Well someone had to lose the match between Anett Kontaveit and Ajla Tomljanovic, I’m just sad it was our girl. It was a fantastic match and both raised their level of play to match one another repeatedly. Kontaveit won 2 tiebreaks and moves on. Caroline Garcia and Ashleigh Barty walloped their opponents. Donna Vekic was impressive in her loss to Kvitova. She gave Petra all she could handle and I’m looking forward to see how she continues to grow. Bianca Andreescu just keeps winning and Su Wei Hsieh just keeps frustrating players into beating themselves. It was a great day of WTA of tennis and we should have another one today!
Yesterday 2-2 -.5 units
Season to date 96-115-13 -10.75 Units Average Odds +105 Average Units/Bet 0.97
All of these lines come from a local book that I use. I will say this often, BE SURE TO CHECK THE PRICES AT ALL THE BOOKS YOU CAN ACCESS. One of the easiest ways to be a better bettor is get the best prices. I’m using lines from my local to try to teach this lesson and make sure what I post is widely available to those who read. I’m sure anything I post in here is offered at a better number somewhere, so be smart and check all your outs before placing your wager. The first number after each player’s name is their US odds with decimal odds in parenthesis. I’ll list total games for every match and spreads for matches with a spread greater than 2.5 games. Anything less than that and just take the moneyline, no need to risk a bagel or breadstick ruining your favorite spread.
As for staking, 1 unit = 1% of my bankroll. Do what you’d like, but I think is the best plan for the long term. Almost all bets will be 1 unit, sometimes less and rarely more. If it’s a favorite then the bet is to win the number of units posted. For example, 1 unit on a -130 (1,77) is a 1.3 unit bet to win 1 unit. If it’s an underdog, then the bet is to risk the units posted. For example, 1 unit on +200 (3,00) is 1 unit to win 2 units. Feel free to DM @_Noops with any questions.
Karolina Pliskova -490 vs Alize Cornet +390 Total Games 20 Spread -/+ 5 games
Pliskova rolls here. She’s the better player and she won’s the last 2 head to head matchups. The slower courts should help Cornet, but not enough to actually win the match. The pricing is just about right. I feel inclined to take the -5 games, but Plsikova doesn’t seem to mind losing a set along the way. I also feel inclined to take the over, but I’m going pass. All 3 head to head meetings were quick affairs. Pass all around.
Yulia Putintseva +160 vs Anastasija Sevastova -200 Total Games 20.5 Spread +/- 4 games
Putintseva is a live dog here. She’s a pesky opponent and she’s going to make Sevastova work. Sevastova is a tough player to rely on. She gives up sets seemingly without much fight. She did not looking good in her win over Siniakova. The moneyline doesn’t offer enough value, but +4 games look great. Full unit on Putintseva +4 games.
Elise Mertens -110 vs Marketa Vondrousova -120 Total Games 21.5
This is going to be a great match. These slower courts are great for Mertens game. She’s going to get to a lot of balls. Vondrousova has had no problem in her first 2 matches. Both are playing at a high level. I think the court favors Mertens, but Vondrousova has been the better of the 2 players this season. I’m going to pass on the moneyline. I do like the over though. 21.5 games I a lot, but over 2.5 sets at bovada is +150. Full unit on over 2.5 sets.
Tatjana Maria +240 vs Sloane Stephens -300 Total Games 20 Spread +/- 4.5 games
Sloane Stephens looked great dispatching Jabeur 2 & 3. She should win this match ease. That said, who knows when Sloañe Muguruphens might rear her ugly head. Pass.
Yafan Wang -120 vs Danielle Collins -110 Total Games 21.5
Another great match. If you followed my preview, you should be holding a small Yafan Wang ticket. I like her to win this match and there might even be a little value on her here at -120. Wang has looked very comfortable on these courts and Collins still hasn’t played great tennis since Melbourne. Pass and no hedge on the outright.
Daria Kastakina +120 vs Venus Williams -150 Total Games 21
I’m 0-1-1 -1.1 units fading Venus Williams this week. I’m going to continue fading Venus Williams anyway. She looks like a shell of herself. She’s serving under 80mph which is a bad second serve for most women. Kasatkina should have the movement and return skills to make Venus work hard and outlast her. Full unit on Kasatkina.
Polona Hercog +615 vs Simona Halep -1015 Total Games 18.5 Spread +/-6 games
What a lucky loser Polona Hercog is. She walks into the 3 round points at premier mandatory thanks to Lesia Tsurenko’s withdrawal. Halep is going to destroy her. Take Halep in daily fantasy, but pass on all these numbers.
Full unit Putintseva +4 games
Full unit Mertens/Vondrousova over 2.5 sets
Full unit Kasatkina +120