WTA Miami Open Quarterfinals, Part 1

Well that was fun! Hsieh looked great beating Caroline Wozniacki in an entertaining 3 setter. Wozniacki won the 2nd set tiebreaker 7-0. After getting blanked, Hsieh proceeded to win the first 11 points of the 3rd set, breaking Wozniacki twice along the way. More on Su Wei’s brilliance later. Putintseva almost pulled off the upset. She couldn’t get to the tiebreak in the 3rd set and lost, but covered the +4 and the over for us. Venus Williams finally lost and Bianca Andreescu finally got tired. Qiang claimed the “Best Wang in China” title belt from Yafan. I hope we get to see those 2 play a few more times this year. On to the quarterfinals!

Yesterday 3-1 +3.05 units

Season to date 100-118-13 -8.70 Units Average Odds +105 Average Units/Bet 0.97

All of these lines come from a local book that I use. I will say this often, BE SURE TO CHECK THE PRICES AT ALL THE BOOKS YOU CAN ACCESS. One of the easiest ways to be a better bettor is get the best prices. I’m using lines from my local to try to teach this lesson and make sure what I post is widely available to those who read. I’m sure anything I post in here is offered at a better number somewhere, so be smart and check all your outs before placing your wager. The first number after each player’s name is their US odds with decimal odds in parenthesis. I’ll list total games for every match and spreads for matches with a spread greater than 2.5 games. Anything less than that and just take the moneyline, no need to risk a bagel or breadstick ruining your favorite spread.

As for staking, 1 unit = 1% of my bankroll. Do what you’d like, but I think is the best plan for the long term. Almost all bets will be 1 unit, sometimes less and rarely more. If it’s a favorite then the bet is to win the number of units posted. For example, 1 unit on a -130 (1,77) is a 1.3 unit bet to win 1 unit. If it’s an underdog, then the bet is to risk the units posted. For example, 1 unit on +200 (3,00) is 1 unit to win 2 units. Feel free to DM @_Noops with any questions.

Su Wei Hsieh -115 (1,87) vs Anett Kontaveit -115 (1,87) Total Games 21.5

Hsieh is now one of my favorite players. She plays 3-dimensional tennis. She uses a drop shot to suck her opponents towards the net then lobs the ball easily over their head. I’ve seen countless players try this and either they hit the ball out or have too much loft giving their opponent a chance to return. Hsieh forces women left and right, forward and backward, she must be frustrating to play. She has little, if any power to her game, but she’s adjusted the way she hits to compensate. She uses a 2-hand forehand which at first seems odd, but I think it lets her swing more quickly and it definitely improves her accuracy. So instead of hitting a shot with great power, she hits a shot that gets the ball back more quickly than anticipated and into much tighter windows. She changes the timing of how most of these ladies are used to playing tennis and forces them to consider balls other women would hit out. She combines these with her movement to constantly create pressure, squeezing her opponents until they pop. She is an oasis of intelligent tennis in a world of servebots and ball bashers.

I don’t have anything as nice or interesting to say about Kontaveit. I will when we get to clay season, but we’re not quite there yet. If this match were on clay I would be all over Anett, but it’s not on clay. The courts in Miami are slow, but they’re not clay, that’s a whole different world. I would make Hsieh a much bigger favorite, probably -150 (1,67), and will be putting a full unit on her at this price. 21.5 games on the total and over 2.5 sets at +145 (1,55) are both just about right.

Petra Kvitova-170 (1,59) vs Ashleigh Barty+135 (1,45) Total Games 21.5 Spread -/+ 3 games

This could be a classic. Kvitova is 4-0 lifetime against Barty, 3-0 in the last 3 years. They played an incredible match in Sydney this season. Barty took the first set 6-1 and Kvitova battled back to win in 3 sets, 6, 5 & 3. Both players showed some of their very best tennis and it was over it really felt like Kvitova won and Barty hadn’t lost. It was mostly they just by the rules of tennis had to finish the match at that point. Kvitova did crush Barty in 1 & 4 in Melbourne just a week or so later. Although Kvitova is making a case for player of the year, Barty might be in better form. She demolished Dayana Yastremska and Sam Stosur. She lost the first set to Kiki Bertens yesterday, but proceed to win the next 2 sets 3 & 2. She is playing some of the best tennis in her life. Preview readers and I are holding a Kvitova 14-1 ticket. I’m not hedging. I expect Kvitova to win this match and think the moneyline and spread are correct. The total at 21.5 games looks right, but what does look off is the price on over 2.5 sets. I see over 2.5 sets at Bovada at +170 (2,70). Based on the price of over 21.5 and the historical rate of matches that go over 21.5 games AND go over 2 sets I see a lot of value in that number. Take a look at the table below. Over 21.5 games is priced at -120 (1,83) giving is an implied probability of 54.5%. Historically 76.8% of matches that went over 21.5 also went over 2.5 sets. Combine those 2 and we have an implied probability of 41.9% which would dictate a price of +139 (2,39) so at +170 (2,70) there’s value and I’m happy to scoop up the bad price for a full unit and cheer for another 3 set classic.

Recap

Full unit Hsieh -110 (1,87)

Full unit Kvitova/Barty over 2.5 sets