1 pick, 1 winner! It’s fun when it’s that easy too. Bianca Andreescu steam rolled Stefanie Voegele. I continue to be excited about the young Candian’s potential. Our Vondrousova future survives another round. Qiang Wang against Elise Mertens did not disappoint. It was a heartbreaking loss for anyone who had Mertens and an incredible win for anyone who had Wang. Mertens had several chances to put away sets and failed to do so. We have one less mother in the field :( Serena Williams retired with an injury. Day 5 was very entertaining, but onto to day 6.
Yesterday 1-0 +1 units
This tournament 13-11 -1.07 units
Since I started doing these write-ups 13-11 -1.07 units
All of these lines come from a local book that I use. I will say this often, BE SURE TO CHECK THE PRICES AT ALL THE BOOKS YOU CAN ACCESS. One of the easiest ways to be a better bettor is get the best prices. I’m using lines from my local to try to teach this lesson and make sure what I post is widely available to those who read. I’m sure anything I post in here is offered at a better number somewhere, so be smart and check all your outs before placing your wager. The first number after each player’s name is their US odds with decimal odds in parenthesis. I’ll list total games for every match and spreads for matches with a spread greater than 2.5 games. Anything less than that and just take the moneyline, no need to risk a bagel or breadstick ruining your favorite spread.
As for staking, 1 unit = 1% of my bankroll. Do what you’d like, but I think is the best plan for the long term. Almost all bets will be 1 unit, sometimes less and rarely more. If it’s a favorite then the bet is to win the number of units posted. For example, 1 unit on a -130 (1,77) is a 1.3 unit bet to win 1 unit. If it’s an underdog, then the bet is to risk the units posted. For example, 1 unit on +200 (3,00) is 1 unit to win 2 units. Feel free to DM @_Noops with any questions.
Naomi Osaka -335 vs Daniella Collins +265 Total Games 20.5 Spread -/+ 4.5 games
Danielle Collins has had as good of year as anyone so far. She’s 9-4 on the season and the average rank of the women who beat her was 23. Naomi Osaka has had some turmoil lately. She changed coaches and has mentioned on social media about how difficult things have been with outside pressure this season. I think Collins can take a set here and possibly win if Osaka isn’t totally focused. Let’s put half a unit on +265, half a unit on over 20.5 games and Bovada is offering Collins +1.5 sets at +100 (2,00) so let’s take that for another half unit.
Belinda Bencic -220 vs Ekaterina Alexandrova +170 Total Games 21 Spread -/+ 3.5 games
Pay no mind to the numbers above for Ms Bencic. Those are last year’s performances and this year has been much different. This is the right price. Alexandrova has played better than I expected in Indian Wells, but Bencic should be able to absorb her power and make her move laterally. -220 is an ok parlay piece, but I’m not terribly interested in that. 3.5 games is probably half a game too high. Pass.
Anastasija Sevastova -130 vs Anett Kontaveit +100 Total Games 21.5
I was excited to see this price. I expected this to be priced closely and I’ve happily taken Sevastova to win 1.5 units. Kontaveit is regularly priced like a top level player on hard courts and I have no idea why. She is 3-7 against the top 20 on hard courts since the beginning of last season. Sevastova is 5-5 over that same period against the top 20. You can also see above Sevastova’s average performance is over a game per match better against similar opponents. On clay, Kontaveit is a different story and although these courts are slow they are not clay. For those who followed my preview piece, you should be holding a Sevastova outright ticket at 50-1, do not hedge.
Ysaline Bonaventure +445 vs Karolina Pliskova Total Games 20 Spread +/- 5 games
Karolina Pliskova hasn’t looked great the past few weeks. She lost as set to Misaki Doi and in a tiebreaker no less. In Dubai she struggled with Dominika Cibulkova and Alison Riske before losing up a set to Su Wei Hsieh. I’ve been on Bonaventure a lot and I’m going to continue to be on her. Let’s put a quarter unit on +445 and half a unit on +5 games. I’m also going to add a full unit on over 20 games as well. Pliskova averages 22 games on hard courts and although the numbers above show Bonaventure mentions to be quick, when I look at her Challenger, ITF & qualifier matches she actually averages 23 games on hard courts.
Venus Williams -220 vs Christina McHale +170 Total Games 20.5 Spread -/+ 4 games
So Venus Williams got hurt in her first match and won in three sets anyway. She followed this up by beating Petra Kvitova in 3 sets. McHale stayed strong and bested Pavlyuchenkova in 3 sets after beating up on Maria Sukkari. I have no idea what to do with that moneyline or spread. I wanted to take McHale, but not at those prices. I do see that both women average over 22 games on hard courts and it’s been a week of overs. Full unit on over 20.5 games.
Mona Barthel +265 vs Julia Goerges -330 Total Games 20.5 Spread +/- 4.5 games
Goerges beat Barthel in Auckland 4 & 4. Goerges is a better player. Barthel is the worse player. Fairly simple stuff here folks. The price is right in my opinion. Goerges -330 in a parlay isn’t the worst idea, but I’ll likely pass on that.
Aryna Sabalenka -300 v Lesia Tsurenko +240 Total Games 20.5 Spread -/+ 4.5 games
I’m worried about my favorite player, Aryna The Amazonian Warrior Sabalenka. She’s had a lot of wins, but I think her win over Tomljanovic in 3 sets is her best win of the year. Tsurenko is better than Tomljanovic and better than anyone Sabalenka has beaten this year. I was shocked at this number. Tsurenko already beat Sabalenka 1 & 1 this year in Hobart. I don’t much care about that, but usually the line does. Would Tsurenko be +300 without that match? I don’t understand. Full unit on +4.5 games and half a unit on +240.
Natalia Vikhlyantseva +265 vs Angelique Kerber -335 Total Games 20 Spread Spread +/- 4.5 games
Vikhlyantseva has loved the courts in Indian Wells this week. Including qualifiers she’s played 4 matches and only lost 11 games. She’s averaging a win of 2 & 1. That’s absurd, be in awe of that. I bet against Natalia against Carla Suarez Navarro in the last round and was very very VERY much wrong about that. Kerber is a different player. This will be the toughest test Vikhlyantseva has faced all year and I expect her to falter. This line is right, Kerber deserves to be the dominant favorite. I have a Kerber 16-1 outright ticket and I’m not hedging.
Half unit Collins +265 (3,65)
Half unit Collins/Osaka over 20.5 games
Half unit Collins +1.5 sets +100 (2,00)
1.5 units Sevastova -130
Quarter unit Bonaventure +445 (5,45)
Half unit Bonaventure +5 games
Full unit Bonaventure/Pliskova over 20 games
Full unit Venus/McHale over 20.5 games
Full unit Tsurenko +4.5
Half unit Tsurenko +240 (3,40)