It was almost a really great day yesterday. Hsieh was serving, up 4-0 AND LOST. That was rough. It was a great match overall. To give credit where some credit is due, Anett Kontaveit did battle back from down 0-4*. I’m excited to back her come clay season. The second match, as expected, was a lot of fun. The rare WTA tiebreak in the first followed by 2 more pretty tight sets. Barty was the deserving winner. Onto the other 2 quarterfinals today.
Yesterday 1-1 +.6 units
Season to date 101-119-13 -8.10 Units Average Odds +105 Average Units/Bet 0.97
All of these lines come from a local book that I use. I will say this often, BE SURE TO CHECK THE PRICES AT ALL THE BOOKS YOU CAN ACCESS. One of the easiest ways to be a better bettor is get the best prices. I’m using lines from my local to try to teach this lesson and make sure what I post is widely available to those who read. I’m sure anything I post in here is offered at a better number somewhere, so be smart and check all your outs before placing your wager. The first number after each player’s name is their US odds with decimal odds in parenthesis. I’ll list total games for every match and spreads for matches with a spread greater than 2.5 games. Anything less than that and just take the moneyline, no need to risk a bagel or breadstick ruining your favorite spread.
As for staking, 1 unit = 1% of my bankroll. Do what you’d like, but I think is the best plan for the long term. Almost all bets will be 1 unit, sometimes less and rarely more. If it’s a favorite then the bet is to win the number of units posted. For example, 1 unit on a -130 (1,77) is a 1.3 unit bet to win 1 unit. If it’s an underdog, then the bet is to risk the units posted. For example, 1 unit on +200 (3,00) is 1 unit to win 2 units. Feel free to DM @_Noops with any questions.
Karolina Pliskova -130 vs Marketa Vondrousova +105 Total Games 22
This line is perfect. Look at the numbers and be in awe of what both ladies have done this year. Hold+break of 115 and an average games of +3.7 per match is truly impressive. I really wanted to bet Vondrousova at +130(2,30)sh, but, alas, the books are not allowing me the opportunity. Vondrousova has only lost 3 matches all season. She beat Halep last week in Indian Wells and beat Mertens this week in Miami. She is more than capable of winning this match, but I’m not interested at this price. Pliskova is one of the best players on tour and is rightfully the favorite. There may even be a little value on her here, but I’m going to pass. The total at 22 games is massive. I almost want to bet the under honestly, but I’m passing on that too.
Qiang Wang +225 vs Simona Halep -265 (1,73) Total Games 21 Spread +/- 4 games
Another properly priced match. Wang has some good wins over the top 20, but this would arguably be her biggest, non-final victory if she were to win. Halep is much better, she should win this easily and deserves that price. I could see Wang taking a set maybe, but if she wins it’s probably in match that we remember Halep losing more than we remember Wang winning. Perhaps Halep’s back bothers her or her coach isn’t capable of stabilizing her mentally. At -265 (1,73) Halep has an implied probability of victory of 73% which feels about right. +4 games would normally be appealing, but Wang has a tendency to lose sets 6-2/1/0 instead of 6-4 which you need with +4 games. Pass on the moneyline and spread.
Let’s go back to that Wang wins a set idea. 21 games is a pretty solid total, but I see value again in the over 2.5 sets market. Like I talked about yesterday with Kvitova/Barty there can be value on over 2.5 sets when you look at the projected total and historical rates. In this case, 69% of matches that go over 21 games also went over 2.5 sets which means the price on over 2.5 sets should be roughly +165 (2,65). Looking at Bovada I see over 2.5 sets at +190(2,90). I’m going put a half a unit on over 2.5 sets.
Let’s talk about hedging our 100-1 outright on Wang. We made it all the way to the quarterfinals and have a chance to lock in some value or at the very least cover our initial stake. Like I said, I expect Halep to win, but Wang isn’t completely out of it. I populated the first table below with my outright bet, a hedge bet on Halep and projected 2 more hedges if Wang were to make it all the way to the finals. If we place a unit bet to win .27 units on Halep, we can cover our Wang outright ticket and have some value left in the semifinals and finals. All that said, I’m not hedging. It’s .1 units. If she can win here, I’m in a much more advantageous spot. I projected the semifinals and finals line at -200(1,50), but I think they might be cheaper than that which would mean even more value than what you see in the second table below. I’m letting it ride another round, but if you want to hedge there is a good chance to buy out of your initial risk and maintain some value.
Half unit over 2.5 sets Wang/Halep +190 (2,90)