More rain at the end of Day 2 shortened things again and frankly, I couldn’t have been happier about it. We started with Aleksandra Krunic actually losing to one of the worst players on tour, Sara Sorribes Tormo, going so far as to get bageled in the final set. It was a truly embarrassing match for Krunic and me. Vikhlyantseva and Gasparyan won their first sets pretty easily and then went on to lose their matches outright. The extra day of rest helped Marketa Vondrousova. Strycova only convered 1/6 break points in what was an unceremonious loss. In our final bet before the rain stopped things, Ekaterina Alexandrova looked uninspired losing a nice, neat 2 sets to Dayana Yastremska. Just an awful day. Petra Martic was serving up a break in the first once the rain started, but I was happy to see the day end. The tennis god really hate when I forget to post decimal odds. Yesterday was my second winless day after being so absent minded. Onward to a better Day 3 WITH decimal odds.
Yesterday 0-6 -5.5 units
Season to date 87-104-10 -7.58 Units Average Odds +110 Average Units/Bet 0.93
All of these lines come from a local book that I use. I will say this often, BE SURE TO CHECK THE PRICES AT ALL THE BOOKS YOU CAN ACCESS. One of the easiest ways to be a better bettor is get the best prices. I’m using lines from my local to try to teach this lesson and make sure what I post is widely available to those who read. I’m sure anything I post in here is offered at a better number somewhere, so be smart and check all your outs before placing your wager. The first number after each player’s name is their US odds with decimal odds in parenthesis. I’ll list total games for every match and spreads for matches with a spread greater than 2.5 games. Anything less than that and just take the moneyline, no need to risk a bagel or breadstick ruining your favorite spread.
As for staking, 1 unit = 1% of my bankroll. Do what you’d like, but I think is the best plan for the long term. Almost all bets will be 1 unit, sometimes less and rarely more. If it’s a favorite then the bet is to win the number of units posted. For example, 1 unit on a -130 (1,77) is a 1.3 unit bet to win 1 unit. If it’s an underdog, then the bet is to risk the units posted. For example, 1 unit on +200 (3,00) is 1 unit to win 2 units. Feel free to DM @_Noops with any questions.
Kaia Kanepi -175 (1,57) vs Alison Riske +145 (2,45) Total Games 20.5 Spread -/+ 3.5 games
At first glance I see a little value in Kanepi. Much better numbers and she’s faced a tougher competition. Both previous meetings between these 2 were 2014 or earlier so they have no relevance. Riske is coming into this match pretty cold after losing in the first round in Indian Wells. Kanepi has already won 2 matches comfortably in qualifying and should be used to the new courts. The total might be half a game too low, but there’s a chance Kanepi wins this quickly. I’ll parlay her with something.
Sachia Vickery +130 (2,30) vs Yanina Wickmayer -160 (1,63) Total Games 21
Both of these ladies had to qualify. Wickmayer won 2 matches easily while Vickery struggled in both of hers. Vickery has much better numbers, but she’s a hard player to trust. She struggles with knee issues that flair up regularly. I would expect these slower courts to exacerbate that problem. I reall want to take Vickery, but I’m going to pass.
Xin Yu Wang +225 (3,25) vs Misaki Doi -275 (1,36) Total Games 20 Spread -/+ 4.5 games
Not much to look forward to here. Do qualified for Indian Wells, won her first round and managed to take a set off Pliskova the Greater. Xin Yu (not Xiyu #KnowYourWangs) does not regularly play WTA events. All the numbers look more or less correct. Pass.
Cori Gauff +155 (2,55) vs Catherine McNally -185 (1,54) Total Games 20 Spread +/- 3.5 games
If you look above you will see that I have exactly 0 WTA matches in my database for these 2 ladies. Pass.
Taylor Townsend -305 (1,33) vs Johanna Larsson +245 (3,45) Total Games 20 Spread -/+ 5 games
Why is Townsend such a big favorite in this match? Larsson hasn’t done much this season, but I think that’s mostly the competition she’s faced. Since the Australian Open she’s lost to Wozniacki, Yastremska, Vikhlyantseva, Kozlova and Kanepi. Only one real disappointment in that bunch. Taylor Townsend needed 3 sets to beat the world’s #801 in her first qualifying match. Townsend has played twice on these new courts already, but I’m not sure that outweighs the disparity in the numbers. This match should be lined much more closely to evens. Full unit Larsson +5 games and half a unit Laarsson +245 (3,45).
Dalilia Jakupovic +255 (3,55) vs Venus Williams -325 (1,31) Total Games 20 Spread +/- 5 games
Venus made it all the way to the quarterfinals in Indian Wells. As I’ve mentioned before, a long run in Indian Wells is a bad sign for success in Miami. Let’s add on to that what appears to be the beginning of the end of Venus William’s career. She has been hard to watch this year as she has struggled mightily to move on the court and hit great shots. I am primed and ready to fade Venus this week and probably the rest of the season. Jakupovic is coming off a long break as she failed to qualify for Indian Wells. She’s got 2 matches under her belt as she did qualify here so rust shouldn’t be an issue. Venus’s numbers are better, but those are from last year and like I said, Venus has not looked herself. I’m not sure if Jakupovic can win this match, but 5 games is one too many. Full unit on Jakupovic +5 games.
Rebecca Peterson -160 (1,63) vs Laura Siegemund +130 (2,30) Total Games 21
Siegemund is 2-0 lifetime which is intriguing, but both matches were in 2015. Laura had a rough time qualifying, losing the opening set of both matches against Sorana Cirste and Polona Hercog. Peterson hasn’t won a match since the Fed cup. Neither woman is in any sort of form. The numbers say Peterson. I say pass.
Monica Niculescu -235 (1,43) vs Tamara Zidansek +185 (2,85) Total Games 20 Spread -/+ 4.5 games
Although neither players are great, but Niculescu numbers look better and are probably what’s driving this price. Zidansek is the younger player and seems to be improving which is something that appeals to me, but she hasn’t played a match since losing in qualifying in Doha. She looked good in Hua Hin the tournament prior, but that is a very long time to be off the court. Pass.
Viktorijia Golubic -140 (1,71) vs Aliaksandra Sanovich +110 (2,10) Total Games 21.5
What is driving this price? Sasnovich’s numbers are much better and against a much better level of competition. Sasnovich owns the head to head having won all 3 matches the 2 have played since 2017. This line must be completely tied to recent form. Golubic won the challenger in Indian Wells and then qualified for the premier mandatory in Indian Wells losing, admirably, to Barbora Strycova. She qualified for Miami so she has a few wins under her belt on the new courts. Last time we saw Sasnovich we had bet on her to beat Kateryna Kozlova in Indian Wells. She lost in 3 sets getting bageled in the 3rd. I’m going to look past the recent weeks and take Sasnovich again. She is the better player here and should be the favorite here. 2 full units on Sasnovich.
Petra Kvitova -455 (1,22) vs Maria Sakkari +355 (4,55) Total Games 19.5 Spread -/+ 5.5 games
Sakkari had a nice comeback making Olga Danilovic cry along the way yesterday. Her tournament ends here. Kvitova is a much better player and probably even deserving of the expensive pricing you see above. Pass.
Caroline Garcia +135 (2,35) vs Victoria Azarenka -165 (1,61) Total Games 21
Good news for Caroline Garcia, Jennifer Brady is not in the this tournament. Garcia has lost to Brady 3 times already this year in what has been a bizarre beginning to her season. This match is priced as if Garcia is expected to play at a high level. Both should be fresh coming off a short tournament in Indian Wells. They played once before, last year in Cincinnati and Garcia won 4 & 5. Azarenka did lose a set yesterday to Cibulkova, but this price looks cheap on Azarenka. I guess the head to head and yesterday’s performance are providing some value. I think I found my parlay partner for Kanepi.
Johanna Konta -185 (1,54) vs Jessica Pegula +145 (1,45) Total Games 20.5
I’m very excited to watch this match. Jessica Pegula has some stellar numbers, but she hard ever plays top level competition with an average rank faced of 139. A win here would arguably be the best of her career. If you followed my preview, you should be holding a small outright ticket on Konta at 100-1. When I made that bet, Pegula is not the qualifier I was hoping to see in round 1. Konta is a very good player, she should win this match. All the things I mentioned in my preview, short Indian Wells, won Miami in 2017, remain true and the moneyline and spread are priced properly. Pass.
Karolina Muchova -200 (1,50) vs Nao Hibino +165 (2,65) Total Games 20.5 Spread -/+ 3.5 games
Not the best sample size in my WTA numbers, but if I go down to challenger/ITF/qualifier data Muchova outclasses Hibino with an average games of +4.63 against average rank 179 vs +2.71 against average rank 259. They both qualified without much trouble. Nothing to see here. Pass.
Magdalena Rybarikova +330 (4,30) vs Julia Goerges -420 (1,24) Total Games 20 Spread +/- 5 games
Goerges is the much better player and deserves to be such a large favorite. I do see some value in the total which sits right on a what I believe to be a key number of 20. Both ladies average over 22 games on hard courts and these courts have been a little slow which leads to longer matches. Goerges holds serve at an impressive 81%, so if Rybarikova can hold at her 61% level we see a 4 & 4 Goerges win worst case. Full unit on the over.
Ashleigh Barty -195 (1,51) vs Dayana Yastremska +155 (2,55) Total Games 20.5 Spread -/+ 4 games
This is another match I have circled to hopefully watch today. 2 rising stars in the WTA will meet for the first time. Yastremska has a win under belt in her first match ever in Miami after a solid 3 & 2 victory over Ekaterina Alexandrova yesterday. Barty lost a tough match against Svitolina in Indian Wells, but should be fresh coming off a bye. Barty had a nice run in Miami last year making the round of 16. This match should be very close and I’m not sure why the line isn’t closer. The numbers you see above are almost identical. This should be -110/-115 each way which means we have a lot of value on Yastremska. Full unit on Yastremska +155 (2,55).
Sara Sorribes Tormo +330 (4,30) vs Donna Vekic -420 (1,24) Total Games 19.5 Spread +/- 5.5 games
I can’t believe Tormo won. Vekic should absolutely crush her. I want to lay the -5.5 games, but I’m not thinking rationally, so pass.
Xiyu Wang +390 (4,90) vs Kiki Bertens -490 (1.20) Total Games 18.5 Spread +/- 6 games
If you didn’t already know, I’m terrible at betting Kiki Bertens matches, so do the opposite of whatever comes next. Xiyu (not Xin Yu #KnowYourWangs) Wang had a nice win yesterday over crowd favorite Monica Puig. Now the 18 year old faces the 8th ranked player in the world Kiki Bertens. Kiki deserves to the large favorite she is. She had a short Indian Wells and should be rested and focused to win this match. Over 18.5 is intriguing, but I’m going to pass all around.
Samantha Stosur +305 (4,05) vs Madison Keys -395 (1,25) Total Games 20.5 Spread +/- 4.5 games
Sam Stosur used to be pretty good, she’s actually beat Keys the 2 times they played, in 2013. Now, as you can see above, things are much different. Keys lost surprisingly to Mona Barthel in her first match in Indian Wells, so I expect her to be very focused to do well in this tournament. Keys raises her level in big events and I think we’ll see that here. I also think she remembers Stosur punked her twice, 3 & 4 and 1 & 1, in 2013. I’m going to lay the -4.5 games for half a unit.
Yafan Wang -185 (1,54) vs Kristina Mladenovic +155 (2,55) Total Games 20.5 Spread -/+ 3.5 games
One of my favorite players has a great chance to advance to the second round. I really like Wang -185, this line should be -250 (1,40) . Look at those numbers above, 106 hold+break vs 94 and +1.35 games on average vs -1.28. Mladenovic plays a little better competition, but not enough to outweigh those large gaps in performance. Wang has a long break after losing in the first round in Indian Wells, so she should be fresh and ready to take care of business. Half a unit on -3.5 games and I’ll parlay -185 with something.
Whitney Osuigwe -525 (1,19) vs Mari Osaka +375 (4,75) Total Games 19 Spread -/+ 5.5 games
Well isn’t this nice. Naomi Osaka’s sister gets to play in the Miami Open. I have no idea what to do here. I have little data on either player. The price makes Osaka a giant dog, but I have no reason to actually bet on her. Pass.
Irina-Camelia Begu +230 vs Bianca Andreescu -280 Total Games 20 Spread +/- 4.5 games
Bianca Andreescu is wonderful. What an incredible win in Indian Wells. As I mentioned in my preview, success in Indian Wells doesn’t bode well for Miami. I’m going to pass on this match. Begu isn’t very good, so it’s not time to fad Andreescu yet especially with the rain giving her an extra day of rest. Pass.
Viktoria Kuzmova -105 (1,95) vs Daria Gavrilova -125 (1,80) Total Games 21.5
Gavrilova is in slightly better form. She won 2 matches in Indian Wells before losing a tough match to Elina Svitolina. She should have had a long enough break to be fresh for Miami. Kuzmova got smacked by Shuai Zhang 2 & 4 in Indian Wells which was very surprising for me. I though Kuzmova would have the power to beat Zhang, but that was not the case. I think Gavrilova can do everything Zhang can and possibly even better. Her hold+break and average games are better than Kuzmova and against a much better competition, average rank faced of 70 vs 124. I think Gavrilova wins this match and should be a bigger favorite, closer to -150 (1,67). Full unit on Gavrilova.
Anna Schmiedlova +120 vs Tatjana Maria -150 Total Games 20.5
Ew, can we get 2 qualifiers to play instead? At first, I thought there was value in Schmiedlova because Maria should never really be -150 against any healthy, profession tennis player. Then I remember than Schmiedlova also stinks. Never bet on a match where both women stink. Pass.
Ons Jabeur +110 vs Alison Van Uytvanck -140 Total Games 21
Van Uytvanck won the tournament in Budapest and was finding some good form before running into the Belinda Bencic buzzsaw in Indian Wells. Jabeur has failed to look at all like the player we saw at the end of last season. There’s probably some value in AVU, but I’m not interested. I do love this over. Both women average comfortably over 22 games on hard courts. Matches in Miami historically run long. Full unit on over 21 games.
Full unit Larsson +5 games
Half unit Larsson +245 (3,45)
Full unit Jakupovic +5 games
2 units Sasnovich +110 (2,10)
Full unit Rybarikova/Goerges over 20 games
Full unit Yastremska +155 (2,55)
Half unit Keys -4.5 games
Full unit parlay Kanepi/Azarenka +150 (2,50)
Half unit Y Wang -3.5 games
Full unit Gavrilova -125 (1,80)
Full unit Jabeur/Van Uytvanck over 21 games