Yesterday 3-1 +0.5 unit
Season to date 120-162-14 -30.02 Units Average Odds -103 Average Units/Bet 0.97
All of these lines come from a local book that I use. I will say this often, BE SURE TO CHECK THE PRICES AT ALL THE BOOKS YOU CAN ACCESS. One of the easiest ways to be a better bettor is get the best prices. I’m using lines from my local to try to teach this lesson and make sure what I post is widely available to those who read. I’m sure anything I post in here is offered at a better number somewhere, so be smart and check all your outs before placing your wager. The first number after each player’s name is their US odds with decimal odds in parenthesis. I’ll list total games for every match and spreads for matches with a spread greater than 2.5 games. Anything less than that and just take the moneyline, no need to risk a bagel or breadstick ruining your favorite spread.
As for staking, 1 unit = 1% of my bankroll. Do what you’d like, but I think is the best plan for the long term. Almost all bets will be 1 unit, sometimes less and rarely more. If it’s a favorite then the bet is to win the number of units posted. For example, 1 unit on a -130 (1,77) is a 1.3 unit bet to win 1 unit. If it’s an underdog, then the bet is to risk the units posted. For example, 1 unit on +200 (3,00) is 1 unit to win 2 units. Feel free to DM @_Noops with any questions.
Lara Arruabarrena +340 (4,40) vs Marketa Vondrousova -430 (1,23) Total Games 19.5 +/- 5.5 games
Vondrousova continues to be awesome and almost certainly deserves the pricing you see. She’s now 17-4 on the year and has great numbers on clay. She’s played 2 solid players here and smoked them both. Arruabarrena is enjoying her showing at non-Bogota clay event since 2015. Most of what see above are her performances in Colombia. She is outclassed her in just about every way. It’s an expensive line, but feel free to parlay the Vondrousova ML with anything and be sure to use her in daily fantasy.
Barbora Strycova -110 (1,91) vs Elena Rybakina -120 (1,83) Total Games 21
This is kind of a funny match. Strycova isn’t the best clay player, but she fought her way through 2 tough 2 set matches here. This is the furthest Rybakina has ever made it in a WTA clay event. I can make a case for either to win this match. I lean towards the over, but 21 games and over 2.5 sets pricing looks about right. Pass.
Petra Martic -135 (1,74) vs Kristina Mladenovic +105 (2,05) Total Games 21
This price feels like an overreaction to what happened the round prior. Mladenovic smoked Kateryna Kozlova 1 & 2. Kozlova is a decent clay player, but she’s no superstar. Martic dropped the first set to Ana Bogdan and then struggled to win the 2nd and eventually the match. Bogdan isn’t great either, but she has been playing some, for her, great tennis lately. I’m not sure that dictates such a close price. Martic was not only better at the WTA level last year, she was 18-3 averaging +4.9 games at lower levels. I’m putting a full unit on Martic.
Veronica Kudermetova -140 (1,71) vs Margarita Gasparyan +110 (2,10) Total Games 21.5
Before this event, Margarita Gasparyan had not played in a clay match, WTA or otherwise, since 2016. She survived several set points to beat Johanna Larsson in 3 sets. She lost the first to Buzarnescus 6-1, but survived several match points to somehow win in 3 sets. Nothing exciting above from Kudermetova, but she was 20-13 at lower levels and has yet to lose a set here including 2 qualifying matches. She’s 11-3 in her last 14 matches and in great form. Gasparyan isn’t going to get lucky again and survive all those break points. Full unit on Kudermetova.
Naomi Osaka -145 (1,68) vs Donna Vekic +115 (2,15) Total Games 21
This probably about right. Part of me really wants to be the big serving, #1 player in the world at about as cheap of a price as you’ll get on her these days. Part of me LOVEs going against the mercurial player with someone who’s shown aptitude for the dirt. It should be a very competitive match, but only fools and silly hearts bet the over in Osaka matches. Pass.
Victoria Azarenka +100 (2,00) vs Anett Kontaveit -130 (1,76) Total Games 21.5
My new favorite player on clay meets a big name that got a lucky withdrawal and a lucky meltdown to make it this far. Kontaveit is great on clay. I find she’s too expensive on hard court, but on the dirt she is a great value at this price. Azarenka was supposed to play Muguruza in round one, but thanks to a withdraw got to play Vera Zvonareva. In round 2, she faced Karolina Pliskova who just melted after winning the first set in one of her strangest performances to date. Victoria is not getting off easy here. I love this spot for Kontaveit. 2 units on Kontaveit
Anastasija Sevastova +175 (2,75) vs Petra Kvitova -215 (1,46) Total Games 21.5 Spread +/- 3.5 games
I wonder if we get just the slightest letdown from Kvitova. She’s been focused on getting to #1, but thanks to Osaka’s win over Hsieh that’s no longer possible this week. As good as Sevastova’s numbers are, Kvitova is the better player on this surface and in general. That said, Sevastova’s numbers are still very good and I think there is a chance she can steal a set here. Over 2.5 sets is +180 (2,80) at Bovada. Based on the price on the total and historical averages, this total should be closer to +140 (2,40) which would give us a sizeable edge at 18%. Kvitova can be a dominating force, so just a half a unit on over 2.5 sets.
Kiki Bertens -130 (1,76) vs Angelique Kerber +100 (2,00) Total Games 21
I do not bet on Kiki Bertens matches. If I bet on her she loses. If I bet against her she wins. She is a great clay player and this is a very cheap price for someone of her talent. Kerber does have homecourt advantage and won this event back to back in 2015 & 2016. I will pass, because I do not bet on Kiki Bertens matches.
Istanbul – 1 unit – Martic -135 (1,74)
Istanbul – 1 unit – Kudermetova -140 (1,71)
Stuttgart – 2 units – Kontaveit -130 (1,76)
Stuttgart - .5 unit – Over 2.5 sets Sevastova/Kvitova +180 (2,80)