Yesterday 3-1 +2.5 unit
Season to date 123-163-14 -27.52 Units Average Odds -105 Average Units/Bet 1.02
All of these lines come from a local book that I use. I will say this often, BE SURE TO CHECK THE PRICES AT ALL THE BOOKS YOU CAN ACCESS. One of the easiest ways to be a better bettor is get the best prices. I’m using lines from my local to try to teach this lesson and make sure what I post is widely available to those who read. I’m sure anything I post in here is offered at a better number somewhere, so be smart and check all your outs before placing your wager. The first number after each player’s name is their US odds with decimal odds in parenthesis. I’ll list total games for every match and spreads for matches with a spread greater than 2.5 games. Anything less than that and just take the moneyline, no need to risk a bagel or breadstick ruining your favorite spread.
As for staking, 1 unit = 1% of my bankroll. Do what you’d like, but I think is the best plan for the long term. Almost all bets will be 1 unit, sometimes less and rarely more. If it’s a favorite then the bet is to win the number of units posted. For example, 1 unit on a -130 (1,77) is a 1.3 unit bet to win 1 unit. If it’s an underdog, then the bet is to risk the units posted. For example, 1 unit on +200 (3,00) is 1 unit to win 2 units. Feel free to DM @_Noops with any questions.
Marketa Vondrousova -195 (1,51) vs Petra Martic +155 (2,55) Total Games 21 Spread -/+ 3.5 games
We have the tale of 2 tournaments in this match. Martic went 3 sets in each of her matches before getting a retirement out of Margarita Gasparyan in the semifinals. She lost the first set to Zidansek and Ana Bogdan and needed 2 tiebreak wins to best Kristina Mladenovic in match that lasted over 3 hours. Vondrousova hasn’t lost a set since Miami. In this event she is only losing about 5 games per match, so her average score is 6-2 6-3 and her competition has been good. She’s beaten Tomljanovic, Kuznetsova, Arruabarrena & Strycova on her stroll to the final. Vondrousova has only spent about 5 hours playing tennis this week while Martic is close to 8.5 hours and that includes a 52 minute match against Gasparyan. The numbers above are pretty close and both were at lower levels, but Vondrousova’s are a bit better. All signs point to Marketa. Martic is a fighter, so I’ll pass on the spread, but the moneyline is a great parlay piece. This will be a continuation of an incredible season for the young Czech star. She’s only lost 3 matches since January and the winning should continue.
Anett Kontaveit +150 (2,50) vs Petra Kvitova -180 (1,55) Total Games 21.5 Spread +/- 3 games
Hopefully you listened to the Net Worth Podcast (@NetWorthPod), because listeners are holding outright tickets for both of these women. We grabbed Kvitova 7-1 and Kontaveit 28-1 before the tournament and couldn’t be happier the way things turned out. This should be an awesome match. Kvitova is one of the very best players in the world and Kontaveit is a force on the dirt. Kontaveit had the day off as Osaka withdrew while Kvitova was fighting through 3 sets with Kiki Bertens. Kvitova’s 3rd set in that match was incredible. She only lost 1 game and her serve was locked in. She’s playing some top level tennis and her best is better than Anett’s best. That said, Kontaveit can hang. She loves long matches is rarely beaten easily. +3 games is tough given how many breadsticks & bagels Kvitova hands out. The total is huge at 21.5, but I do like over 2.5 sets at +170 (2,70) at Bovada. 77% of matches that go over 21.5 also go over 2.5 sets. Given that the price on over 2.5 sets should be closer to +140 (2,40) which means we’ve got a nice edge. Half a unit on over 2.5 sets.
Stuttgart – Over 2.5 sets Kvitova/Kontaveit