So close a good day yesterday. Anisimova was up a break in the 3rd and lost. Aryna Sabalenka needed to win just 1 more game, serving at 4-4 in the second, to give us the win on our over bet. Venus Williams continues to hit the ball like an ITF player and win. Camila Giorgi may not actually care about tennis. A rough Miami continues, but onward we go.
Yesterday 3-4-1 -2.07 units
Season to date 94-113-13 -10.25 Units Average Odds +105 Average Units/Bet 0.97
All of these lines come from a local book that I use. I will say this often, BE SURE TO CHECK THE PRICES AT ALL THE BOOKS YOU CAN ACCESS. One of the easiest ways to be a better bettor is get the best prices. I’m using lines from my local to try to teach this lesson and make sure what I post is widely available to those who read. I’m sure anything I post in here is offered at a better number somewhere, so be smart and check all your outs before placing your wager. The first number after each player’s name is their US odds with decimal odds in parenthesis. I’ll list total games for every match and spreads for matches with a spread greater than 2.5 games. Anything less than that and just take the moneyline, no need to risk a bagel or breadstick ruining your favorite spread.
As for staking, 1 unit = 1% of my bankroll. Do what you’d like, but I think is the best plan for the long term. Almost all bets will be 1 unit, sometimes less and rarely more. If it’s a favorite then the bet is to win the number of units posted. For example, 1 unit on a -130 (1,77) is a 1.3 unit bet to win 1 unit. If it’s an underdog, then the bet is to risk the units posted. For example, 1 unit on +200 (3,00) is 1 unit to win 2 units. Feel free to DM @_Noops with any questions.
Ashleigh Barty -800 vs Samantha Stosur +500 Total Games 19 Spread -/+ 5.5 games
Stosur actually beat Barty in Miami 2 years ago 4 & 4. These are new courts and Barty is a much different player and the line indicates that clearly. Barty had a short run in Indian Wells, so I think she’ll be doing her very best to make a long run here. She beat Yastremska 4 & 1 in her first match and looked great doing it. Stosur has 2 wins in Miami already, 1 over Madison Keys, but he tournament ends here. The pricing is pretty nuts and I would normally be attracted by a +5.5, but I’m going to pass.
Caroline Garcia -130 vs Julia Goerges +105 Total Games 22
Unless she’s playing Jennifer Brady, Garcia has had a nice month and a half of tennis. She is 2-0 lifetime against Goerges, but one was on clay and the match on hard courts was in 2016. I think that head to head is giving us a cheap price on Goerges. She’s the better player. Better hold+break and average games this year and last year, I’m jumping on what I believe to the better player at a +$. Full unit on Goerges.
Petra Kvitova -235 vs Donna Vekic +190 Total Games 21 Spread -/+ 4 games
Both women are playing great tennis this year with hold+breaks over 110. I’m really intrigued by Vekic at these prices. Vekic actually beat her this year in St Petersburg. I think Vekic has a chance to be a very good player, Kvitova is already one of the best in the world. The loss in St. Petersburg came off Kvitova’s run to the final in Melbourne after winning the tournament before in Sydney. I think there was a lot of fatigue in that loss earlier this year. Kvitova should win this match. I lean Vekic based on the price, but there’s just not enough value to place a wager. Pass.
Naomi Osaka -235 vs Su Wei Hsieh +170 Total Games 20.5 Spread -/+ 4 games
This could be a lot of fun. Osaka has seemed to have some struggles mentally as of late. She looked confused and frustrated during her loss to Bencic in Indian Wells. I was surprised she dropped a set to Wickmayer, albeit in a tiebreak, yesterday. Hsieh is exactly who you don’t want to see on the other side of the net if you’re mental state is lacking fortitude. Osaka beat Hsieh in 3 tough sets in Melbourne. I expect Hsieh to keep this close and push Osaka. I also think that total is low. I’m putting ¾ of a unit on Hsieh +4 and over 20.5 games.
Monica Niculescu +240 vs Caroline Wozniacki -305 Total Games 20 Spread +/- 4.5 games
These 2 have played 9 times going all the way back to 2006 and Wozniacki has won all 9 of those matches. This should come as no surprise as Wozniacki is the much better player. Niculescu has had a great season so far, a hold+break of 112 is impressive. There’s probably a little value on Niculescu, but I’m going to pass.
Victoria Kuzmova +210 vs Kiki Bertens -285 Total Games 20.5 Spread +/- 4 games
Time to handicap a match involving Kiki Bertens, so of course, a friendly reminder that I generally get any match involving Kiki Bertens wrong. That last part is concerning, because I think I love Kuzmova at this price. She already beat Kiki this year in Dubai. Looking at the numbers above, Bertens is the much better player and deserving to be the favorite. This should also be a good matchup for Kiki as I’m struggling to think of anything Kuzmova does that’s different or better than Bertens. I’m going to pass.
Ajla Tomljanovic +130 vs Anett Kontaveit -170 Total Games 21.5
Amanda Anisimova really had a big letdown and here we have another chance to bet against Kontaveit. Unless this match has been moved to a special, this match only, clay court I can’t wrap my head around why Kontaveit is such a big favorite. I’m taking Ajla for a full unit. Better numbers this year, similar numbers last year. At the very least this match should be lined evenly so let’s grab value with the underdog.
Bianca Andreescu -115 vs Angelique Kerber -110 Total Games 21.5
I love finals rematches, especially in the very next tournament. These 2 played a great match in Indian Wells and have somehow staved off fatigue to make it to the 3rd round. I have no idea what to do here other than be excited to watch. Pass.
Full unit Goerges +105 (2,05)
¾ of a unit Hsieh +4 games
¾ of a unit Osaka/Hsieh over 20.5 games
Full unit Tomljanovic +130 (2,30)