WTA Lugano & Bogota Day 3

Yesterday 3-1-1 units +1.8 units

Season to date 107-146-12 -25.40 Units Average Odds -103 Average Units/Bet 0.97

All of these lines come from a local book that I use. I will say this often, BE SURE TO CHECK THE PRICES AT ALL THE BOOKS YOU CAN ACCESS. One of the easiest ways to be a better bettor is get the best prices. I’m using lines from my local to try to teach this lesson and make sure what I post is widely available to those who read. I’m sure anything I post in here is offered at a better number somewhere, so be smart and check all your outs before placing your wager. The first number after each player’s name is their US odds with decimal odds in parenthesis. I’ll list total games for every match and spreads for matches with a spread greater than 2.5 games. Anything less than that and just take the moneyline, no need to risk a bagel or breadstick ruining your favorite spread.

As for staking, 1 unit = 1% of my bankroll. Do what you’d like, but I think is the best plan for the long term. Almost all bets will be 1 unit, sometimes less and rarely more. If it’s a favorite then the bet is to win the number of units posted. For example, 1 unit on a -130 (1,77) is a 1.3 unit bet to win 1 unit. If it’s an underdog, then the bet is to risk the units posted. For example, 1 unit on +200 (3,00) is 1 unit to win 2 units. Feel free to DM @_Noops with any questions.

Lugano

POSTED YESTERDAY Jill Belen Teichmann +100 (2,00) vs Veronika Kudermetova -125 (1,80) Total Games 21

There’s nothing of substance at the WTA level clay experience for either lady. Both have been ok at the ITF/Challenger level playing against sub 250 ranked talent. Kudermetova won on hards in Guadalajara, then lose in round 1 of qualifiers in Miami, and round one in Charleston. Teichmann is coming off 2 good weeks on clay in Italy, a title win and semifinal, AND she has home court advantage here. Kudermetova is a solid player, so just a small wager on Teichmann, half unit.

Timea Bacsinszky -175 vs Svetlana Kuznetsova +145 Total Games 20.5 Spread -/+ 3 games

Kuznetsova is a nice clay player and made a fantastic comeback in round 1, but this is Bacsinzsky’s match to lose. She loves that the dirt and could actually win this event now that Bencic has been knocked out of the field. All these numbers look right to me. Pass.

Stefanie Voegele -110 vs Viktorija Golubic -120 Total Games 20.5

Neither player spends a lot of time on clay or has many good performances on the surface. Voegele did look dominant in her first round match against Parmentier, but Golubic has been in good form and survived a match against a good clay player in round 1. I’m not sure who wins and the total looks fine, maybe half a game too low, but fine. Pass.

Fiona Ferro +115 vs Alison Van Uytvanck -145 Total Games 20.5

AVU is not built for clay. Her movement is very poor and she rarely wins longs rallies. Her height is an asset because she maintain her good serve, but overall she is not a good clay player. I would love to go against her in this spot. Unfortunately Ferro is not worth my money. As you can see above she has very little experience at a WTA level and those matches went very poorly. She’s won a lot of matches at lower levels, but against players ranked in the 300+ range. Pass.

Sorana Cirstea +145 vs Polona Hercog -175 Total Games 20.5 Spread +/- 3 games

Hercog came back down a set to knock out my outright pick, Carla Suarez Navarro. CSN has looked rough this year, but that’s an impressive win. I live in the United States, a backwards country with arcane gambling laws, so I don’t have anyway to access outright markets mid tournament. If I could, I would definitely grab some Hercog. She’s the deserving favorite and likely a good parlay piece. Hopefully I find a partner.

Bogota

POSTED YESTERDAY Tamara Zidansek -255 (1,39) vs Irina Khromacheva +205 (3,05) Total Games 20 Spread -/+ 4.5 games

Both are good clay players and this match should be fun to watch. At first I was surprised to see Zidansek favored by so much, but her numbers really are a step above Khromacheva’s. Looking above, you can see Irina’s nice run in Gstaad, but look at the average rank faced. Looking back the last 2 years at lower levels, Zidansek is 38-9, +3.4 games on average, versus 17-10, +.8 games on average. The moneyline looks about right and I have no interest in laying the 4.5 games. Pass.

Varvara Lepchenko +240 vs Amanda Anisimova -300 Total Games 20 +/- 4.5 games

Anisimova did not look good in her first round match against Lisicki, but it was her first clay match in over a year. She made the finals in the last 3 clay tournaments she entered, but those were in 2017. She is a very good young player and should be successful in the WTA. Lepchenko doesn’t play often on clay and doesn’t really have much success on the surface. She’s usually tough out and this might be a good spot for an over, but Anisimova could roll. Pass.

Anna Schmiedlova +140 vs Beatriz Haddad Maia -170 Total Games 20.5 +/- 3.5 games

We have 2 good clay players, but I think the wrong one is favored. Both have hold+break rates of 108 combining WTA & lower levels the past year. Schmiedlova won this event last season so the she’s clearly fine with the conditions. Yesterday was Haddad Maia’s one of 2 wins in Bogota against a non-qualifier or wild card. She has never made it past the second round. I think I could make a case Schmiedlova should be favored, but at the very least this should be close to even. Full unit on Schmiedlova.

POSTED YESTERDAY Kiroko Kuwata +285 (3,85) vs Sachia Vikery -365 (1,27) Total Games 19.5 Spread +/- 5 games

Kuwata is not very good and that’s in a career of playing mostly women who are not very good. I really wanted to fade Vickery here, but I guess I’ll have to wait until next round. Pass.

Ana Bogdan +170 (2,70) vs Sara Sorribes Tormo -220 (1.45) Total Games 20.5 Spread +/- 4 games

Ana Bogdan won a match! This was her first win since November of last year in Limoges. Tormo continued her winning streak in Bogota against players not names “Lara Arruabarrena.” The numbers above could be construed as close, but Toromo has a better average rank faced and going to lower levels, she’s been much more successful on clay. She should win this match without much problem at all. This is a great parlay. The total is probably about half a game too high, but I’ll pass on that.

Kristie Ahn -220 (1,45) vs Maria Osorio Serrano +170 (2,70) Total Games 21 Spread -/+ 4 games

Ahn made an incredible comeback to beat Ostapenko in 3 sets last night. It was an incredible match and Ostapenko is easily the best player Ahn has ever beaten. Now, all of sudden, she’s a big favorite over the local wildcard who won her first round match 4 & 4. Although Ahn is only ranked #205, this would be the relatively high ranking opponent Serrano. Before yesterday’s match, she hadn’t faced someone in the top 200 since last May and I assume that’s driving some of the price. Serrano is the local wildcard though and I think homecourt advantage matters. I’d love to back Serrano here, but not at that number. Pass.

Recap

POSTED YESETRDAY Lugano - Half unit Teichmann +100 (2,00)

Bogota – Schmiedlova +140 (2,40)

Lugano/Bogota – Parlay Hercog/Tormo +125 (2,25)