What a nice easy win that was to start the day! Belinda Bencic did her thing in the first set and Karolina Pliskova was kind enough to break twice early in the second set and hold on to take it to 3 sets. Bencic took the 3rd with a late break and continues her torrid run through the WTA’s top 10. Overall it was a pretty good match. Both women hit a lot of very good shots and it was fun to watch. The night match was almost the exact opposite. Angelique Kereber “bested” Venus Williams in a 2 set slog that few of us will remember years from now. Regardless, we have our Kerber outright ticket at 16-1 all the way to the semifinals. I’ll discuss a possible hedge in tomorrow’s preview.
Yesterday 1-0 +1.5 units
Indian Wells in Total 17-23-1 -4.82 units
Season to date 87-97-10 -0.93 Units Average Odds +110 Average Units/Bet 0.93
All of these lines come from a local book that I use. I will say this often, BE SURE TO CHECK THE PRICES AT ALL THE BOOKS YOU CAN ACCESS. One of the easiest ways to be a better bettor is get the best prices. I’m using lines from my local to try to teach this lesson and make sure what I post is widely available to those who read. I’m sure anything I post in here is offered at a better number somewhere, so be smart and check all your outs before placing your wager. The first number after each player’s name is their US odds with decimal odds in parenthesis. I’ll list total games for every match and spreads for matches with a spread greater than 2.5 games. Anything less than that and just take the moneyline, no need to risk a bagel or breadstick ruining your favorite spread.
As for staking, 1 unit = 1% of my bankroll. Do what you’d like, but I think is the best plan for the long term. Almost all bets will be 1 unit, sometimes less and rarely more. If it’s a favorite then the bet is to win the number of units posted. For example, 1 unit on a -130 (1,77) is a 1.3 unit bet to win 1 unit. If it’s an underdog, then the bet is to risk the units posted. For example, 1 unit on +200 (3,00) is 1 unit to win 2 units. Feel free to DM @_Noops with any questions.
Bianca Andreescu -115 (1,87) vs Elina Svitolina -115 (1,87) Total Games Over 21.5 Games
Bianca Andreescu continues to mow down her opposition. She’s lost 1 set in 5 matches. She’s won 70.8% of the games she’s played in those matches. This has been an impressive and eye-opening run by Bianca. She seems to have the capability to be a top 10 player in the WTA. Elina Svitolina is already a top 10 player. She’s been a top 10 player for quite some time. There is a gigantic difference in pedigree here, but our pricing is essentially even (equal juice both sides). This line speaks volumes about the player Andreescu already is, let alone can be.
This is the furthest Svitolina has ever gone in Indian Wells which is surprising given her aptitude on slower surfaces. She has tremendous movement and the ability to get to almost every ball. Stepping back for a second, I’m left with one immediate, gut reaction, “HOLY SHIT I GET TO BET SVITOLINA -115 (1,87)?!?!? THAT’S SO CHEAP!?!?!” I think my gut is right. Svitolina is one of the very best players in the world. Andreescu will someday likely be one of the very best. Svitolina will be the best player Andreescu has ever faced. Maybe this is the match or tournament that escalates her into the top tier, but I have to take Svitolina at this price. Full unit on Svitolina.
Full unit Svitolina -115 (1,87)