WTA Lugano & Bogota Day 5

Yesterday 6-0 units +4.35 units

Season to date 114-148-12 -21.30 Units Average Odds -103 Average Units/Bet 0.97

All of these lines come from a local book that I use. I will say this often, BE SURE TO CHECK THE PRICES AT ALL THE BOOKS YOU CAN ACCESS. One of the easiest ways to be a better bettor is get the best prices. I’m using lines from my local to try to teach this lesson and make sure what I post is widely available to those who read. I’m sure anything I post in here is offered at a better number somewhere, so be smart and check all your outs before placing your wager. The first number after each player’s name is their US odds with decimal odds in parenthesis. I’ll list total games for every match and spreads for matches with a spread greater than 2.5 games. Anything less than that and just take the moneyline, no need to risk a bagel or breadstick ruining your favorite spread.

As for staking, 1 unit = 1% of my bankroll. Do what you’d like, but I think is the best plan for the long term. Almost all bets will be 1 unit, sometimes less and rarely more. If it’s a favorite then the bet is to win the number of units posted. For example, 1 unit on a -130 (1,77) is a 1.3 unit bet to win 1 unit. If it’s an underdog, then the bet is to risk the units posted. For example, 1 unit on +200 (3,00) is 1 unit to win 2 units. Feel free to DM @_Noops with any questions.

Lugano

Kristyna Pliskova +110 (2,10) vs Svetlana Kuznetsova -140 (1,71) Total Games 21.5

Kuznetsova is now undefeated since September of last year. The only problem is that she has only played 2 matches in that time and both in this event. Before her injury hiatus, she was one of the better players on tour. She was #8 in 2017 and #41 in her last match before this season. She seems to still have some of that talent left, but it’s awfully hard to trust someone who hasn’t played in so long. Pliskova the Lesser is fine. She’s just fine. She doesn’t do much, if anything, great, but she is a mainstay of top 100 and a solid player. I have no interest in either player, but this looks ripe for an over. Both average a total games above the 21.5 you see in the market. I hate going over 21.5. 77.4% of matches that go over 21.5 game also go over 2.5 sets which would mean the line for over 2.5 sets should +137 (2,37). The line is +145. All prices are just about right. Pass.

Iga Swiatek -220 (1,45) vs Vera Lapko +170 (2,70) Total Games 21 Spread -/+ 3.5 games

Swiatek is one of the very best young players in the game. She will be 18 years old at the end of may. In the last 2 years she is 35-6 with an average games of +5.8 at the Challenger/ITF level at ages 16 and 17. That is incredibly impressive. She has blitzed all the competition she’s faced. Yesterday she beat #46, Viktoria Kuzmova. This is the highest ranked player she has ever beaten. Before yesterday she had never beaten someone in the top 75. Lapko has been rough this year, but she likes the dirt. She’s been at her best this season during the first 2 matches of this event. I’m intrigued by Lapko against the much younger player, but I’m not sure I can do it at that price. +170 is cheap, but not cheap enough and I feel the same about 3.5 games. I’d want +190 and +4 games. The total looks just about right as well. Pass.

Stefanie Voegele -180 (1,55) vs Fiona Ferro +150 (2,50) Total Games 21.5 Spread -/+ 3 games

Voegele doesn’t play a lot on clay, but she’s solid when she does. Despite the numbers above, she was 9-2 at lower levels with an average games of +3.8. Ferro has a lot of clay experience, 41-22 at lower levels, but only +2.7 games on average against an average rank of 345. Voegele is rightly the favorite, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Ferro wins. No value either way though. The total looks fine too. Pass.

Veronica Kudermetova +110 (2,10) vs Polona Hercog -140 (1,71) Total Games 21.5

If you look above, Hercog is a WTA level clay player and Kudermetova has yet to prove that. Clay is Hercog’s favorite surface. She was 10-5 with a hold+break of 106 at the WTA level last season. The last 2 years she is 42-9 with an average games of +4.8. Those are great numbers. Kudermetova is probably better on hards but was an admirable 20-13 at lower levels on clay. This is cheap price on Hercog. Full unit on Polona.

Bogota

Maria Osortio Serrano +515 (6,15) vs Amanda Ansimova -765 (1,13) Total Games 18.5 Spread +/- 6 games

What a huge price this is. Although there is no data on either at the WTA level on clay, Anisimova has been great at lower levels. She took the clay season off last year but played 3 events in 2017 and made the final in all 3. She has also raised her game significantly since then. In February 2017 she was #711 in the world. Today she is #76 and still going lower. Even considering all that this feels like too expensive. Since 2018, Serrano is 16-5 on the red dirt with an ITF title. She’s an 18 year old local wild card and will have the support of the crowd. I would love to take the +6 games and even sprinkle just a tiny bit on the moneyline, but I can’t do it. Serrano has never played someone in the top 100 and as mentioned, Anisimova is top 100 and only getting better. Pass.

Beatriz Haddad Maia -130 (1,76) vs Sara Sorribes Tormo +100 (2,00) Total Games 21

2 great wins for Haddad Maia to start this event. She beat Laura Siegemund in 2 sets and then won in 2 tiebreaks over the defending champion, Anna Schmiedlova. Tormo continues her success in Bogota. She has never lost to some not named “Lara Arruabarrena” on these courts. The numbers above like Tormo, but looking a level lower Haddad Maia looks the proper favorite. Beatriz was 13-2 on clay at the Challenger/ITF level with an average games of +5 against an average rank of 154. Tormo is only 12-6 with an average games of +2.4 against an average rank of 189. This pricing on the sides is correct. I pondered the over, but that’s the right amount of games and over 2.5 sets is too expensive at +145 (2,45). Pass.

Tamara Zidansek -160 (1,62) vs Lara Arruabarrena +130 (2,30) Total Games 21 Spread -/+ 3 games

Zidansek is a phenomenal clay player. She was 10-3 at the WTA level last season with an eyepopping hold+break of 116. At lower levels she was 38-9 with an average games of +3.4. These are all very impressive numbers and I look forward to betting on her all throughout the clay season. She’s an opponent who loves this event. Arruabarrena is 21-5 lifetime at this event. Though, outside of this event there isn’t much other clay experience or success to point to. This is Zidansek’s match to lose and I think a cheap price on her. There’s no parlay partner for her so I just have to drink the juice. Full unit on Zidansek -160 (1,62).jn

Astra Sharma -130 (1,76) vs Sara Errani -+100 (2,00) Total Games 21

Just looking at the data above and you would be shocked at this pricing. Errani has good clay numbers and she crushed Schoofs 2 & 1 yesterday. Sharma has no WTA level clay experience, but let’s look at the lower levels. In Challenger/ITF events she is 20-3 with an average games of +4.1, but against an average rank of 707. Errani is 5-1 at that level with average games of +6.1 against an average rank of 173. So even at a lower level it seems Errani is the better player. Errani even has an edge in tournament history. She’s made the quarterfinals 3 times and this is Sharma’s first time playing here. I would have Errani as the favorite, so full unit on Errani.

Recap

Lugano – Full unit Hercog -140 (1,71)

Bogota – Full unit Zidansek -160 (1,62)

Bogota – Full unit Errani -110 (1,91)