Garbiñe Muguruza is one of the most frustrating players in the WTA. If you’re an ATP fan, she’s somewhere in between Fognini and Kyrgios. She is a 2 time grand slam champion. She defeated Serena in Rolland Garros and Venus at the All England Club. She made another Wimbledon final and lost to Serena. At times, she has seemingly endless capability. Other times, she comes out and wins 1 game in the quarterfinal of the “5th slam.” I talked yesterday about how impressive Bianca Andreescu has been this year and she looked incredible yesterday. My concern is that because Muguruza is so unreliable, I don’t know if she just didn’t show up or if this is the most impressive win in Andreescu’s career. She looked fantastic and I’m going to assume it was mostly her brilliance, but thanks Garbiñe for ruining yet another moment in the WTA.
Elina Svitolina really loves to play tennis. She must, because she clearly doesn’t mind going 3 sets. In her last 30 matches, 16 have gone 3 sets and she’s 10-6 in those matches. Marketa Vondrousova came out playing some impressive tennis taking the first set 6-4, but Svitolina dug deep and won the final 2 sets to win the quarter. Down goes another outright, but luckily we hedged and locked in a little value. We still have a ticket on Angelique Kerber, but more on that in a bit.
Yesterday 3-2 +2 units
Indian Wells in Total 15-22-1 -6.32 units
Season to date 86-96-10 -2.43 Units Average Odds +110 Average Units/Bet 0.93
All of these lines come from a local book that I use. I will say this often, BE SURE TO CHECK THE PRICES AT ALL THE BOOKS YOU CAN ACCESS. One of the easiest ways to be a better bettor is get the best prices. I’m using lines from my local to try to teach this lesson and make sure what I post is widely available to those who read. I’m sure anything I post in here is offered at a better number somewhere, so be smart and check all your outs before placing your wager. The first number after each player’s name is their US odds with decimal odds in parenthesis. I’ll list total games for every match and spreads for matches with a spread greater than 2.5 games. Anything less than that and just take the moneyline, no need to risk a bagel or breadstick ruining your favorite spread.
As for staking, 1 unit = 1% of my bankroll. Do what you’d like, but I think is the best plan for the long term. Almost all bets will be 1 unit, sometimes less and rarely more. If it’s a favorite then the bet is to win the number of units posted. For example, 1 unit on a -130 (1,77) is a 1.3 unit bet to win 1 unit. If it’s an underdog, then the bet is to risk the units posted. For example, 1 unit on +200 (3,00) is 1 unit to win 2 units. Feel free to DM @_Noops with any questions.
Belinda Bencic -130 (1,77) vs Karolina Pliskova +100 (2,00) Total Games 21.5
Belinda Bencic has won 9 matches in a row. During that streak she defeated the #1, #2, #4, #6 and #9 ranked woman in the world. In her quest to close out the single digits, she faces #5 Karolina Pliskova. Last we saw Pliskova the Greater she was struggling to beat Anett Kontaveit. Pliskova really hasn’t looked good since the Australian Open. I’m surprised this line is so close. Pliskova has the name recognition and the ranking, but Bencic is certainly not an unknown player. Her title win in Dubai was especially impressive and talked about often in the tennis community. I’m passing on the moneyline. This does look like a great spot to bet over 2.5 sets. The total is at 21.5 which is a tough over to hit in just 2 sets. Instead of over 21.5 games at -110 (1,90) let’s go to Bovada and put a full unit on over 2.5 sets at +150 (2,50). Even if Bencic continues to play at this high level, Pliskova has the serve and mental fortitude to win a set. +150 gives us an implied probability of 40% and I think the chance of 3 sets is closer to 50%.
Venus Williams +165 (2,65) vs Angelique Kerber -205 (1,49) Total Games 21 Spread +/- 3.5 games
Venus Williams loves it in Indian Wells. She’s 11-2 on these courts since in the last 3 years. She won her last 2 match 2-0, but at no point looked to be playing great tennis. Kerber is coming off back to back 3 set battles with Natalia Vikhlyantseva and Aryna The Amazonian Warrior Sabalenka. I picked Kerber to win the tournament and I continue to believe she will, so no hedging our 16-1 outright ticket this week. -3.5 games is just about right, if it were only 3 games I might lay the games. -205 (1,49) looks right on the moneyline. I do see another good spot for an over, but 21 games is a solid number. Over 2.5 sets is +150 (2,50), but this should be over in 2. Pass.
Full unit Bencic/Pliskova over 2.5 sets +150 (2,50)