One of the most frustrating aspects of betting on tennis is the lack of information on player health before matches. In the NFL, the NBA, MLB and even the NHL we know who’s hurt, what’s hurt and how bad it is. Maybe I’m just spoiled, but it would have been really great to know that Elina Svitolina had an MRI on her knee before the tournament in Indian Wells started. She played the entire week or so of matches with pain and inflammation in that knee. I’m glad she gritted out several wins, but how am I just finding out about this now? Regardless, how stinking good is Bianca Andreescu. My word has been impressive and was again in besting Svitolina in 3 sets in our first semi-final. In the other semi-final, Angelique Kerber ended Belinda Bencic’s destruction of the top 10. Kerber did what she did best and redirected Bencic’s power and used her craftiness and superior movement to advance to the final in 2 pretty easy sets. Both Andreescu and Kerber are playing great tennis as we head to the final in Indian Wells.
Yesterday 0-1 -1.15 units
Indian Wells in Total 17-24-1 -5.97 units
Season to date 87-98-10 -2.08 Units Average Odds +110 Average Units/Bet 0.93
All of these lines come from a local book that I use. I will say this often, BE SURE TO CHECK THE PRICES AT ALL THE BOOKS YOU CAN ACCESS. One of the easiest ways to be a better bettor is get the best prices. I’m using lines from my local to try to teach this lesson and make sure what I post is widely available to those who read. I’m sure anything I post in here is offered at a better number somewhere, so be smart and check all your outs before placing your wager. The first number after each player’s name is their US odds with decimal odds in parenthesis. I’ll list total games for every match and spreads for matches with a spread greater than 2.5 games. Anything less than that and just take the moneyline, no need to risk a bagel or breadstick ruining your favorite spread.
As for staking, 1 unit = 1% of my bankroll. Do what you’d like, but I think is the best plan for the long term. Almost all bets will be 1 unit, sometimes less and rarely more. If it’s a favorite then the bet is to win the number of units posted. For example, 1 unit on a -130 (1,77) is a 1.3 unit bet to win 1 unit. If it’s an underdog, then the bet is to risk the units posted. For example, 1 unit on +200 (3,00) is 1 unit to win 2 units. Feel free to DM @_Noops with any questions.
Angelique Kerber -180 (1,56) vs Bianca Andreescu +150 (2,50) Total Games 21.5 Spread -/+ 3 games
I feel like I’ve written this next part a couple times already. Bianca Andreescu is on an incredible run and now meets arguably the best player she’s ever faced. The first time I wrote that, she blew away Garbiñe Muguruza 0 & 1. The second time she beat Elina Svitolina in a tough 3 setter. Now she faces Angelique Kerber who has the skills and cunning to handle Andreescu’s power. Kerber did just that in her last match against Belinda Bencic and earlier this week against Aryna Sabalenka. Kerber moves with skill and purpose all over the court to find the best angles to send back big, powerful serves and shots.
This should be a great match and I really have no idea who’s going to win. The market has been all over Kerber. She opened -140 (1,71) and is now -180 (1,56). That’s going from and implied probability of 58.3% up to 64.3%. That’s a 10.2% change in value, or 10.2% closing line value, which some would call “historic.” Congratulations to anyone who jumped on Kerber early. At this point, there’s probably a little value on Andreescu, but I’m going to pass and look to see if the young Canadian can continue her ascent or if Kerber is going to take her first title of the year reminding us she belongs in the very top tier of players.
This has been a tournament of overs and this looks like another great spot for an over. As I mentioned previously, I hate taking over 21.5 games. Historically, only 44% of matches in Indian Wells go over 21.5 games. I don’t hate the idea of taking over 2.5 sets which is available at Bovada for +145 (2,45). That price is actually a little expensive. To my surprise, only 76.63% of matches that go over 21.5 games also go over 2.5 sets. I guess there are more 7-6/5 6-3/4 matches than I remember. With a rate of 76.63% and the market setting over 21.5 games at -110 (1,91) then I would want over 2.5 sets to be at least +149(2,49). Check out this table:
If you absolutely must have some action (AND YOU NEVER EVER EVER EVER EVER NEVER HAVE TO BET) then I would suggest either over 21.5 games or over 2.5 sets. Based on pricing these are roughly the same bet. If you can make a wager live then I would suggest you wait for the first break and then bet whomever was broken. This should be a back and forth match and I think whoever is broken first will have a chance to win the match anyway.
For those who read my preview and are holding a Kerber 16-1 outright ticket, let’s look at a hedge to lock in some profit. We covered our Vondrousova outright ticket with a hedge earlier. We did never get a chance to cover our Sevastova outright because she retired, so let’s toss that into the equation too. We have hedged our Kerber outright once already with a 1.5 unit bet on Bencic. The table below shows that if we put all that together our 16-1 outright is now a 3.56-1 outright. If we place a 3.4 unit bet on Andreescu at +150 (2,50) then we are guaranteed a 2.85 unit profit and we’ve covered our loss on Sevastova. That’s what I’m going to do, but best of luck to those of you brave enough to let it ride.