Just like Buzz McCallister’s girlfriend my picks from day 1 can be described in one word, “WOOF!” Petra Martic really let us down. She comes back from 3 match points to force a tiebreaker and then loses anyway. Sorry I got sucked into betting Vickery, that’s on me. A good friend of mine tried to stop me and I did not head his warning. Thanks to Johanna Konta for helping us avoid the reverse sweep. Not the start we were hoping for, but it’s a long road so onto day 2.
Yesterday 1-4 -3.1 units
This tournament 1-4 -3.1 units
Since I started doing these write-ups 1-4 -3.1 units
All of these lines come from a local book that I use. I will say this often, BE SURE TO CHECK THE PRICES AT ALL THE BOOKS YOU CAN ACCESS. One of the easiest ways to be a better bettor is get the best prices. I’m sure anything I post in here is offered at a better number somewhere, so be smart and check all your outs before placing your wager. The first number after each player’s name is their US odds with decimal odds in parenthesis. I’ll list total games for every match and spreads for matches with a spread greater than 2.5 games. Anything less than that and just take the moneyline, no need to risk a bagel or breadstick ruining your favorite spread.
As for staking, 1 unit = 1% of my bankroll. Do what you’d like, but I think is the best plan for the long term. Almost all bets will be 1 unit, sometimes less and rarely more. If it’s a favorite then the bet is to win the number of units posted. For example, 1 unit on a -130 (1,77) is a 1.3 unit bet to win 1 unit. If it’s an underdog, then the bet is to risk the units posted. For example, 1 unit on +200 (3,00) is 1 unit to win 2 units. Feel free to DM @_Noops with any questions.
With the schedule change last night, I posted a few Day 2 matches yesterday. I’m going to leave them in and mark them as such.
POSTED YESTERDAY Kristina Mladenovic -110 (1,91) vs Saisai Zheng -120 (1,83) Total Games 21
I’m surprised to see this match lined so closely. Mladenovic did beat Naomi Osaka earlier this year, but it’s hard to get excited about that win when you consider the situation. This was Osaka’s first match without Sascha Bajin at her side and her first match after a long layoff after the Australian Open. Take a look at the table above and you’ll see a better picture of who Mladenovic is. 14-19 on hard courts averaging -1.28 games is pretty rough. Saisai Zheng doesn’t play the best competiton, facing an average rank of 139, but she does beat them soundly with a 19-7 record averaging +2.96 games. No head to head history here. I’m going to happily line up and get a ticket for Zheng here. I think she is the better player and is in better form. Full unit on Zheng.
POSTED YESTERDAY Kirsten Flipkens +175 (2,75) vs Genie Bouchard -215 (1,46) Total Games 20.5 Spread +/- 4 games
This match looks properly priced to me. Bouchard is the better player and is in better form. Genie -4 games is ok, but I’ll pass. Genie -215 is likely to make its way into a parlay though.
POSTED YESTERDAY Alison Riske -150 (1,67) vs Alison Van Uytvanck +120 (2,20) Total Games 21 Spread -/+ 2.5 games
This is a funny line, but ultimately I think it’s correct. If you look at the table above AVU looks to be better on hard courts, but let’s parse that a little bit. AVU likes to play indoor hard courts that tend to be much faster and play to her strength as a big server. The courts at Indian Wells are outdoors and notoriously slow which will neutralize he big serve to some extent. I’m still surprised Riske is such a big favorite, but I can’t find any value here. I’m looking very hard at over 21 games. Matches tend to go longer at Indian Wells and both women average over 22 games per match on hards. Actually, I’m in, full unit on over 21 games.
POSTED YESTERDAY Rebecca Peterson +140 (2,40) vs Ekaterina Alexandrova -170 (1.59) Total Games 20.5 Spread +/- 3 games
Pass all around here. The line looks right. Alexandrova is the better player overall, but she’s possibly carrying a knee injury and these slows courts do not fit her style. Pass.
POSTED YESTERDAY Madison Brengle +100 (2,00) vs Samantha Stosur -130 (1,76) Total Games 21
Another easy match to pass on entirely. Don’t even watch this. Sam Stosur is 3-0 head to head, but I’m serious, just leave this alone. All 3 matches were years ago and both were much different players. PASS.
POSTED YESTERDAY Monica Puig -265 (1,37) vs Evgeniya Rodina +215 (3,15) Total Games 20 Spread -/+ 4.5 games
It’s hard to think the Monica Puig we’ve seen this year should such a big favorite over any professional tennis player with functioning limbs, but I have absolutely no interest in Rodina either. Puig had a good Fed cup, but hasn’t advanced past the 2nd round in any tournament this year. Rodina is 2-6 so far this season. Puig is the better player in general, so she should be the favorite, but I’d be grabbing the underdog here if it were not Rodina. Pass.
POSTED YESTERDAY Johanna Larsson +270 (3,70) vs Kaia Kanepi -350 (1,28) Total Games 19 Spread +/- 5 games
Kanepi is better and she’ll win, but I never parlay -350 (1,28) and 5 games seems just about right for the spread. No value to be had, pass.
POSTED YESTERDAY Alja Tomljanovic -110 (1,91) vs Alize Cornet -120 (1,83) Total Games 21
This has me flabbergasted. Take a look at the table above and you can see Alja was much better on hard courts last year. Only 1 match in the head to head, but it was played in 2013. Alja has a had nice start to the year and Cornet hasn’t done anything impressive. The slower courts should suit Cornet, but I don’t think that outweighs all the other factors. Full unit on Alja.
Ysaline Bonaventure -110 (1,91) vs Taylor Townsend -120 (1,83) Total Games 21
Man do the numbers like Bonaventure here. She was a much better player last year on hard courts and has had a fine start to this year for a player that has to qualify for every tournament she enters. Townsend is in her home country and is accustomed to the settings having played the challenger event in Indian Wells last week. Those 2 factoris combined with a 6-1 7-5 win over Bonaventure the one time they played 2 years ago in a small event in South Carolina are giving us a chance at a cheap bet on Ysaline. I’ll put a full unit on Bonaventure.
Misaki Doi +163 (2,63) vs Ons Jabeur -203 (1,49) Total Games 20.5 Spread +/- 3.5 games
This looks about right to me. I don’t have many nice things to say about Misaki Doi, so to make my mother proud I won’t say much at all. I do hope that Jabeur comes out and takes care of business. She was so much fun to watch in Beijing, Hong Kong and Moscow at the end of last season. Last we saw her she retired in Dubai against Elina Svitolina with a shoulder injury. Hopefully she’s feeling better and she gets back on track, but I see no value here. Pass.
POSTED YESTERDAY Venus Williams -190 (1,52) vs Andrea Petkovic +150 (2,50) Total Games 20.5 Spread -/+ 3.5 games
Venus should win this comfortably. She’s played well here the last 2 years making the QF in 2017 and the SF in 2018. Petkovic is too inconsistent and any head to head is too old to consider. I wish Venus were -3, but alas, let’s put her moneyline in a parlay.
Christina McHale +105 (2,05) vs Maria Sakkari -135 (1,74) Total Games over 21
Poor Maria Sakkari. To only be this cheap of favorite over McHale must make her sick if she were aware of such thing. If I were her coach, I might mention it. She has a much better pedigree and should beat McHale without much trouble. As I mentioned yesterday, I don’t believe in trap lines. This is value plain and simple. I’m betting Sakkari -135 to win a full unit.
Jessica Pegula +163 (2,63) vs Zarina Diyas -203 (1,49) Total Games 20.5 Spread +/- 4 games
I was surprised to see Zarina Diyas had to qualify here. She was a top 50 player last year, but seems to be on her way out of the top 100. Pegula is a young player headed the other direction I think. This will be her biggest event of the year to date and I’m excited to see how she does. When I started this paragraph, the plan was to bet Pegula on the spread with maybe a sprinkle on the moneyline, but I’m going to pass. Diyas was solid last week and I think the slow nature of these courts is going to neutralize Peugla’s power. Pass. I mean it. Pass.
Natalia Vikhlyantseva -195 (1,51) vs Priscilla Hon +155 (2,55) Total Games 20.5 Spread -/+ 3.5 games
2 players for which I don’t have many matches in my database. My eyes tell me that this price is correct and that Vikhlyantseva is worthy of being such a large favorite. A few people smarter than I agree and even have Natalia in a parlay. I will pass.
POSTED YESTERDAY Yulia Putintseva -140 (1,71) vs Timea Babos +110 (2,10) Total Games 20.5
There is likely some value on Babos as she’s generally has better performances on hard courts, but I’m going to pass. It’s not a lot of value and Babos hasn’t been good this season. Pass.
Lin Zhu -225 (1,44) vs Mona Barthel +175 (2,75) Total Games 20.5 spread -/+ 3.5 games
This looks properly priced. I find myself trying to see a pathway to betting on Barthel. The slower courts should help. She’s in her home country. These are perfect examples of being dumb and trying to force a bet. Pass.
POSTED YESTERDAY Full unit Saisai Zheng -120 (1,83)
POSTED YESTERDAY Full unit Riske/Van Uytvanck over 21 games
POSTED YESTERDAY Full unit Tomljanovic -110 (1,91)
POSTED YESTERDAY Full unit parlay Venus/Bouchard +125 (2,25)
Full unit Bonaventure -110 (1,91)
Full unit Sakkari -135 (1,74)