WTA Lugano & Bogota Day 1

Yesterday 0-2 -1.60 units

Season to date 103-143-11 -26.70 Units Average Odds -103 Average Units/Bet 0.97

All of these lines come from a local book that I use. I will say this often, BE SURE TO CHECK THE PRICES AT ALL THE BOOKS YOU CAN ACCESS. One of the easiest ways to be a better bettor is get the best prices. I’m using lines from my local to try to teach this lesson and make sure what I post is widely available to those who read. I’m sure anything I post in here is offered at a better number somewhere, so be smart and check all your outs before placing your wager. The first number after each player’s name is their US odds with decimal odds in parenthesis. I’ll list total games for every match and spreads for matches with a spread greater than 2.5 games. Anything less than that and just take the moneyline, no need to risk a bagel or breadstick ruining your favorite spread.

As for staking, 1 unit = 1% of my bankroll. Do what you’d like, but I think is the best plan for the long term. Almost all bets will be 1 unit, sometimes less and rarely more. If it’s a favorite then the bet is to win the number of units posted. For example, 1 unit on a -130 (1,77) is a 1.3 unit bet to win 1 unit. If it’s an underdog, then the bet is to risk the units posted. For example, 1 unit on +200 (3,00) is 1 unit to win 2 units. Feel free to DM @_Noops with any questions.

Lugano

Mona Barthel -120 (1,83) vs Sorana Cirstea +100 (2,00) Total Games 21.5

Numbers last year look pretty close. Neither has had any real success this season. Nothing material in the head to head. Pass.

Tereza Smitkova +195 (2,95) vs Alison Van Uytvanck -245 (1,40) Total Games 20.5 Spread +/- 4 games

Two players I would love to fade on clay face off here. The numbers above are rough. AVU is the favorite because of her big, accurate serve. She should be able to hold serve and get a break or two on the way to a fairly easy win. The moneyline is expensive and the spread is too. Pass.

Svetlana Kuznetsova +135 (2,35) vs Ekaterina Alexandrova -170 (1,58) Total Games 21 Spread +/- 3 games

I think the wrong woman is favored. The numbers above are greatly in her favor. I would love to bet on her, but she hasn’t played a match since September of last year. This is not Alexandrova’s preferred surface and she has been carrying a knee injury intermittently this year. I would need some form out of Kuznetsova to jump on this.

Viktorija Golubic -225 (1,44) vs Arantxa Rus +180 (2,80) Total Games 20.5 Spread -/+ 4 games

Golubic had a nice run in Indian Wells and won a 100K event, but clay is not her surface. Rough numbers above and nothing much more than qualifying wins last season. Rus, on the other hand, likes the clay. She had some nice performances in WTA matches and was 25-13 in qualifiers, challengers & ITF events. I like her chances in this match. Full unit +4 games and half a unit +180 (2,80).

Timea Bacsinszky -335 (1,29) vs Tamara Korspatch +260 (3,60) Total Games 20 Spread -/+ 5 games

2 clay players that I wish were playing other people. Bacsinszky is the deserved favorite. If Korspatch had played any decent tennis the last month or so I would be intrigued by her, but I’m going to pass.

Bogota

Anna Schmiedlova -180 vs Ysaline Bonaventure +145 Total Games 21 Spread -/+ 3 games

The defending champion has an easy first round matchup against a player that would much rather be inside and on hard courts. I played Bonaventure a lot on hards, but I won’t be playing her at all during the clay season. She hardly plays on the surface and is very poor when she does. Schmiedlova had a good year on clay last season and should be a bigger favorite than this. I’m going to parlay her with someone else.

Jasmine Paolini -140 vs Francesca Di Lorenzo +110 Total Games 21.5

Paolini actually won an ITF clay event this year and has almost 15 clay matches under her belts so no need for her to get acclimated. Di Lorenzo looked good in the challenger event at Indian Wells and qualified for Charleston last week. Although both seem to have some form on clay already, I’m not going to pay much attention to this match. Paolini deserves to be the small favorite. Pass.

Conny Perrin -215 vs Maria Osorio Serrano +165 Total Games 21 Spread -/+ 3.5 games

Another match with not much to say. Neither woman is a WTA player yet. Given that, I’m surprised to see Perrin as such a big favorite. Serrano is a local wild card and mostly plays ITF and Challenger events. Perrin has had some success at the WTA level, albeit on other surfaces. I would love to grab that price going against Conny, but not with Serrano. Pass.

Elitsa Kostova +120 vs Varvara Lepchenko -180 Total Games 21 Spread +/- 3 games

Kostova has had some better performances on clay than Lepchenko, but she’s used to a much lower level of competition. She occasionally plays smaller WTA events, but is mostly a Challenger level player. Lepchenko certainly isn’t a world beater, but she should be the better player in this match. That line is mostly likely correct. Pass.

Beatriz Haddad Maia +125 vs Laura Siegemund -155 Total Games 21

I wish Hadda Maia had gone into any other qualifying spot, but here she is. She had a rough WTA season on clay last year, but had an impressive hold+break of 109 in 2017. Also, if I look at he matches below the WTA level she was 13-2 with average games of +5. Very impressive numbers, but against an average rank of 155. Siegemund is a good clay player and maintained a good hold+break last year against better players. This is a cheap price on Siegemund and the a great parlay partner for Schmiedlova.

Sabine Lisicki +400 vs Amanda Anisimova -600 Total Games 20 Spread +/- 5 games

Anisimova should roll here. As you can see above, I have not data on either player on clay at the WTA level for the last 2 years. Anisimova was 12-3 during that time at lower levels, she’s better player and she’s younger and getting better with each match. Lisicki is 30 years old and has seen her rank drop from top 50 in 2016 all the way to #298. Pass.

Recap

Lugano - Full unit Rus +4 games

Lugano - Half unit Rus +180 (2,80)

Bogota – Full unit parlay Schmiedlova/Siegemund +155 (2,55)