Rain, rain, why couldn’t you have just gone away and come back another day? Simona Halep was clearly affected by all the starting and stopping in her semifinal match. She held an early lead going into the first rain delay and never looked the same after they restarted. I imagine all that starting and stopping was rough on her back and with her style of play, the lack of rhythm didn’t help either. Pliskova handled things much better and will now have a chance to win the tournament. Much earlier in the day, Ashleigh Barty, to no surprise of this writer, beat Anett Kontaveit comfortably & convincingly. It should be a great final.
Yesterday 0-2 -2.05 units
Season to date 101-122-13 -10.65 Units Average Odds +105 Average Units/Bet 0.97
All of these lines come from a local book that I use. I will say this often, BE SURE TO CHECK THE PRICES AT ALL THE BOOKS YOU CAN ACCESS. One of the easiest ways to be a better bettor is get the best prices. I’m using lines from my local to try to teach this lesson and make sure what I post is widely available to those who read. I’m sure anything I post in here is offered at a better number somewhere, so be smart and check all your outs before placing your wager. The first number after each player’s name is their US odds with decimal odds in parenthesis. I’ll list total games for every match and spreads for matches with a spread greater than 2.5 games. Anything less than that and just take the moneyline, no need to risk a bagel or breadstick ruining your favorite spread.
As for staking, 1 unit = 1% of my bankroll. Do what you’d like, but I think is the best plan for the long term. Almost all bets will be 1 unit, sometimes less and rarely more. If it’s a favorite then the bet is to win the number of units posted. For example, 1 unit on a -130 (1,77) is a 1.3 unit bet to win 1 unit. If it’s an underdog, then the bet is to risk the units posted. For example, 1 unit on +200 (3,00) is 1 unit to win 2 units. Feel free to DM @_Noops with any questions.
Ashleigh Barty -115 (1,87) vs Karolina Pliskova -115 (1,87) Total Games 22.5
22.5 games. Twenty. Two. And. A half. Games. That is almost certainly the highest total I’ve ever seen in a WTA match. Looking at the table above, this might actually make sense. Although both average well under 22.5 games on hard courts they do have hold percentages close to 80%. Each has a really strong serve and knows how position it effectively. We might even see the rare WTA tiebreak today. In the 34,328 sets played on hard court since 2010 in my database only 5,514 (16%!) of them ended with a tiebreak. If you want to bet “Yes, there will be a tiebreak during the match,” you would only get +200 (3,00) which implies there is a 33.3% chance of a tiebreak today. The market has decided these 2 are more than twice as likely to play a tiebreak than average. Finally, looking at over 2.5 sets, I see the price is +125(2,25). Based on historical averages I shared earlier this week, this priced should be +110 (2,10). That’s about a 7% edge which is nice, but I’m going to pass. The total and the set market look properly priced to me.
So who wins the title in Miami? This will be the 5th time Barty & Pliskova. The series sits at 2-2 with each winning a match on hard court and grass. Both are having great seasons so far. Pliskova is 21-4 on the season with a title already in Brisbane. Barty is 17-3 and this will be her second chance to win a title. She lost to Kvitova in the final in Sydney. Both have been tested by top 10 talent this week. Barty lost her first set to Kiki Bertens and faced a 3rd set against Petra Kvitova. Pliskova lost her first set in back to back matches and was able to remain focused during a long match, full of rain delays against Simona Halep. This match is going extremely close. The more I think about it, the less sure I am about it. Barty has the chance to dictate this match. She has the shot variety to move Pliskova around the court which is exactly what you need to do to beat Pliskova. That said, Pliskova does move better than people think and she can hit some nice winners on the move. I also wonder how many chances there will be with how good her serve can be. I think this price is right, this really is a coin flip. Pass.
Passing on everything :(