WTA Miami Open Day 4

Yesterday was stressful. Larsson was cold as ice. Jakupovic couldn’t take advantage of a hobbled Venus Williams. Sasnovich came back from certain death to win. Rybarikova/Goerges and Yastremska were simultaneously easy good and easy bad. Keys, Kanepi, Azarenka & Gavrilova were all a disappointment. Despite all that we stayed just about even.

Yesterday 4-5-2 -0.6 units

Season to date 91-109-12 -8.18 Units Average Odds +110 Average Units/Bet 0.93

All of these lines come from a local book that I use. I will say this often, BE SURE TO CHECK THE PRICES AT ALL THE BOOKS YOU CAN ACCESS. One of the easiest ways to be a better bettor is get the best prices. I’m using lines from my local to try to teach this lesson and make sure what I post is widely available to those who read. I’m sure anything I post in here is offered at a better number somewhere, so be smart and check all your outs before placing your wager. The first number after each player’s name is their US odds with decimal odds in parenthesis. I’ll list total games for every match and spreads for matches with a spread greater than 2.5 games. Anything less than that and just take the moneyline, no need to risk a bagel or breadstick ruining your favorite spread.

As for staking, 1 unit = 1% of my bankroll. Do what you’d like, but I think is the best plan for the long term. Almost all bets will be 1 unit, sometimes less and rarely more. If it’s a favorite then the bet is to win the number of units posted. For example, 1 unit on a -130 (1,77) is a 1.3 unit bet to win 1 unit. If it’s an underdog, then the bet is to risk the units posted. For example, 1 unit on +200 (3,00) is 1 unit to win 2 units. Feel free to DM @_Noops with any questions.

Noami Osaka -430 (1,23) vs Yanina Wickmayer +340 (4,40) Total Games 19.5 Spread -/+ 5 games

Osaka is the #1 player in the world. Wickmayer is a good challenger/ITF player. Unless Osaka has some sort of a mental breakdown she should easily. Even if she does have a mental breakdown she probably wins. Coaches seem to be very important for some players and Osaka is at the top of that list. I was shocked by the interactions between her and Jermaine Jenkins as she melted under the fire that is Belinda Bencic. This should a good opportunity for Osaka to get an easy win under her belt. Hopefully she takes it. Pass.

Alison Riske -110 (1,91) vs Su Wei Hsieh -120 (1,83) Total Games 21

They played twice in 2016 and Riske won both times. Riske looked impressive yesterday dispatching Kaia Kanepi 2 & 2. If she plays like that again she’ll beat Hsieh. If she’s not hitting her spots and creating points, Hsieh will slowly drive her mad and win the match. This is probably a cheap spot for Hsieh, but Riske can raise her level and win. Pass.

Garbiñe Muguruza -250 (1,40) vs Monica Niculsecu +200 (3,00) Total Games 20.5 Spread -/+ 4.5 games

I’m not betting on Muguruza matches anymore. It’s just not fun. Muguruthless could show up and hand out 2 bagels. Muguruseless could show up and get double bageled. Pass.

Aliaksandra Sasnovich +170 (2,70) vs Caroline Wozniacki -210 (1,48) Total Games 20.5 Spread +/- 4 games

Sasnovich is trying to kill me. After she lost the first set yesterday I turned off all tennis for the rest of the day. I didn’t even check scores for a few hours. She could win again here. These 2 played a tough 3 setter in Melbourne and while Wozniacki was the victor, Sasnovich held her own. There just isn’t enough value here for me to back Sasnovich again. I was tempted by the over, but Sasnovich has played a lot of quick matches this year. Pass.

Aryna Sabalenka -275 (1,36) vs Alja Tomljanovic +170 (2,70) Total Games 20 Spread -/+4.5 games

They’ve played twice. Both matches went to 3 sets and ended with Sabalenka bageling Tomljanovic to win the match. Sabalenka deserves to be such a large favorite. That total is a half to maybe even a full game too low. Given the history and the hold rates for both players I think we see 20 games at the worst. Full unit on the over.

Amanda Anisimova -155 (1,65) vs Anett Kontaveit +125 (2,25) Total Games 21

This looks like a cheap spot to take the young American. Much better numbers and the difference in performance outweighs the gap in competition faced. Kontaveit hasn’t done anything this year or last year to earn this pricing. She is a much better player on clay, but these courts are not nearly as slow. Full unit on Anisimova.

Sofia Kenin -120 (1,83) vs Bianca Andreescu -110 (1,91) Total Games 21

Andreescu has played 19 matches since the Australian Open ended. She won a title in Newport Beach. She won both of her Fed Cup matches. She won the biggest title in the history of Canadian tennis last week. She’s only lost once in those 19 matches and guess who she lost to? Sofia Kenin in the semifinals in Acapulco. Andreescu should be exhausted by now and Kenin is a good player, but I’m not getting involved here. Begu was up a set and serving at 5-1 in the second set. Andreescu won the match. I’m not getting involved. Pass.

Karolina Muchova +185 (2,85) vs Angelique Kerber -235 (1,43) Total Games 20 Spread +/- 4.5 games

What impressive numbers for Muchova this, but make sure you caveat them with a less than impressive average competition faced. Kerber is one of the very best players in the world, but she made the final last week and I’m looking for a spot to fade her fatigue. Muchova has played only 6 matches against top 50 players. She beat Muguruseless and Hsieh and didn’t win for than 7 games in any of the other matches. I need more value to take Muchova. Pass.

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova -150 (1,67) vs Viktoria Kuzmova +120 (2,20) Total Games 21

I’m surprised this is so close. Kuzmova had a good win over Gavrilova yesterday, 4 & 2. Pavlyuchenkova has better numbers and against a better competition faced. Pavs hasn’t played aa good match in about a month though. Over is an ok look, but I’m not thrilled about it. Pass.

Karolina Pliskova -250 (1,40) vs Petra Martic +160 (2,60) Total Games 21 Spread -/+ 4 games.

Well, well, well, Martic is 3-0, all 2 set wins, against Pliskova the Greater. Oh, they were all before 2014. Pliskova has quietly been very good this year. She won Brisbane, made the semifinals in Melbourne and the quarterfinals in Dubai & Indian Wells. As you can see in the numbers above, Martic hasn’t found the same form as she had last year. I think she can win this match, but I’m not interested at this price. Pass.

Alize Cornet -155 (1,65) vs Mihaela Buzarnescu +105 (2,05)

Buzarnescu has won just one match since August of last year, over 7 months ago. That said, I don’t love Cornet. She’s better on slow surfaces, so this should a good tournament for her, but I’m going to pass.

Belinda Bencic -350 (1,29) vs Yulia Putintseva +270 (2,70) Total Games 20 Spread -/+ 5 games

Belinda Bencic has been incredible this year. You can see above she has taken some big strides in her performance over last year. Putintseva has been good, but nowhere near as good as Bencic. I think the moneyline and spread reflect Bencic’s form so far this year and probably accurate. The total looks at least half a game too low. Bencic is coming off a long run in Indian Wells so I don’t expect her to be at her best. Both women average over 21 games on hards.    Both have solid and improving hold rates. Full unit on over 20 games.

Katerina Siniakova -110 (1,91) vs Anastasija Sevastova -120 (1,83) Total Games 21

No way I can bet this match. Sevastova has been the much better player. This line screams injury to me. Sevastova should be the prohibitive favorite. She withdrew from Indian Wells with an injury so I assume it hasn’t gotten any better. I’m not going anywhere near this match. Pass.

Elise Mertens -600 (1,17) vs Pauline Parmentier +400 (5,00) Total Games 19 Spread -/+5.5 games

Mertens is the much better player. She was better last year. She’s been better this year. This line is right. No value to be had. Pass.

Marketa Vondrousova -205 (1,49) vs Jelena Ostapenko +170 (2,70) Total Games 20.5 -/+ 4 games

Vondrousova has been incredible this year. It’s been a solid year and half since we could comfortably say Ostapenko has been good. This price looks just about right. Pass.

Camila Giorgi -155 (1,65) vs Tatjana Maria +125 (2,25) Total Games 20.5 Spread -/+ 3 games

What a tough start to the year it’s been for Giorgi. She’s lost 3 times outside of the Fed Cup, but her 3 losses were to Kerber, Pliskova the Greater and Kiki Bertens. There is nothing to be ashamed of there. Taking a look above, she’s played some great tennis even in her limited matches and has been much better than Maria. It has been over month since Giorgi even played competitively. Maria has a win in Miami against Anna Schmiedlova, in what was hilarious meeting of 2 top 70 players, already so she should have a feel for the courts. I guess that’s what’s driving this price? I’m taking Giorgi, this is a really cheap opportunity to take a much better player. Full unit on Giorgi.

Ons Jabeur +165 (2,65) vs Sloane Stephens -205 (1,49( Total Games 20.5 Spread +/- 3.5 games

Sloane Stephens is approaching the level of Muguruza. She is defending a title here and I have no idea if she’s actually going to try. She’s much better than Jabeur. Her game is perfect for these conditions. She should win easily. I hope she does. Pass.

Elina Svitolina -305 (1,33) vs Yafan Wang +245 (3,45) Total Games 19.5 Spread -/+ 5 games

Svitolina is apparently have some trouble with one of her knees. She had an MRI before playing Indian Wells that showed swelling and inflammation. She played though the pain and made it all the way to the semifinals. I don’t think she’s going to be at her very best and I think Wang can win this match. Wang is a young player who’s going to continue to get better. I think she can take advantage of a fatigued Svitolina. Full unit Wang +5 games and half a unit +265.

Whitney Osuigwe +170 (2,70) vs Danielle Collins -220 (1,45) Total Games 20.5 Spread +/- 4 games

I’m excited to see what Danielle Collins can do in Miami. She hasn’t been very good since her run at the Australian Open, but this is going to be a good match to help her get right. Osuigwe is not a WTA level player yet. This price looks right to me. Pass.

Qiang Wang +100 (2,00) vs Johanna Konta -130 (1,77) Total Games 21.5

I’m excited for this match. Qiang Wang has been one of my favorite players over the last year. Konta has been a better than Wang this year which is dictating the pricing. Konta is holding serve at 82% and Wang hasn’t broken as much this year as she did last. Konta is deserving of being the favorite. This will be fun to watch, but no value for betting purposes. Pass.

Rebecca Peterson +425 (5,25) vs Serena Williams -570 (1,18) Total Games 20 Spread +/- 5 games

Noted mother and tennis player Serena Williams is playing today. She’s won the title in Miami 8 times. She’s one of the favorites to win this time. This is a gigantic price. I have no interest in getting involved at all. Pass.

Daria Kasatkina -275 (1,36) vs Cori Gauff +225 (3,25) Total Games 20.5 Spread -/+ 4.5 games

Gosh, Kasatkina has been awful. I feel inclined to even bet Gauff, but she’s not a WTA player yet. I have to pass. Bet Gauff if you’d like, it’s not the worst idea, but I’m passing.

Venus Williams -120 (1,83) vs Carla Suarez Navarro -110 (1,91) Total Games 21

Venus Williams continues to slog through matches. She looked awful and somehow won. I’m fading her again. Suarez Navarro is a good player will make Venus work and I believe, tire her out. Venus did beat her in Indian Wells, but at this point has to be breaking down. I’m fading Venus again, full unit on CSN.

Lesia Tsurenko -260 (1,38) vs Misaki Doi +210 (3,10) Total Games 20 Spread -/+ 4.5 games

Tsurenko is the better player and should win without much struggle. This pricing looks about right, but I’m going to actually lay the -4.5 games for a little. Half unit on -4.5 games.

Taylor Townsend +395 (4,95) vs Simona Halep -540 (1,19) Total Games 19 Spread +/- 5.5 games

Take the preview you just read, change Tsurenko to Halep, but skid the bet on the spread. Pass.

Recap

Full unit Anisimova -155 (1,65)

Full unit Bencic/Putintseva over 20 games

Full unit Sabalenka/Tomljanovic over 20 games

Full unit Giorgi -155 (1,65)

Full unit Y Wang +5 games

Half unit Y Wang +245 (3,45)

Full unit Suarez Navarro -110 (1,91)

Half unit Tsurenko -4.5 games