WTA Lugano & Bogota Day 4

Yesterday 1-2 units -0.25 units

Season to date 108-148-12 -25.65 Units Average Odds -103 Average Units/Bet 0.97

All of these lines come from a local book that I use. I will say this often, BE SURE TO CHECK THE PRICES AT ALL THE BOOKS YOU CAN ACCESS. One of the easiest ways to be a better bettor is get the best prices. I’m using lines from my local to try to teach this lesson and make sure what I post is widely available to those who read. I’m sure anything I post in here is offered at a better number somewhere, so be smart and check all your outs before placing your wager. The first number after each player’s name is their US odds with decimal odds in parenthesis. I’ll list total games for every match and spreads for matches with a spread greater than 2.5 games. Anything less than that and just take the moneyline, no need to risk a bagel or breadstick ruining your favorite spread.

As for staking, 1 unit = 1% of my bankroll. Do what you’d like, but I think is the best plan for the long term. Almost all bets will be 1 unit, sometimes less and rarely more. If it’s a favorite then the bet is to win the number of units posted. For example, 1 unit on a -130 (1,77) is a 1.3 unit bet to win 1 unit. If it’s an underdog, then the bet is to risk the units posted. For example, 1 unit on +200 (3,00) is 1 unit to win 2 units. Feel free to DM @_Noops with any questions.

Lugano

Antonia Lottner -120 (1,83) vs Kristyna Pliskova -110 (1,91) Total Games 21.5

Lottner had the best win of career defeating Belinda Bencic in round 1 and in 2 sets no less. Now she’s lined evenly with Pliskova the Lesser. I have to go all the way back to 2016 to find the last time Lottner made it past round 2 in a clay tournament. Pliskova the Lesser is not a great player by any means. She is used to playing a much higher quality of player. Even with that higher level of competition her numbers are much better. +3.4 games on average at the ITF/Challenger level vs only +.87 for Lottner. I like Pliskova, but I don’t love it. Half a unit on Pliskova.

Timea Bacsinszky -215 (1,46) vs Svetlana Kuznetsova +175 (2,75) Total Games 20.5 Spread -/+ 4 games

Kuznetsova is a nice clay player and made a fantastic comeback in round 1, but this is Bacsinzsky’s match to lose. She loves that the dirt and could actually win this event now that Bencic has been knocked out of the field. All these numbers look right to me. Pass.

Viktoria Kuzmova +120 (2,20) vs Iga Swiatek -150 (1,67) Total Games 21

Swiatek is a brilliant young player who loves the dirt. She’s 35-6 the last 2 years on the surface with an average game of +5.8. That’s insane. Kuzmova is very good, but this is not her best surface. She has a great serve that could sustain her, but Swiatek should win this match. Pricing looks good. Pass.

Evgeniya Rodina +150 (2,50) vs Vera Lapko -180 (1,55) Total Games 20.5 Spread +/- 3 games

The battle for arguably the most pitiful season to date is on! Rodina is 2-10 and Lapko is 2-7. Lapko does love the dirt thought. She’s 20-6 at lover levels with an average games of +2.77. Rodina is 9-7 with average games of -.5. Lapko should be the favorite and should win this match. She’s a good parlay piece.

Rebecca Peterson -160 (1,62) vs Vernonica Kudermetova +130 (2,30) Total Games 21

I’m struggling to figure out why Kudermetova is the underdog here. Peterson won a lower level event last year, but that was really all she did on clay. She hasn’t played any good tennis this season. She’s 2-5 in her last 7 matches. Kudermetova won a title a few weeks ago and had a solid clay season herself last year. This is another bet I like but don’t love. Kudermetova is just getting better with each match and I think she can win this match. Half unit on Kudermetova.

Bogota

Tamara Zidansek -235 (1,42) vs Sachia Vickery +185 (2,85) Total Games 20.5 Spread -/+ 4 games

One of these woman is a good player and the other is Sachia Vickery. Vickery has played 14 clay matches since 2017. She is 4-10 in those matches. Sachia has had knee problems for over a year now and I’m sure the sliding around on clay is murder for those knees. Zidansek was 10-4 at the WTA level and 38-9 at lower levels. She had a hold+break of 116 in those 14 WTA matches. She is and should be the clear favorite and outclasses Vickery in almost every way on this surface. Zidansek is a great parlay piece and I’ll even put half a unit on -4 games.

Jasmine Paolini +120 (2,20) v Lara Arruabarrena -150 (1,67) Total Games 20.5 Spread +/- 3 games

Paolini made a comeback win in round 1 after dropping her first set to Di Lorenzo. She’s played a lot on clay already this season as this is her 5th clay event so far and even won a lower level event. During those tournaments she faced a competition with an average rank in the high 300s. This is not the case today. Arruabarrena is a solid clay player at the WTA level, but at this event she takes her game up a level. She is 21-5 on these courts having won the event once and made the finals twice. She’s never been knocked out before the quarterfinals. She wins this match and will be my parlay partner for Zidansek with a half unit on -3 as well.

Magda Linette -145 (1,69) vs Astra Sharma +116 (2,16) Total Games 21

The numbers above and at lower levels support this line. Linette isn’t great, but she is a WTA level clay player. Sharma was 20-3 with a +4.1 averages games, but it was against an average rank faced of 707. Linetter hasn’t done much of anything of note since making the final in Bol last season. Sharma won a lower level event, qualified for Charleston and played 2 tough 3 setters all in the last 40 days. I was leaning towards Sharma, but I need a better price and this is a better price than it opened. The market has taken Linette money and this line is about 20 cents more expensive. Congratulations to all those who achieved closing line value. Pass.

Bibiane Schoofs -115 (1,87) vs Sara Errani -115 (1,87) Total Games 21

I don’t understand why the market respects Schoofs so much on clay. She’s 30 years old and this is her first WTA level main draw appearance on the red dirt. At lower levels she was an underwhelming 24-22 with an average games of +.3. Errani has been a good clay player at the WTA level the 2 years. She only played 6 matches at lower levels, but was 6-1 in those matches with an average games of +6.1. Why is this lined so closely? Normally I’d worry about Errani’s age, but she’s only 1 year older than Schoofs and she even has some positive history here having made the quarterfinals twice. Give me Errani for a full unit.

Recap

Lugano – Half unit Pliskova -110 (1,91)

Lugano – Half unit Kudermetova +130 (2,30)

Bogota – Half unit Zidansek -4 games

Bogota – Half unit Arruabarrena -3 games

Bogota – Full unit parlay Zidansek/Arruabarrena +135 (2,35)

Bogota – Full unit Errani -115 (1,87)