WTA Indian Wells Day 8

What an incredible day of tennis we had yesterday. Right from the start Garbiñe Muguruza fought her way to victory after losing the first set 7-5 to Kiki Bertens. Of course, I bet on Bertens which essentially guaranteed Muguruza’s victory so kudos to anyone that grabbed Garbiñe live. Marketa Vondrousova upset Simona Halep in the biggest win of her career and takes our 80/1 outright ticket all the way to the quarterfinals. The match between Elina Svitolina & Ashleigh Barty was a knockdown, drag out fight. At several points during the match they both seemed to have victory in their grasp, but Svitolina was able to survive in the longest match of 2019 (over 3 (3!) hours). Naomi Osaka looked frustrated by how great Belinda Benic was playing. Bencic continues to have flames shooting out of her butt. Karolina Pliskova & Anett Kontaveit played 3 sets of tennis while you hopefully watched Roger Federer and Stan Wawrinka. The final match of the night was a classic. Angelique Kerber served up a breadstick for Aryna The Amazonian Warrior Sabalenka in the first, but the resilient Sabalenka came back down an early break to win the second. Sabalenka continued to best Kerber and jumped out to a *4-1 lead in the 3rd set, but she would never win another game. Kerber won 5 games in a row to get our 16/1 outright ticket into the quarterfinals. On top of all that great tennis we even made a little profit. Let’s take a look at Day 8 which for someone reason only has 2 matches :(

Yesterday 3-2 +2 units

Indian Wells in Total 15-22-1 -6.32 units

Season to date 86-96-10 -2.43 Units Average Odds +110 Average Units/Bet 0.93

YTD Graph.jpg

All of these lines come from a local book that I use. I will say this often, BE SURE TO CHECK THE PRICES AT ALL THE BOOKS YOU CAN ACCESS. One of the easiest ways to be a better bettor is get the best prices. I’m using lines from my local to try to teach this lesson and make sure what I post is widely available to those who read. I’m sure anything I post in here is offered at a better number somewhere, so be smart and check all your outs before placing your wager. The first number after each player’s name is their US odds with decimal odds in parenthesis. I’ll list total games for every match and spreads for matches with a spread greater than 2.5 games. Anything less than that and just take the moneyline, no need to risk a bagel or breadstick ruining your favorite spread.

As for staking, 1 unit = 1% of my bankroll. Do what you’d like, but I think is the best plan for the long term. Almost all bets will be 1 unit, sometimes less and rarely more. If it’s a favorite then the bet is to win the number of units posted. For example, 1 unit on a -130 (1,77) is a 1.3 unit bet to win 1 unit. If it’s an underdog, then the bet is to risk the units posted. For example, 1 unit on +200 (3,00) is 1 unit to win 2 units. Feel free to DM @_Noops with any questions.

2019 IW Day 8.jpg

Garbiñe Muguruza -130 (1,77) vs Bianca Andreescu +100 (2,00) Total Games 21.5

It appears Muguruza is interested in playing tennis this week. Although she dropped the first set, she was never really in doubt of losing to Kiki Bertens yesterday. I hope she continues to be focused, because a motivated Muguruza is good for the WTA. One of my favorite new Canadian exports, Bianca Andreescu, continues to impress. Qiang Wang couldn’t handle Andreescu’s power. Looking back at her season, Andreescu is making a sneaky good case for player of the year so far. She made the final in Auckland, 2nd round of the Aussie after qualifying, won a smaller event in Newport Beach, made the semifinals in Acapulco and is in the quarterfinals in Indian Wells. This should be a great match and I think both women will have chances to advance, but there’s no value in the moneyline. I do think there’s a good chance we see 3 sets in this match. Instead of taking over 21.5 games, which in the WTA usually requires a 3rd set anyway, Bovada is offering over 2.5 sets at +145. I’m putting a full unit on that.

Elina Svitolina -180 (1,56) vs Marketa Vondrousova +150 (2,50) Total Games 20.5 Spread -/+ 3 games

Normally you’d love to fade the woman coming off a grueling, 3 set, 3 hour match or fade the woman coming off the biggest win of her career. What do you do when they play each other? Honestly, I’m not sure. There probably is the slightest bit of value here on Vondrousova, but I’m going to pass on the moneyline and the spread. I do like the total here. 20.5 games is a game too short in my opinion. I’m grabbing over 20.5 games for a full unit.

Now this section is for everyone holding a Vondrousova outright ticket at 80-1 (or hopefully better). We’ve made it all the way to the quarterfinals with a pretty big number, so let’s look to hedge and lock in some profit. This one is a little tricky, because I think Vondrousova can win this match. With that in mind, I’m going to hedge for a small amount. With only 3 matches left to win the tournament, we’re in a great position. Let’s take a look at how this hedge impacts the outright value and what a hedge in the next round would mean as well. Here’s a table with the numbers:

Hedge Calc.jpg

On the first line is our original bet, a quarter unit to win 20 units. If we place a full unit on Svitolina -180 (1,60) and Svitolina wins, we’ve won .3 units. Not spectacular, but it’s profit, and I think Vondrousova can beat Svitolina so I don’t want to give up too much value yet. If Vondrousova beats Svitolina, we now effectively have a 16-1 ticket in the semifinals which is still plenty of value to hedge again. Let’s assume the winner of Andreescu/Muguruza is -200(1,50). I expect the price to be much cheaper, but let’s be conservative. We could place a 4 unit bet on Adreescu/Muguruza and if Vondrousova loses we’ve locked in .75 units of profit, 3 times our initial stake. If Vondrousova wins we’ve now got a +380 bet on Vondrousova to win the final. At that point, if Vondrousova’s opponent is -200 (1,50) we can place a 13.5 unit bet on her opponent and guarantee a 1.5 unit profit no matter who wins.

It’s a lot of work, but we can guarantee ourselves some winnings. I’m going to place the first hedge bet on Svitolina. I’ll continue to update if Vondrousova keeps winning. Anyone who lives in a country with a book that has a cash out button has things much easier. Sadly, the USA hasn’t gotten there yet so we’re stuck with this. Hopefully that all made sense. If not, send me a message @_Noops. I’d be happy to explain further or even update the table above if you got a better number than 80-1.

Recap

Full unit Andreescu/Muguruza over 2.5 sets +145 (2,45)

Full unit Svitolina/Vondrousova over 20.5 games

Hedge Bet (ONLY BET THIS IF YOU HAVE A VONDROUSOVA OUTRIGHT) Svitolina 180 (1,56) to win .56 units