“I begged for the death-penalty, but they insisted that I’d learn a lesson.” – The greatest football player in the history of Polk High School
Yesterday was just about the worst day doing this I can remember. I forgot to include decimal odds in my write up and apparently that angered the tennis gods. I posted 10 picks and won 0. I got bageled. The high point of the day was a retirement by Anastasija Sevastova. Up second was Ysaline Bonaventure who was broken five times from *30-15 or better. We got close to going over in the Venus/McHale match, but Christina failed to hold serve twice to give us the game we needed in the 2nd set. Aryna The Amazonian Warrior Sabalenka was in full force. The day finished with Danielle Collins who was level with Naomi Osaka through 8 games. Osaka won 8 of the next 10 games. This is why I keep my stakes small. As horrible as that was, I still only lost 6.25% of my bankroll. Onto to another day.
Yesterday 0-9-1 -6.25 units
This tournament 12-20-1 -8.32 units
Since I started doing these write-ups 12-20-1 -8.32 units
All of these lines come from a local book that I use. I will say this often, BE SURE TO CHECK THE PRICES AT ALL THE BOOKS YOU CAN ACCESS. One of the easiest ways to be a better bettor is get the best prices. I’m using lines from my local to try to teach this lesson and make sure what I post is widely available to those who read. I’m sure anything I post in here is offered at a better number somewhere, so be smart and check all your outs before placing your wager. The first number after each player’s name is their US odds with decimal odds in parenthesis. I’ll list total games for every match and spreads for matches with a spread greater than 2.5 games. Anything less than that and just take the moneyline, no need to risk a bagel or breadstick ruining your favorite spread.
As for staking, 1 unit = 1% of my bankroll. Do what you’d like, but I think is the best plan for the long term. Almost all bets will be 1 unit, sometimes less and rarely more. If it’s a favorite then the bet is to win the number of units posted. For example, 1 unit on a -130 (1,77) is a 1.3 unit bet to win 1 unit. If it’s an underdog, then the bet is to risk the units posted. For example, 1 unit on +200 (3,00) is 1 unit to win 2 units. Feel free to DM @_Noops with any questions.
Naomi Osaka -185 (1,54) vs Belinda Bencic +155 (2,55) Total Games 21 Spread -/+ 3.5 games
As mentioned in my preview piece, this was the matchup I expected to decide who make the quarterfinals in the top half of the first quarter. Osaka has looked great so far. She exercised some demons against Kristina Mladenovic and had no issues in her aforementioned victory over Danielle Collins. Bencic has had little resistance thus far as well. This should be a great match. Both players like to stand close to the baseline on return. This puts more pressure on their opponents as they can fire the ball back more quickly. Both players have been able to keep their first serve in play about 65% of the time so far. I’m excited to see who blinks first and backs up on return. Osaka is the better player and should win this match, but that pricing is correct. It’s been a week of overs, but overs in Osaka matches are a dangerous game. Pass.
Anett Kontaveit +190 (2,90) vs Karolina Pliskova -240 (1,42) Total Games 21.5 Spread +/- 3.5 games
Pliskova is the better player. She beat Kontaveit the one time they played and beat her on clay which is Anett’s best surface. I see some value on Pliskova in these numbers. -240 is a good parlay piece and -3.5 games looks at least a half a game short. I’m going to bet Pliskova -3.5 games in some capacity, but let’s wait and see if I find a parlay partner for -240.
Venus Williams -320 (1,31) vs Mona Barthel +250 (3,50) Total Games 20.5 Spread -/+4.5 games
So I guess whatever happened to Venus Williams in her first match is fine now. After seeming incapable of holding her arm over her head in the 2nd set of her first match, she won that match, beat Petra Kvitova and took out Christina McHale. Barthel has slogged through 3 tough 3 set matches to get here. She’s coming off a win over her fellow countrywoman Julia Goerges. She has never so match as taken a set off Venus in their 3 previous encounters. -4.5 games is a little too expensive, but I like -320. I think that should be closer to -400. I think that’s my parlay partner for Pliskova.
Aryna Sabalenka -140 (1,71) vs Angelique Kerber +110 (2,10) Total Games 21.5
The final match of the day should be the best. Aryna The Amazonian Warrior Sabalenka seems to be finding some form in Indian Wells. She dropped a set to Alja Tomljanovic but served up a bagel in the 3rd. Her match against Lesia Tsurenko was never in doubt. Kerber has also looked good on these slow courts. She only lost 2 games against Yulia Putintseva then after dropping the first set, put away Natalia Vikhlyantseva pretty convincingly in sets 2 and 3. This is going to be great. Kerber should be able to absorb most of Sabalenka’s power, but will she able to hit the stellar return shots we’re used to seeing? Does Sabalenka have enough movement to stay with the crafty Kerber in longer rallies? The more I think about this match, the less I have any clue who’s going to win it. I do think this match has a very good chance to go 3 sets. 21.5 games is very high total and most scenarios that go over that total involve 3 sets. Bovada has over 2.5 sets at +140. I like that a lot better than over 21.5 -110. Give me over 2.5 sets for a full unit.
Kiki Bertens -135 (1,74) vs Garbiñe Muguruza +105 (2,05) Total Games 21.5
Well, it’s Kiki Bertens time, so be sure you know that I’m almost always wrong about her. As for the match, two fantastic players meet for the 4th time. Bertens is 3-1, but Muguruza has won the onlt head to head match in the last 2 years. Muguruza is so hard to predict. She looked locked in against Serena, but America’s (possibly) favorite mother was injured. Bertens is the much steadier player and these slow courts setup very well for her game. She has the serve to consolidate and will let Muguruza hit error after error. I hate to do this, but I’m going to trust my read on Kiki Bertens and take her to win a full unit.
Qiang Wang +100 (2,00) vs Bianca Andreescu -130 (1,77) Total Games 21
One of these women is very lucky to be here and the other is Canadian. Elise Mertens turned down several opportunities to win sets against Qiang Wang. Wang, to her credit, stood strong and seized the opportunity handed to her. Bianca Andreescu struggled in her first set and has steam rolled everyone since losing only 13 games in 6 sets. This match should go very similarly to Wang’s last. I expect Andreescu to have opportunities to close out sets and win this match. If she can stay focused and avoid errors she should win. If she becomes erratic and starts to spray the ball Wang will take advantage. My heart says Wang, my head says Andreescu with ease. I’ll just watch and enjoy. Pass.
Elina Svitolina -125 (1,80) vs Ashleigh Barty -105 (1,95) Total Games 21.5
I like Svitolina. Her elite movement in these conditions is ideal. Barty is a very good player, but I think she’s outclassed here. The two have played four times in the last two years. Svitolina won all 4. Barty is more a power player and that power is less effective on such slow courts. She’s a smart player, but I’m struggling to figure out how she beats Svitolina in this match. I’m betting Elina to win 1.5 units.
Marketa Vondrousova +235 (3,35) vs Simona Halep -285 (1,35) Total Games 20 Spread +/- 5 games
Vondrousova lost the first set, composed herself and put away Jelena Ostapenko. Simona Halep didn’t look good in her last match in which she struggled to beat Kateryna Kozlova in 2 sets. Kozlova is not nearly as good as Vondrousova and certainly not someone that Halep should be struggling to defeat. That said, Simona Halep will be the highest ranked player Vondrousova has ever played. Vondrousova has played Elina Svitolina twice and lost twice without much resistance. If you followed my preview you should be holding an outright ticket of a quarter of a unit on Vondrousova at 80-1. I’ve gone back and forth for about an hour now deciding whether or not to hedge and I think I’m going to let it ride. Vondrousova has been great and I still think Halep’s back is bothering her. I’m not backing Vondrousova in the match, but no hedging either. Pass.
Half unit Pliskova -3.5 games
Full unit parlay Pliskova/Venus -120 (1,83)
Full unit Sabalenka/Kerber over 2.5 sets +140 (2,40)
Full unit Bertens -135 (1,74)
1.5 units Svitolina -125 (1,80)