Yesterday 0-2 -1 unit
Season to date 115-151-12 -22.10 Units Average Odds -103 Average Units/Bet 0.97
All of these lines come from a local book that I use. I will say this often, BE SURE TO CHECK THE PRICES AT ALL THE BOOKS YOU CAN ACCESS. One of the easiest ways to be a better bettor is get the best prices. I’m using lines from my local to try to teach this lesson and make sure what I post is widely available to those who read. I’m sure anything I post in here is offered at a better number somewhere, so be smart and check all your outs before placing your wager. The first number after each player’s name is their US odds with decimal odds in parenthesis. I’ll list total games for every match and spreads for matches with a spread greater than 2.5 games. Anything less than that and just take the moneyline, no need to risk a bagel or breadstick ruining your favorite spread.
As for staking, 1 unit = 1% of my bankroll. Do what you’d like, but I think is the best plan for the long term. Almost all bets will be 1 unit, sometimes less and rarely more. If it’s a favorite then the bet is to win the number of units posted. For example, 1 unit on a -130 (1,77) is a 1.3 unit bet to win 1 unit. If it’s an underdog, then the bet is to risk the units posted. For example, 1 unit on +200 (3,00) is 1 unit to win 2 units. Feel free to DM @_Noops with any questions.
Carla Suarez Navarro -270 (1,37) vs Lara Arruabarrena +220 (3,20) Total Games 19.5 Spread -/+ 5 games
Last season’s clay numbers were pretty similar, but CSN played a better average competition. The year before is no contest, CSN was much better and one of the better clay players on tour. She, however, is in very poor form the past month. CSN was knocked out of the first round of her last 3 WTA events. She did win 2 matches in the Fed Cup, but both were on hard courts. I’d love to find a way to bet on Arruabarrena. Most of her success on clay comes in one tournament, Bogota, which was 2 weeks ago. She makes the quarterfinals or better there every year but hasn’t made the QFs in another WTA event since 2015. It seems she’s only successful in Bogota. The over is tempting as well, but I’m going to pass on this match.
Cagla Buyukakcay +380 (4,80) vs Svetlana Kuznetsova -480 (1,21) Total Games 19.5 Spread +/- 5.5 games
Cagla is a 30 year old local wild card and ranked #256 in the world. She has played in one other WTA main draw since Istanbul last year. I do love homecourt advantage, but this is not the time or place for that. Kuznetsova is a very solid clay player and should win this match easily. That said, this is a very expensive price for a player who’s playing her second event since last September. I’m going to pass here as well. Hopefully Kuznetsova plays well and continues her strong comeback from injury.
Viktoria Kuzmova -115 (1,87) vs Barbora Strycova -115 (1,87) Total Games 20.5
Strycova had an awful year on clay last year, 0-4 & hold+break 71%, despite a solid 2017, 7-5 & hold+break 105%. She hasn’t won 2 matches in the same tournament since June of last year. She’s 33 and headed towards the end of her career. She retired from Fed Cup matches last year and has mentioned retiring in a few interviews. Kuzmova as at the other end of the spectrum. She’s a young player who’s starting to put together a nice season. She’s 7-4 since February, but her 4 losses were to Shuai Zhang, Iga Swiatek, Kiki Bertens & Petra Kvitova. There’s no shame in that. Nothing good at the WTA level last season, but she’s 25-11 on clay at lower levels averaging +2.5 games in those matches. I think this is a great spot to take Kuzmova. Young player starting to up her level against an older player out of form AND she has better clay performances in general. 1.5 units on Kuzmova.
Sorana Cirstea -210 (1,48) vs Irina Bara +170 (2,70) Total Games 20.5 Spread -/+ 4 games
What you see above was Cirstea’s entire year on clay and there is nothing to get very excited about in my opinion. 2017 was good, but that was also the last year Cirstea won more than 2 matches at the same event. Bara loves the dirt. Smaller sample size, but better numbers last year and Bara 52-29 with an average games of +2.5 below the WTA level. This line should be much closer. Bara doesn’t play at the WTA level as often, but Cirstea rarely plays tennis. She’s averaging about one event per month this season. Full unit on +4 games and half a unit on +170.
Pauline Parmentier -220 (1,45) vs Evgeniya Rodina +175 (2,75) Total Games 20.5 Spread -/+ 3.5 games
Parmentier is the defending champion here and that’s driving most of favorability you see above. Outside of that result, her numbers look just about the same as Rodina, bad. This is going to be an ugly match. Pass. Pass on betting AND watching.
Elena Rybakina +175 (2,75) vs Katerina Siniakova -220 (1,45) Total Games 20.5 Spread +/- 4 games
We have another opportunity to see if Siniakova can fulfill her potential and match all the talent she shows in her doubles matches. She’s had a rough season and is 2-8 at the WTA level. I would love to take the underdog, but I’m going to pass. Rybakina qualified and comes into this event in great form, but she just doesn’t have good numbers on clay. She’s only 9-8 below the WTA level. I’ll pass.
Maria Sakkari -145 (1,69) vs Veronica Kudermetova +115 (2,15) Total Games 20.5
This should be a fun match. Sakkari is good tour player and solid on the red dirt. Kudermetova is putting together a nice season with a win in Guadalajara and some nice showings at the WTA level. She made the quarterfinals in Lugano losing to the eventual champion. There’s likely just a bit of value on the dog, but I’ll pass and just enjoy the watch.
Timea Babos +165 (2,65) vs Ivana Jorovic -205 (1,49) Total Games 20.5 Spread +/- 3 games
Julia Glushko +355 (4,55) vs Mihaela Buzarnescu -505 (1,20) Total Games 19.5 Spread +/- 5.5 games
Buzarnescu is a very good clay player and will be a strong presence during the clay season. Glushko is not a good clay player and will not be doing much, if anything, of note during the clay season. Buzarnescu had a rough ankle injury at the end of last season, but she looked better in Charleston. It’s a very expensive price, but I have no case at all to make for the underdog. Pass.
Elise Mertens -230 (1,43) vs Daria Kasatkina +180 (2,80) Total Games 20.5 Spread -/+ 4 games
Elise Mertens is one of the best clay players on tour. Kasatkina used to be one of the best clay players on tour. In a big moment at the end of last season, the “Russian Wall” won the title in Moscow. Since then, she’s been more of the “Russian Sieve.” She’s 5-8 since then with losses to Kimmy Birrell and Timea Bacsinszky. This will also be her first match on clay this season. Maybe she finds her form and gets closer to her level from last year. I’m not counting on that. Mertens should win this match and is a great parlay piece at that price.
Anastasija Sevastova -125 (1,80) vs Jelena Ostapenko -105 (1,95) Total Games 21
2 mercurial Latvians enter, 1 leaves. Both have some excellent numbers on clay the last 2 seasons, but lately things look different. Ostapenko hasn’t found her best form since 2017. Maybe that was her peak and this is who she actually is, but I don’t believe that. She could use a real coach. I’m sure her mom is great and I LOVE ALL MOTHERS. YOU ARE HEROS AND DESERVES AWARDS AND ADORATION, but, maybe a professional tennis coach would be better since Jelena is a professional tennis player. Sevastova retired with “injury” down 0-5 in Indian Wells, won a match in Miami, but then lost to Putintseva and got smoked 4 & 2 by Pegula. She has complained again of a shoulder injury which has apparently kept her out of the last few events. This should be a great match, but I see no angle on either woman or the total. Pass.
Lesia Tsurenko +135 (2,35) vs Laura Siegemund -165 (1,61) Total Games 20.5 Spread +/- 3 games
Seigemund is a very good clay player. She’s also playing her in home country in a tournament she won in 2017 after finishing 2nd in 2016. Her form recently hasn’t been great, losing 2 & 2 to Wozniacki in Charleston and 2 & 5 to Hadda Maia in Bogota, but Wozniacki is one of the best players on tour and Haddad Maia was redlining in favorable conditions. Siegemund is going to win this match. This is my parlay partner for Mertens and I’ll put half a unit on -3 games as well.
Sara Sorribes Tormo +100 (2,00) vs Andrea Petkovic -130 (1,77) Total Games 21.5
One of these women is a solid, WTA level clay player and the other woman is the favorite. She had a better record, average games and hold+break than Petkovic last season. Both have similar numbers at lower levels, but Tormo has been the better player in the bigger events. Tormo comes into this event in good form. She made the quarterfinals in Bogota and won 3 matches here already to qualify. Petkovic has only 2 wins all season at the WTA level. Full unit on Tormo.
Greetje Minnen +205 (3,05) v Dominika Cibulkova -275 (1,36) Total Games 20 Spread +/- 4.5 games
Minnen qualified for this event and has had some solid results at lower levels. She was 19-6 and averaged +4.6 games, but against an average rank of 766. Cibulkova had a rough hard court season with a record of 1-5, but won 2 matches in straight sets losing only 8 games in the Fed Cup on the dirt. She’s the better player and has had success on clay. She’s a deserving favorite, but I don’t think she has the form yet to be trustworthy. Pass.
Kiki Bertens -500 (1,20) vs Anna Friedsam +350 (4,50) Total Games 19.5 Spread -/+ 5 games
I do not bet on matches involving Kiki Bertens. Whenever I bet on her, she loses. Whenever I bet against her, she wins. She is a phenomenal clay player, one of the very best in the world, and deserving of the pricing we see above. Pass.
Istanbul - 1.5 units – Kuzmova -115 (1,87)
Istanbul - 1 unit – Bara +4 games
Istanbul - Half unit – Bara +170 (2,70)
Stuttgart – 1 unit – parlay Mertens/Siegemund +130 (2,30)
Stuttgart – Half unit – Siegemund -3 games
Stuttgart – Full unit – Tormo +100 (2,00)