and just take the moneyline, no need to risk a bagel or breadstick ruining your favorite spread.
As for staking, 1 unit = 1% of my bankroll. Do what you’d like, but I think is the best plan for the long term. Almost all bets will be 1 unit, sometimes less and rarely more. If it’s a favorite then the bet is to win the number of units posted. For example, 1 unit on a -130 (1,77) is a 1.3 unit bet to win 1 unit. If it’s an underdog, then the bet is to risk the units posted. For example, 1 unit on +200 (3,00) is 1 unit to win 2 units. Feel free to DM @_Noops with any questions.
Madison Keys -140 (1,71) vs Monica Puig +110 (2,10) Total Games 21
Puig has been red hot. She played 4 matches and won all 4 in 2 sets without much struggle. It’s clear that Kamau Murray has made a big impact. Madison Keys has played some very tough matches. She survived 4 set points in the first against Sloane Stephens. She gave up a big lead in the second set against Tatjana Maria. The market really respects Puig here. Looking at Pinnacle, Keys opened -147 (1,68) and got all the way down to -125 (1,80) so the market likes Puig. There was some buy back on Keys at the low point, but overall Puig has taken the most money. I can’t find an angle here. I’m inclined to think Keys will win this match, but Puig has been a surprise all week. Enjoy what should be a great match. Pass.
Petra Martic +160 (2,60) vs Caroline Wozniacki -200 (1,50) Total Games 20.5 Spread +/- 3.5 games
These 2 have played 5 times and Martic has yet to win a set. This is as far as Wozniacki has made into a tournament this year both in terms of wins (3) and round (SF). She was diagnosed with Rheumatoid Arthritis at the end of last season. The disease causes inflammation in the joints and tends to get worse with increased activity and exacerbates any normal fatigue. She looked great yesterday dispatching Sakkari 2 & 2. Martic almost lost to Jessica Pegula and then routined Bencic 3 & 4. Wozniacki is the deserving favorite, but I’m going to pass. -3.5 games is probably half a game too short and -200 would normally be a good parlay piece, but there’s too much unknown about Wozniacki’s physical condition. Pass.
Angelique Kerber -115 (1,87) vs Victoria Azarenka -115 (1,87) Total Games 21
Azarenka is 7-2 lifetime against Kerber, but the 2 haven’t played since 2016. Both are in tremendous form and neither has lost a set at this tournament. This should be a great match and whoever brings their best will win. There’s probably some value on Kerber, because the market likes to react to head to head records. If I could get Kerber +$ (>2,00) then I would grab her, but that’s not the case. Pass.
Magdalena Rybarikova +330 (4,30) vs Garbiñe Muguruza -420 (1,23) Total Games 20 Spread +/- 5 games
I don’t bet on Muguruza. She does seem to be motivated to make the final, but the pricing above is prohibitive even if we knew she’d play her best. She can be much better than Rybarikova and could easily cover the 5 games. Pass.