To start, a mea culpa, in my attempt to get yesterday’s piece out ASAP I flubbed some quick math on the recap. Thanks to Mike Hawk for pointing that out! I really do appreciate when people reach out (@_Noops) either with a comment, criticism or correction. Day 3 was actually 4-2 -.65 units, not -0 units. Apologies again for the error.
4-2 again yesterday, but this time we made some profit, +2.18 units. Ysaline Bonaventure continues to be great for us as she fought back to win after getting breadsticked in the first. Admittedly a dissapoiting performance from Donna Vekci. It appears she is ready for -3.5/-4 games on the spread respect, but maybe not the respect of -4.5/-5 games. Christina McHale continues to shock and surprise me with her play. Admittedly, Pavlyuchenkova may be dealing with a shoulder injury (thanks @ace_previews). Speaking of injuries, I guess Venus Williams is fine? She gutted out a win over Petra Kvitova 4-6 7-5 6-4. Overall, a fun day with some great 3 sets matches, some impressive blowouts and everyone’s favorite, profit! Let’s jump into Day 5 that begins the round of 32.
Yesterday 4-2 +2.18 units
This tournament 12-11 -2.07 units
Since I started doing these write-ups 12-11 -2.07 units
All of these lines come from a local book that I use. I will say this often, BE SURE TO CHECK THE PRICES AT ALL THE BOOKS YOU CAN ACCESS. One of the easiest ways to be a better bettor is get the best prices. I’m using my local to try to teach this lesson and make sure what I post is widely available to those who read. I’m sure anything I post in here is offered at a better number somewhere, so be smart and check all your outs before placing your wager. The first number after each player’s name is their US odds with decimal odds in parenthesis. I’ll list total games for every match and spreads for matches with a spread greater than 2.5 games. Anything less than that and just take the moneyline, no need to risk a bagel or breadstick ruining your favorite spread.
As for staking, 1 unit = 1% of my bankroll. Do what you’d like, but I think is the best plan for the long term. Almost all bets will be 1 unit, sometimes less and rarely more. If it’s a favorite then the bet is to win the number of units posted. For example, 1 unit on a -130 (1,77) is a 1.3 unit bet to win 1 unit. If it’s an underdog, then the bet is to risk the units posted. For example, 1 unit on +200 (3,00) is 1 unit to win 2 units. Feel free to DM @_Noops with any questions.
Kiki Bertens -145 (1,69) vs Johanna Konta +115 (2,15) Total Games 21.5
Oooooo weeeee, this one ought to be a real humdinger. Of course, let’s get our Kiki Bertens disclaimer ready. I am terrible at betting Kiki Bertens matches. Whatever I am about to type is almost certainly going to be wrong. In this match between 2 very talented women I’m not sure what to do. Konta has looked great this week, only losing 7 games total in her first 2 matches. Kiki Bertens looked good beating up Magda Linette after her first round bye. Last time they played was in 2017 in Cincinnati and Konta won 3 & 3. I really have no clue. Even the total looks right at a massive (for the WTA) 21.5 games. Pass.
Garbiñe Muguruza +205 (3,05) vs Serena Williams -255 (1,39) Total Games 21 Spread +/- 4 games
I hope this is fun. It should be fun. Muguruza takes on America’s most talked about mom in what could be a really great match. These 2 have played 5 times and Muguruza actually won twice, albeit on clay, but 2 wins is still impressive. It shows me that Muguruza should not enter today’s match with a lot of fear, but it’s Garbiñe Muguruza. No one, probably not even her, has any idea what she’s going to bring to the table. A bet on Serena isn’t the worst idea, but -4 games and -255 looks about right. Maybe a play on the under? I’m going to pass.
Elise Mertens -135 (1,74) vs Qiang Wang +105 (2,05) Total Games 21
This match should take a while as I expect to see a lot of great rallies. Both women play a more cerebral style of tennis instead of relying on big, powerful winners. These 2 have played twice, both on hard courts and both with the exact same score, Wang 4-6 6-3 6-3. I love betting on Wang, but I’m not sure this is the spot. I’d also love to take the over, but if either wins 4 & 4 we lose and 5 & 3 only gets us a push. Pass.
Bianca Andreescu -280 (1,35) vs Stefanie Voegele +230 (3,30) Total Games 20.5 Spread -/+ 4 games
Raise your hand if you had Stefanie Voegele making the round of 32? *Looks around, sees everyone looking down glumly* Way to go Stefanie! She qualified for this tournament, beat Sascha Vickery in round 1 and Sloane Stephens in round 2. She faces another North American in Bianca Andreescu. Andreescu is already good and headed towards greatness with a real shot to be the best female Canadian tennis player alive. After being tested in round one with a set 1 loss in a tiebreak she calmed down and win the next 2 sets 3 & 3. In the second round she whipped someone who appeared to be Dominika Cilbulkova, but I’m still not convinced. Andreescu should have no issues ending Voegele’s magical run today. Full unit on Andreescu -4 games.
Jennifer Brady +155 (2,55) vs Ashleigh Barty -195 (1,51) Total Games 20.5 Spread -/+ 4 games
This match is all about recent play. Barty was fine beating Tatjana Maria 4 & 4. Brady has been great these last 2 weeks making the final in the Indian Wells challenger event last week and beating Caroline Garcia for the THIRD TIME THIS YEAR. Barty should win this match. She should be better than Brady, but this is a new Brady I’ve not yet seen. Given all that, I have no idea what do with this moneyline or spread. The total looks half a game too low, but I’m going to pass.
Marketa Vondrousova -150 (1,67) vs Jelena Ostapenko +120 (2,20) Total Games 21
Ostapenko is back! Ok, well maybe beating Shuai Zhang 2 & 1 isn’t incredible, but it was fun to see her playing good tennis. Vondrousova is a much different animal and will provide a tougher test. I think Vondrousova wins which is I will not be hedging my 80-1 outright ticket, but I’m not sure what Ostapenko we’re getting. Penko could win 2 & 1 again, lose 2 & 1 again or do something like 6-1 1-6 6-1 causing anyone with an over or under ticket to go insane. Just watch and, hopefully, enjoy. Pass.
Kateryna Kozlova +515 (6,15) vs Simona Halep -765 (1,13) Total Games 18.5 Spread +/- 6 games
It’s going to be hard to say Halep is not worth such an expensive price. Similar to Voegele, Kozlova being here is shocking. She beat Katerina Siniakova in round 1 and cost us some units defeating Aliaksandra Sasnovich in round 2, but this is the end. This feels like Halep 4 & 2 which matches the pricing so let’s pass.
Elina Svitolina -425 (1,24) vs Daria Gavrilova +315 (4,15) Total Games 20 Spread -/+ 5 games
Before we get to the preview, a disclaimer, this line is actually from Bovada. My local book is so shit they don’t even have all the matches posted. Remember folks, get access to as many books as you can. If you’re not already make sure you’re getting into bitcoin so you can even access offshore books safely and without fear of the wire transfer laws that normally restrict us. Check out this great piece by gambling twitter’s George Whaleshington himself @Whale_Capper. So sorry this pricing may not be as easily available as previous matches and sorry it’s most likely out of order. As for the actual match, if you plan on watching make sure you have a comfy chair because this could take a while. Neither of these women shy away from a rally and I think we’ll a lot of long, cerebral points. I was all ready to bet on over 20 games, especially in Indian Wells, but when I look at the head to head there’s usually few games when these 2 play. They have played 7 times, Svitolina winning 5, and only average 20.5 games in those matches. Even in 2017 on these courts Svitolina won 2 & 1. Pass.
Full unit Andreescu -4 games