WTA Istanbul Day 3 & Stuttgart Day 2

 

Yesterday 1-5 -4.82 unit

Season to date 116-156-12 -26.92 Units Average Odds -103 Average Units/Bet 0.97

All of these lines come from a local book that I use. I will say this often, BE SURE TO CHECK THE PRICES AT ALL THE BOOKS YOU CAN ACCESS. One of the easiest ways to be a better bettor is get the best prices. I’m using lines from my local to try to teach this lesson and make sure what I post is widely available to those who read. I’m sure anything I post in here is offered at a better number somewhere, so be smart and check all your outs before placing your wager. The first number after each player’s name is their US odds with decimal odds in parenthesis. I’ll list total games for every match and spreads for matches with a spread greater than 2.5 games. Anything less than that and just take the moneyline, no need to risk a bagel or breadstick ruining your favorite spread.

As for staking, 1 unit = 1% of my bankroll. Do what you’d like, but I think is the best plan for the long term. Almost all bets will be 1 unit, sometimes less and rarely more. If it’s a favorite then the bet is to win the number of units posted. For example, 1 unit on a -130 (1,77) is a 1.3 unit bet to win 1 unit. If it’s an underdog, then the bet is to risk the units posted. For example, 1 unit on +200 (3,00) is 1 unit to win 2 units. Feel free to DM @_Noops with any questions.

Istanbul

Marketa Vondrousova -195 (1,51) vs Ajla Tomljanovic +155 (2,55) Total Games 20.5 Spread -/+ 3.5 games

Vondrousova is a great clay player. On top of what you see above, she’s 16-1 averaging +6 games at lower levels. Tomljanovic is solid, but nowhere near as good as you see that in the pricing. Vondrousova hasn’t played and event since Miami in March, but she did get 2 Fed Cup matches in on clay and dominated both. Ajla played Charleston, but that’s green, harder clay and not the red, loose dirt we have here. I really want to parlay Vondrousova with something, but I’m going to pass. Tomljanovic has the overall talent to play great and maybe knock Marketa out of the tournament. Pass.

Kirsten Flipkens -115 (1,87) vs Ana Bogdan -115 (1,87) Total Games 21.5

Flipkens has probably coached more matches than she’s played this year. This will also be her first clay match of the year. Before getting to Istanbul, Bogdan had only won 1 match since November of last year. The numbers above are pretty close, so I guess the moneyline is correct. I do like the total though. Both averaged over 22 games on clay last year. Over 21.5 can be messy in the WTA, but over 2.5 sets is +155 (2,55) at Bovada. Based on historical averages, that price should be +137 (2,37) so we’ve got a 7.6% edge before considering that each like longer matches. Half a unit on over 2.5 sets.

Kateryna Kozlova -115 (1,87) vs Anastasia Potapova -115 (1,87) Total Games 21.5

Potapova’s numbers are better at the WTA level, but with a small sample size. At lower levels Kozlova has actually been better. She’s 17-5 averaging +2.8 games against an average rank of 243 versus Potapova who’s 13-8 averaging +1.6 games against an average rank of 346. This is going to be a close match and one I hope to watch. I do like the over but as mentioned, over 21.5 is not fun. Over 2.5 sets is +155 (2,55) again and offers a 7.6% edge and that’s before thinking about how tight the match will be. Half a unit on over 2.5 sets.

Kristina Mladenovic +160 (2,60) vs Dayana Yastremska -200 (1,50) Total Games 20.5 Spread +/- 3.5 games

Mladenovic had a great 2017 on the dirt. She made the finals in Stuttgart, the finals in Madrid and the quarterfinals in Rolland Garros. Since then? She’s 3-7 on clay. Yastremska has effectively spent no time on clay at the WTA level, but at lower levels she’s 23-10 averaging +3.0 games, but against an average rank of 247. I think Yastremska wins, but I’m going to pass.

Barbora Strycova -130 (1,76) vs Sorana Cirstea +100 (2,00) Total Games 21

I bet against both off these women in round 1. Strycova lost the first set and was down a break in the 3rd before beating Kuzmova. Cirstea lost the first set 2 and then won the next 12 games. I actually think Cirstea should be favored, but neither really ever plays on clay. Pass.

Margarita Gasparyan +160 (2,60) vs Mihaela Buzarnescu -200 (1,50) Total Games 20.5 Spread +/- 3.5 games

Gasparyan played her first clay match since 2016 in round 1. She was down 5-1 in the first, but somehow won the set in a tiebreak. She lost the second and won the 3rd by 1 one break to win the match. Buzarnescu was great on clay at the WTA level last year, was 22-4 at lower levels and seems to be recovered from her ankle injury. She’s winning this match. The moneyline is a great parlay piece and I’ll even put a full unit on the spread.

Lara Arruabarrena +130 (2,30) vs Rebecca Peterson -160 (1,62) Total Games 21

Peterson is 19-3 at lower levels averaging +4.8 games, but that was facing an average rank of 326. Arruabarrena has had success, albeit mostly in Bogota, at the WTA level on clay. I think the wrong women is favored here. Peterson has only 4 wins at the WTA level this year and 1 was a 3 set struggle in round 1 against a #237 ranked local wild card. Arruabarrena beat Carla Suarez Navarro in 2 sets. Full unit on Arruabarrena.

Pauline Parmentier -130 (1,76) vs Elena Ryakina +100 (2,00) Total Games 21

Parmentier is the defending champion and a solid clay player. Rybakina is good at lower levels, but her round 1 win doubled her WTA level clay wins. Parmentier deserves to be the favorite. Pass.

Stuttgart

Qiang Wang -130 (1,76) vs Su Wei Hsieh +100 (2,00) Total Games 21

This should be a lot of fun. 2 crafty players that always play with a lot of effort should generate some great rallies on the dirt. Last year’s numbers were pretty close. Wang was better at lower levels, but I’m going to put that aside and pass.

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova -110 (1,91) vs Julia Goerges -120 (1,83) Total Games 21.5

This will also be a good match. The numbers are close, but slightly in Pavlyuchenkova’s favor. Goerges is playing in front of a home crowd. She won this event in 2011, but is 4-6 since then in Stuttgart. It’s also Goerges 2nd clay match and her first on the red dirt, not the harder green clay. Pavs had 2 easy warmup Fed Cup matches on clay. I’m surprised she’s not the favorite, but there’s not enough value to make a play. Pass.

Caroline Garcia -110 (1,91) vs Anett Kontaveit -120 (1,83) Total Games 21

On a day with plenty of good matches, this will be the best of the bunch. There have been top level results from both players the last 2 seasons. Kontaveit made the semifinals in Miami in her last event. Garcia hasn’t had to play Jennifer Brady in a month and has found some good form as well. She beat Buzarnescu in the Fed Cup on clay 3 & 3 and pushed Halep to 3 sets on the dirt. This is going to be a great match. I lean Kontaveit, but this is her first clay match of the year. I will be betting on the over. Both average over 21 games and this could even go 3 sets.

Mandy Minella +245 (3,45) vs Belinda Bencic -305 (1,30) Total Games 19.5 Spread +/- 4.5 games

We talked on the Net Worth Podcast (@NetWorthPod) about Bencic on clay this past weekend. She hadn’t played on clay since the French Open in 2018. She won 3 matches Charleston but against Destanee Aiava, Allie Kiick & Taylor Townsend. That’s hardly anything to get excited about. She lost in 2 sets in Lugano to #182, Andrea Lottner. We have little to indicate she is a strong clay player despite her incredible performances on hard courts this year. As you can see above, Minella has been solid on clay at the WTA level and at lower levels she was 21-5 and averaged +3.9 games. There is no reason that Bencic is such a big favorite. Full unit on Minella +4.5 games and half a unit on +245 (3,45).

Donna Vekic -425 (1,23) vs Guilia Monticone +310 (4,10) Total Games 19.5 Spread -/+ 5.5 games

One is a good WTA level player who likes the clay and the other is a solid lower level clay player. Vekic should have no issues here, but I have no interest in such a big spread. Pass.

Vera Zvonareva +180 (2,80) vs Victoria Azarenka -225 (1,44) Total Game 20.5 Spread +/- 3.5 games

Neither of these women is very good on clay and neither really ever plays on clay. Azarenka is coming from Australia, although she’s had an extra day and Zvonareva is a here as a lucky loser. Not sure what to make of this match or price. Pass.

Greetje Minnen +400 (5,00) vs Petra Kvitova -575 (1,73) Total Games 19.5 Spread +/- 5.5 games

Kvitova is one of the very best players on tour and had a phenomenal clay season last year. Minnen is barely a WTA player. Kvitova rolls, but I’m passing on the spread.

Recap

Istanbul – Half unit – Flipkens/Bogdan over 2.5 sets +155 (2,55)

Istanbul – Half unit – Kozlova/Potapova over 2.5 sets +155 (2,55)

Istanbul – Full unit – Buzarnescu -3.5 games

Istanbul – Full unit – Arruabarrena +130 (2,30)

Stuttgart – Full unit – Minella +4.5 games

Stuttgart – Half unit – Minella +245 (3,45)

Stuttgart - Full unit - Garcia/Kontaveit over 21 games

Istanbul/Stuttgart – Full unit – Parlay Buzarnescu/Vekic/Kvitova +110 (2,10)