WTA Istanbul Day 1

Season to date 115-149-12 -21.10 Units Average Odds -103 Average Units/Bet 0.97

All of these lines come from a local book that I use. I will say this often, BE SURE TO CHECK THE PRICES AT ALL THE BOOKS YOU CAN ACCESS. One of the easiest ways to be a better bettor is get the best prices. I’m using lines from my local to try to teach this lesson and make sure what I post is widely available to those who read. I’m sure anything I post in here is offered at a better number somewhere, so be smart and check all your outs before placing your wager. The first number after each player’s name is their US odds with decimal odds in parenthesis. I’ll list total games for every match and spreads for matches with a spread greater than 2.5 games. Anything less than that and just take the moneyline, no need to risk a bagel or breadstick ruining your favorite spread.

As for staking, 1 unit = 1% of my bankroll. Do what you’d like, but I think is the best plan for the long term. Almost all bets will be 1 unit, sometimes less and rarely more. If it’s a favorite then the bet is to win the number of units posted. For example, 1 unit on a -130 (1,77) is a 1.3 unit bet to win 1 unit. If it’s an underdog, then the bet is to risk the units posted. For example, 1 unit on +200 (3,00) is 1 unit to win 2 units. Feel free to DM @_Noops with any questions.

Istanbul

Rebecca Peterson -770 (1,12) vs Pemra Ozgen +520 (6,20) Total Games 18.5 Spread -/+ 6 games

There’s essentially nothing to speak of for either on clay at the WTA level. Peterson does have some impressive performances at lower levels. 19-3 over the last 2 years and she averaged +4.8 games in those matches. Ozgen has played a lot on clay at lower levels as well, but with much less success. She’s 15-16 and averaged +.12 games. Ozgen is an older player and a local wild card. I love taking local players, especially as big underdogs, but this is not the spot. Peterson is clearly the better player although the price seems a bit too expensive. Pass.

Petra Martic -215 (1,46) vs Tamara Zidansek +165 (2,65) Total Games 20 Spread -/+ 4 games

This should be a great match. Martic made it all the way to semifinals in Charleston playing her best tennis so far this year. You can see a solid hold+break rate above and was 18-3 at lower levels with an average games of +4.9. Zidansek is a great clay player. 10-3 with a hold+break of 116 last year is impressive. She is 38-9 the last 2 years on clay at lower levels with an average games 3.4. I wish Zidansek were in better form. This match should be lined closer to even. Zidansek has been serving well, but has had trouble breaking this season. I still think she has a good chance to win this match, but given recent struggles I can’t go with a full unit, so just half a unit on Zidansek.

Johanna Larsson +160 (2,60) vs Margarita Gasparyan -200 (1,50) Total Games 20.5 Spread +/- 3.5 games

Margarita Gasparyan has not played a match on clay since 2016. One more time just so that you can be perfectly clear. Margarita Gasparyan has not played a match on clay since 2016. Why on earth is she such a big favorite? Larsson isn’t great, but 9-5 with a hold+break of 101 is solid. She was also 10-2 with an average games of +3.6 games below the WTA level. Margarita Gasparyan has not played a match on clay since 2016. Larsson has been bad this year. Outside of Fed Cup, she is 1-7. She hasn’t won a set in 2 months. So I can’t put a full unit on her, but Margarita Gasparyan has not played a match on clay since 2016 so I have to allocate some capital on Larsson. Half unit on Larsson.

Recap

Half unit – Zidansek +165 (2,65)

Half unit – Larsson +160 (2,60)