It’s time to kick off the second part of the sunshine double. If you haven’t already, check out my preview of the entire tournament. I break down every quarter, provide some angles for Miami in general and make my outright picks. Onto to day 1!
Indian Wells in Total 17-24-1 -5.97 units
Season to date 87-98-10 -2.08 Units Average Odds +110 Average Units/Bet 0.93
All of these lines come from a local book that I use. I will say this often, BE SURE TO CHECK THE PRICES AT ALL THE BOOKS YOU CAN ACCESS. One of the easiest ways to be a better bettor is get the best prices. I’m using lines from my local to try to teach this lesson and make sure what I post is widely available to those who read. I’m sure anything I post in here is offered at a better number somewhere, so be smart and check all your outs before placing your wager. The first number after each player’s name is their US odds with decimal odds in parenthesis. I’ll list total games for every match and spreads for matches with a spread greater than 2.5 games. Anything less than that and just take the moneyline, no need to risk a bagel or breadstick ruining your favorite spread.
As for staking, 1 unit = 1% of my bankroll. Do what you’d like, but I think is the best plan for the long term. Almost all bets will be 1 unit, sometimes less and rarely more. If it’s a favorite then the bet is to win the number of units posted. For example, 1 unit on a -130 (1,77) is a 1.3 unit bet to win 1 unit. If it’s an underdog, then the bet is to risk the units posted. For example, 1 unit on +200 (3,00) is 1 unit to win 2 units. Feel free to DM @_Noops with any questions.
Ajla Tomljanovic -750 (1,13) vs Anna-Lena Friedsam +500 (6,00) Total Games 18 Spread -/+ 6 games
I have never heard Ms. Friedsam. She is from Germany, currently unranked and somehow is here in the main draw. Tomljanovic should be a much better player and deserving of such expensive pricing. Although she doesn’t often cover such large spreads or finish her matches in less than 18 games, my lack of intel on Friedsam forces me to pass on this match.
Andrea Petkovic +210 (3,10) vs Amanda Anisimova -260 (1,38) Total Games 20.5 Spread +/- 4 games
I talked about the young American, Anisimova, in my preview piece. This first should be winnable for her. I was expecting the pricing above and I agree with it. Petkovic is no slouch. She’s got a hold+break over 100 and +.7 games on average, but Anisimova sports a 118 hold+break and +2.84 games on average. Anisimova should win this match. My only concern is that since demolishing Aryna The Amazonian Warrior Sabalenka in the Australian Open she has won just 1 match in over a month. I’m optimistic about her chances in Miami, but I’m staying from this match.
Olga Danilovic +110 (2,10) vs Maria Sakkari -140 (1,71) Total Games 21.5
I just can’t bet on Maria Sakkari. She has better numbers, but she just keeps losing to seemingly inferior players. Danilovic is a good young player and I might have considered her in this match, mostly out of spite for Sukkari, but +110 doesn’t present any real value. In fact, there is actually some value on Sakkari, but I’m staying far away from this match.
Sara Sorribes Tormo +110 (2,10) vs Aleksandra Krunic -140 (1,71) Total games 21
Yuck. These women had some rough years last year. Krunic had a hold+break of only 86 on hard courts and finished her average match -2.57 games. As bad as those seem, they are not to be outdone by the almost spectacularly bad Sara Sorribes Tormo. Hold+break of 67 and finished her average match -5.5 games. Tormo’s AVERAGE MATCH was 4-6 2/3-6. ON AVERAGE she got smoked. I see some value in Krunic here. Those hard courts numbers are rough, but if I look at her clay numbers she’s a much better player on the slow surface. Her hold+break gets to 101 and she averaged +0.08 games. Those aren’t great, but they at least indicate Krunic is a capable tennis player. Krunic has beaten Tormo 3 times on clay in the last 3 years. Tormo does have win to her credit also on clay. I’m hesitant to compare these courts in Miami, albeit slow, to clay. In general, I see a capable player with a 3-1 head to head against a player who is awful. Full unit Krunic -140 (1,71)
Natalia Vikhlyantseva -270 (1,37) vs Magdalena Rybarikova +220 (3,20) Total Games 20 Spread -/+ 4.5 games
Pay little attention to Vikhlyantseva’s numbers above. I’m in the process of getting 2019 into my database, but Natalia is much better than those few performances last year indicate. Including qualifying matches, she’s played 21 matches since the Australian Open. She is 16-5 in those matches. Rybarikova hasn’t won a match since August of last year, roughly 8 months ago. I don’t expect her to break that streak today. -4.5 games is intriguing, but maybe I’ll parlay -270 with something. More to come on this.
Ekaterina Alexandrova +130 (2,30) vs Dayana Yastremska -160 (1,63) Total Games 21.5 Spread +/- 3 games
I’m excited for this match. 2 players playing good tennis as of late. Both with hold+break numbers above 109 and good average match numbers as well. Both had short runs in Indian Wells and should be fresh and ambitious to make a run in Miami. They played 3 times last year with Yastremska winning on hard and grass courts while Alexandrova won on clay. This will be a lot of fun, but I don’t see an angle to bet either woman. Taking a look at some of the numbers I talked about in my Indian Wells final preview, I do see some value in over 2.5 sets. Over 21.5 games, which only happens in 2 sets 23.2% of the times, is priced at -120 (1,83) which would put the price on over 2.5 sets at +139 (2,39). I’m seeing +145 on over 2.5 sets on Bovada. I’m going to grab that for a full unit. This should be a long, back & forth match and like 2 of their 3 previous meetings, I think we see a 3rd set.
Evgeniya Rodina +150 (2,50) vs Samantha Stosur -190 (1,53) Total Games 20.5 Spread +/- 3.5 games
Not much to get excited about here as these 2 women play for the change to get beat by Madison Keys. I’m struggling with the idea that Sam Stosur is such a big favorite, but I also don’t have any reason to bet Rodina at that number either, so I guess the price is right Bob? Stosur did beat Rodina 2 & 3 and 1 & 1 in their previous 2 matches. I don’t know. Pass.
Viktoria Kuzmova -105 (1,95) vs Daria Gavrilova -125 (1,80) Total Games 21.5
Gavrilova is in slightly better form. She won 2 matches in Indian Wells before losing a tough match to Elina Svitolina. She should have had a long enough break to be fresh for Miami. Kuzmova got smacked by Shuai Zhang 2 & 4 in Indian Wells which was very surprising for me. I though Kuzmova would have the power to beat Zhang, but that was not the case. I think Gavrilova can do everything Zhang can and possibly even better. Her hold+break and average games are better than Kuzmova and against a much better competition, average rank faced of 70 vs 124. I think Gavrilova wins this match and should be a bigger favorite, closer to -150 (1,67). Full unit on Gavrilova.
Xiyu Wang +165 (2,65) vs Monica Puig -215 (1,47) Total Games 20.5 Spread +/- 4 games
Puig has had a pretty quiet season so far. She won 3 matches in the Fed Cup, but hasn’t won back to back matches at any other point. She’s the better player and should win this match without much trouble. Normally I would look to parlay the -215 with something, but Puig’s unimpressive season is holding me back.
Pauline Parmentier +170 (2,70) vs Margarita Gasparyan -220 (1,45) Total Games 20.5 Spread +/-4 games
Gasparyan is the better player and should win this match. -4 games is just about right, maybe even half a game too low, and I see a little value in -220. I would make it more in the range of -250 to -260. Gasparyan is a player on the way up and Parmentier is a player on the way down. I’ll look to parlay -220 with something and put a half a unit on -4 games.
Yafan Wang -185 (1,54) vs Kristina Mladenovic +155 (2,55) Total Games 20.5 Spread -/+ 3.5 games
One of my favorite players has a great chance to advance to the second round. I really like Wang -185, this line should be -250. Look at those numbers above, 106 hold+break vs 94 and +1.35 games on average vs -1.28. Mladenovic plays a little better competition, but not enough to outweigh those large gaps in performance. Wang has a long break after losing in the first round in Indian Wells, so she should be fresh and ready to take care of business. Half a unit on -3.5 games and I’ll parlay -185 with something.
Whitney Osuigwe -525 (1,19) vs Mari Osaka +375 (4,75) Total Games 19 Spread -/+ 5.5 games
Well isn’t this nice. Naomi Osaka’s sister gets to play in the Miami Open. I have no idea what to do here. I have little data on either player. The price makes Osaka a giant dog, but I have no reason to actually bet on her. Pass.
Full unit Krunic -140 (1,71)
Half unit Vikhlyantseva -4.5 games
Full unit Alexandrova/Yastremska over 2.5 sets +145 (2,45)
Full unit Gavrilova -125 (1,80)
Half unit Gasparyan -4 games
Half unit Y Wang -3.5 games
Full unit parlay Gasparyan/Wang +130 (2,30)