WTA Lugano & Bogota Day 2

Yesterday 1-2 -0.50 units

Season to date 104-145-11 -27.20 Units Average Odds -103 Average Units/Bet 0.97

All of these lines come from a local book that I use. I will say this often, BE SURE TO CHECK THE PRICES AT ALL THE BOOKS YOU CAN ACCESS. One of the easiest ways to be a better bettor is get the best prices. I’m using lines from my local to try to teach this lesson and make sure what I post is widely available to those who read. I’m sure anything I post in here is offered at a better number somewhere, so be smart and check all your outs before placing your wager. The first number after each player’s name is their US odds with decimal odds in parenthesis. I’ll list total games for every match and spreads for matches with a spread greater than 2.5 games. Anything less than that and just take the moneyline, no need to risk a bagel or breadstick ruining your favorite spread.

As for staking, 1 unit = 1% of my bankroll. Do what you’d like, but I think is the best plan for the long term. Almost all bets will be 1 unit, sometimes less and rarely more. If it’s a favorite then the bet is to win the number of units posted. For example, 1 unit on a -130 (1,77) is a 1.3 unit bet to win 1 unit. If it’s an underdog, then the bet is to risk the units posted. For example, 1 unit on +200 (3,00) is 1 unit to win 2 units. Feel free to DM @_Noops with any questions.

Lugano

Polona Hercog +160 (2,60) vs Carla Suarez Navarro -200 (1,50) Total Games 20.5 Spread +/- 3.5 games

I have an outright ticket on CSN at 9-1 and this match is my biggest concern. Despite a down year, she is a great clay player and a deserving favorite in this match. Hercog loves the clay, it’s her best surface. Any head to head matches are too old to consider and neither brings in any good form. I expect CSN to be able to hold serve and move well enough to beat Hercog, but the pricing looks solid. Pass.

Fiona Ferro -115 (1,87) vs Mandy Minella -115 (1,87) Total Games 21

We’ve got 2 top notch ITF/Challenger level clay players here. Ferro was 41-22 on clay the last 2 years. She won 2 titles in 2018. Minella was 21-5 in that same period and also had 2 titles on clay last season. This should be very competitive. Pass.

Ylena In Albon +175 (2,75) vs Kristyna Pliskova -220 (1,45) Total Games 21.5 Spread +/- 3.5 games

Albon hasn’t played a WTA level event since this same tournament last year. She lose 6-1 7-5 in round 1 of qualifiers. Pliskova the Lesser is not great by any means, but she’s in a different tier than Albon. Pricing looks good. Pass.

Pauline Parmentier +125 (2,25) vs Stefanie Voegele -160 (1,62) Total Games 21

The numbers above would lead me to be on Parmentier. Better and more experience at the WTA level. Voegele has had some success at lower levels, but in general she plays a lower average ranking. Voegele is in her home country and made the semifinals in this event last year. I’ll forego the numbers and pass.

Jill Belen Teichmann +100 (2,00) vs Veronika Kudermetova -125 (1,80) Total Games 21

There’s nothing of substance at the WTA level clay experience for either lady. Both have been ok at the ITF/Challenger level playing against sub 250 ranked talent. Kudermetova won on hards in Guadalajara, then lose in round 1 of qualifiers in Miami, and round one in Charleston. Teichmann is coming off 2 good weeks on clay in Italy, a title win and semifinal, AND she has home court advantage here. Kudermetova is a solid player, so just a small wager on Teichmann, half unit.

Iga Swiatek -400 (1,25) vs Katarina Zavatska +275 (3,75) Total Games 20 Spread -/+ 4.5 games

Another match without much clay data at the WTA level. Swiatek is young up and comer that could be a very exciting player on tour someday. She’s only 18, but has acquitted herself very well. Zavatska is another nice, young player but has yet to move up the WTA level in any substantial way. Although she seems overpriced, Swiatek deserves to be the favorite. Pass.

Viktoria Kuzmova -275 (1,36) vs Giulia Monticone +200 (3,00) Total Games 21 Spread -/+ 3.5 games

Take the last preview, replace “Swiatek” with “Kuzmova,” and pretend Zavastka is an older player on the way out. Somehow you still get a cheaper price. Kuzmova should be a nice parlay piece if I can find a partner.

Evgeniya Rodina +240 (3,40) vs Clara Tauson -340 (1,29) Total Games 20.5 Spread +/- 4.5 games

Rodina is the #69 ranked played in the world and is a gigantic underdog to a 17 year old playing her first WTA event. Tauson blew away her opponents in qualifying and is another in the seemingly endless pile of promising young players on tour. I’m going to sit back watch. Pass.

Reka-Luca Jani +150 (2,50) vs Vera Lapko -200 (1,50) Total Games 21.5 Spread +/- 3.5 games

Lapko has been bad this year. She limps in her first clay tournament, but should get some reprieve as this is a good surface for her. Made the semifinal here last year which kicked off a good 2 months of tennis from her. Jani has one win over the top 100 since last season and you have to go back 7 more years to find her next win. Kuzmova might be another parlay piece.

Belinda Bencic -550 (1,18) vs Antonia Lottner +350 (4,50) Total Games 19.5 Spread -/+ 5.5 games

Bencic is a huge favorite. She should probably be a huge favorite. She’s a great player and had the best 2 weeks of tennis almost anyone has ever had. That said, she does not have a lot of experience or success on clay. I think there will be some great opportunities to bet against her in the upcoming weeks. This is not one of them. Pass.

Bogota

Jelena Ostapenko -460 (1,21) vs Kristie Ahn +360 (4,60) Total Games 19 Spread -/+ 5.5 games

Ostapenko should be at home here on her favorite surface. She ran into the Madison Keys train in Charleston but played some nice tennis before getting there. She’s never played here before, but it’s a short flight from South Carolina and as mentioned, she loves the red dirt. Ahn’s no slouch herself on clay, but nowhere near Ostapenko’s level. She’s only every played 1 match against a top 50 opponent. Ostapenko should win comfortably, but I have no interest in drinking that much juice on the moneyline or laying that many games. Pass.

Chloe Paquet +155 (2,55) vs Ana Bogdan -185 (1,54) Total Games 20.5 Spread +/- 3.5 games

Yuck. Paquet was 28-19 with average games of -0.5 against an average rank of 338 since 2017. She struggled to hang with bad players on the surface for 2 years. Bogdan has only won TWO sets since November. Both sets were in different matches. Pass.

Christina McHale +165 (2,65) vs Sara Sorribes Tormo -195 (1,51) Total Games 20.5 Spread +/- 3.5 games

Tormo is a great parlay piece. She’s comfortable on the dirt and is undefeated in Bogota when playing anyone not names “Lara Arruabarrena.” McHale plays about 10 clay matches a season and wins 1 or 2. This will not be one of those matches. I’ll parlay the Tormo moneyline with something and put half a unit on -3.5 games.

Tamara Zidansek -255 (1,39) vs Irina Khromacheva +205 (3,05) Total Games 20 Spread -/+ 4.5 games

Both are good clay players and this match should be fun to watch. At first I was surprised to see Zidansek favored by so much, but her numbers really are a step above Khromacheva’s. Looking above, you can see Irina’s nice run in Gstaad, but look at the average rank faced. Looking back the last 2 years at lower levels, Zidansek is 38-9, +3.4 games on average, versus 17-10, +.8 games on average. The moneyline looks about right and I have no interest in laying the 4.5 games. Pass.

Kiroko Kuwata +285 (3,85) vs Sachia Vikery -365 (1,27) Total Games 19.5 Spread +/- 5 games

Kuwata is not very good and that’s in a career of playing mostly women who are not very good. I really wanted to fade Vickery here, but I guess I’ll have to wait until next round. Pass.

Timea Babos +155 (2,55) vs Lara Arruabarrena -185 (1,54) Total Games 21 +/- 3.5 games

Arruabarrena LOVES it in Bogota. She won in 2012, made the finals 2 other times and has never lost before the quarterfinals at this event. Babos is hard court player that hasn’t played much clay the 2 years and the little she did play was very poor. She is 3-10 on the surface since 2017. Same plan as Tormo here. Parlay Arruabarrena and put half a unit on -3.5 games.

Shelby Rogers -145 (1,68) vs Astra Sharma +115 (2,15) Total Games 21.5

This one is hard to handicap. Shelby Rogers was a solid player before getting hurt and has only played 4 matches since 2017. I don’t have anything nice to say about Sharma, but she has been playing tennis and winning matches. The line tells me that the market isn’t sure what to do here either. Pass.

Emiliana Arango +420 (5,20) vs Bibiane Schoofs -620 (1,16) Total Games 18.5 Spread +/- 6 games

We have another home court advantage spot for a HUGE underdog. Arango was a wild card at this event last year and made it all the way to the quarterfinals. At lower levels, she didn’t play often, but was 9-6 on clay with average games of +2.5. Surely Schoofs must be a good clay player to deserve such an expensive price? Her history would lead you to believe the opposite. This is first time Schoofs has ever qualified for a WTA level event on clay. She’s 31 years old and this is her first WTA level clay event. She is 24-22 on clay at lower levels with an average game of +.3. Those are not the results you would expect from someone who has an implied probability of 86% to win the match. I love Arango in this spot. 1.5 units on +6 games and half a unit on the moneyline.

Irina Bara -105 (1,95) vs Sara Errani -125 (1,80) Total Games 21

Looking above, you’d expect Errani to be a much bigger favorite, but she’s an older player on the way out I think. She’s struggled this season against inferior talent. I don’t have much interest in Bara either. Pass.

Magda Linette -135 (1,74) vs Aliona Bolsova +100 (2,00) Total Games 21

Same handicap as the last match, except Linette isn’t old. Pass.

Recap

Lugano - Half unit Teichmann +100 (2,00)

Bogota – Half unit Tormo -3.5 games

Bogota – Half unit Arruabarrena -3.5 games

Bogota – 1.5 units Arango +6 games

Bogota - .5 units Arango +420 (5,20)

Bogota – Full unit parlay Tormo/Arruabarrena +130 (2