WTA Madrid Semifinals

Yesterday 1-1 +0.33 units

Season to date 132-186-16 -39.77 Units Average Odds -105 Average Units/Bet 1.02

All of these lines come from a local book that I use. I will say this often, BE SURE TO CHECK THE PRICES AT ALL THE BOOKS YOU CAN ACCESS. One of the easiest ways to be a better bettor is get the best prices. I’m using lines from my local to try to teach this lesson and make sure what I post is widely available to those who read. I’m sure anything I post in here is offered at a better number somewhere, so be smart and check all your outs before placing your wager. The first number after each player’s name is their US odds with decimal odds in parenthesis. I’ll list total games for every match and spreads for matches with a spread greater than 2.5 games. Anything less than that and just take the moneyline, no need to risk a bagel or breadstick ruining your favorite spread.

As for staking, 1 unit = 1% of my bankroll. Do what you’d like, but I think is the best plan for the long term. Almost all bets will be 1 unit, sometimes less and rarely more. If it’s a favorite, then the bet is to win the number of units posted. For example, 1 unit on a -130 (1,77) is a 1.3 unit bet to win 1 unit. If it’s an underdog, then the bet is to risk the units posted. For example, 1 unit on +200 (3,00) is 1 unit to win 2 units. Feel free to DM @_Noops with any questions.

Madrid

Belinda Bencic +265 (3,65) vs Simona Halep -345 (1,28) Total Games 20.5 Spread +/- 4.5 games

Bencic really hadn’t played clay court tennis since 2016. She’s played 11 matches on clay this season and has had success winning 8 of those matches. Her hold+break was 109. Looking a little closer, you can see she hasn’t beaten many players who are good on clay. Destanee Aiava, Allie Kiick, Taylor Townsend, Mandy Minella, Alison Van Uytvanck, Svetlana Kuznetsova, Kateryna Kozlova & Naomi Osaka. Besides Osaka, who isn’t at her best on the dirt, there’s not really an impressive name in the bunch. Now she faces one of, if not the, best clay players on planet Earth. Halep’s hold+break the last year is 134 and her record is 16-1. 134 is absurd. She holds 74% of her games and breaks at the crazy rate of 60%. Simona is also in great form. She’s played 6 matches this season on clay. She’s won all 6. She dropped her first set in a tiebreak and since then hasn’t dropped a set. I think Halep continues to roll. Bencic is a great all around player, but she hasn’t shown nearly enough proficiency on clay to give me any confidence in this match. The moneyline and spread look just about right. Pass.

Sloane Stephens +175 (2,75) vs Kiki Bertens -220 (1,45) Total Games 21.5 Spread +/- 3.5 games

Sloane Stephens seems to be loving her new coach. She recently started working with Sven Groeneveld and you can see a clear change in her attitude, focus, and fundamentals. The change in surface has seemed to help as well. After a slow start to the season, she’s 6-1 on the dirt. I think she has a chance to win this match and I would love to be to bet on her, but there are rules. One of those rules is that I do not bet on matches involving Kiki Bertens. If I bet on her to win, she loses. If I bet against her she wins. She is a great clay player and looked tremendous defeating Petra Kvitova in her last match. Pass.