WTA Istanbul Day 4 & Stuttgart Day 3

Yesterday 1-5-2 -3.6 unit

Season to date 117-161-14 -30.52 Units Average Odds -103 Average Units/Bet 0.97

All of these lines come from a local book that I use. I will say this often, BE SURE TO CHECK THE PRICES AT ALL THE BOOKS YOU CAN ACCESS. One of the easiest ways to be a better bettor is get the best prices. I’m using lines from my local to try to teach this lesson and make sure what I post is widely available to those who read. I’m sure anything I post in here is offered at a better number somewhere, so be smart and check all your outs before placing your wager. The first number after each player’s name is their US odds with decimal odds in parenthesis. I’ll list total games for every match and spreads for matches with a spread greater than 2.5 games. Anything less than that and just take the moneyline, no need to risk a bagel or breadstick ruining your favorite spread.

As for staking, 1 unit = 1% of my bankroll. Do what you’d like, but I think is the best plan for the long term. Almost all bets will be 1 unit, sometimes less and rarely more. If it’s a favorite then the bet is to win the number of units posted. For example, 1 unit on a -130 (1,77) is a 1.3 unit bet to win 1 unit. If it’s an underdog, then the bet is to risk the units posted. For example, 1 unit on +200 (3,00) is 1 unit to win 2 units. Feel free to DM @_Noops with any questions.

Istanbul

Svetlana Kuznetsova +180 (2,80) vs Marketa Vondrousova -230 (1,43) Total Games 20.5 Spread +/- 4 games

Vondrousova continues her assault on the WTA. The young up & comer is 16-4 on the season. She’s also had a lot of success on clay. You can see the WTA level data above and Marketa was 16-1 at lower levels. Kuznetsova is playing her second event since last September as she recovers from an injury.  She was once one of the best players on tour, but is the clear underdog in this match. I think Vondrousova wins, but the pricing is just about right. Pass.

Petra Martic -335 (1,29) vs Ana Bogdan +265 (3,65) Total Games 19.5 Spread -/+ 5 games

Martic is the better player and that’s accurately reflected in the pricing. You can see her superior performances at the WTA level and she was 18-3 averaging +4.9 games at lower levels. Petra made the semifinals in Charleston and came back down a set in round 1 to a very good clay player in Tamara Zidansek. Bogdan has had a rough go of things before coming to Istanbul. She had won just 1 match since last November before starting qualifying here. So far Bogdan struggled with #199 Anna Bondar, beat up #741 Ipek Oz and got a retirement out of Kirsten Flipkens. Martic is the better player and in better form. This is a good parlay piece.

Kateryna Kozlova -115 (1,87) vs Kristina Mladenovic -115 (1,87) Total Games 21

Mladenovic’s numbers at the WTA level are much better, but Kozlova was 17-5 at lower levels and averaged +2.8 games. This should be a pretty tight match and I think the market has priced this properly. Pass.

Veronica Kudermetova -225 (1,44) vs Timea Babos +175 (2,75) Total Games 20.5 Spread -/+ 3.5 games

Babos played only 13 clay matches the last 2 seasons. She lost in the first round in Bogota and needed some withdraws to make the main draw here as a lucky loser. Kudermetova doesn’t have much experience at the WTA level on dirt, but she is only 22. She’s won 10 of her last 13 matches and is starting to fulfill her potential. She was 20-13 at lower levels averaging +1.7 games on clay. She’s going to win this match and this is another good parlay piece and I’ll put half a unit on the spread.

Stuttgart

Naomi Osaka -150 (1,66) vs Su Wei Hsieh +120 (2,20) Total Games 20.5

The number player in the world is here with a very cheap price. This is her first clay match since last year’s French Open. She hardly plays on clay and when she does it’s not very good. She is an incredibly talented player and her power should allow her to find some success on the dirt. This mostly comes down to what happens between her ears. Will she be confident and focused the entire match? Or will she be thinking about Stefanos Tsitsipas or her new rapper boyfriend? Hsieh is one of my favorite players on tour. She is incredibly smart and will grind you down, attacking any weakness she finds. I would love to take Hsieh, but not at this price. Osaka is the better talent. Pass.

Daria Kasatkina -110 (1,91) vs Donna Vekic -120 (1,83) Total Games 21.5

This should be a great match. Both are very good clay players as you can see above in their hold+break and average games data. Kasatkina hasn’t been good this year, but she had an impressive win in round over Elise Mertens who is one of the best clay players on tour. This pricing looks just about right. Pass.

Karolina Pliskova -135 (1,74) vs Victoria Azarenka +105 (2,05) Total Games 21.5

One of these women is great on clay. The other is Victoria Azarenka. This is a great price on Pliskova. It is her first clay match of the year, but I’m sure she practiced plenty on clay during her long break. She hasn’t played an tour event since Miami a month ago. She is going to be fresh and ready. Azarenka won her second match on clay since 2016 in round one. I love Pliskova here. 2 units on Pliskova.

Anastasija Sevastova -105 (1,95) vs Laura Siegemund -125 (1,80) Total Games 21.5

This should be a great match. Siegemund is a great clay player and is playing in front of a home crowd at an event where she made finals back to back years and won once. Sevastova’s clay numbers are as good as anyone’s. She’s struggled with her health, but if she’s feeling good she is one of the best on tour on the dirt. Pricing looks good here.

Kiki Bertens -200 (1,50) vs Belinda Bencic +160 (2,60) Total Games 20.5 Spread -/+ 3.5 games

I do not bet on Kiki Bertens matches. If I bet on her she loses. If I bet against her she wins. She is a phenomenal clay player and should win this match without much trouble. Bencic is having a great year, but she remains unproven on the dirt. Kiki might be a good parlay piece, but I don’t bet Kiki Bertens matches. Pass.

Andrea Petkovic +165 (2,65) vs Angelique Kerber -205 (1,48) Total Games 20.5 Spread +/- 4 games

Oh boy. So much “adorable” social media junk letting us know how much these 2 players from the same countries are like, #TotesBesties it’s hard to imagine they won’t just agree to end the match in a tie. Neither are great on clay, but Kerber is the better player in general. I’ll cheer to the people of Germany and hope this is an entertaining match. Pass.

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova +125 (2,25) vs Anett Kontaveit -155 (1,64) Total Games 21.5

We have yet another fun match here. Pavlyuchenkova is a solid player and has some decent results on clay. Kontaveit has been great on the dirt and could establish herself as a top clay player on tour this season. This is a cheap opportunity to bet on her before the market realizes how good she is. I have her as a much bigger favorite here. One unit on Kontaveit.

Recap

Istanbul – Half unit – Kudermetova -3.5 games

Istanbul – 1 unit – Parlay Martic/Kudermetova -110 (1,91)

Stuttgart – 2 units – Pliskova -135 (1,74)

Stuttgart – 1 unit – Kontaveit -155 (1,64)