First, let’s review the bad. Venus. Williams. Keeps. Winning. Matches. I just don’t understand it. She really has looked injured/fatigued/old/whatever, but she just keeps beating people. Maybe it’s a perfect storm of bad players and players she owns. Jakupovic isn’t a top level player and it showed in her loss to Venus. Williams is 7-3 and has now won the last five matches against Carla Suarez Navarro. Daria Kasatkina is just terrible now apparently. Regardless, I’m still shocked that Venus Williams has made it this far. Mertens got all the way to the tiebreak but couldn’t win a set to get our over 2.5 sets. Had I taken the over 21.5 game, it would have been a win, but as I wrote about before, in the long term over 2.5 sets at +150 is a better bet. It just sucks the one or two times it matters.
Now the good news, Putintseva not only covered +4 games, she won! I feel a little bad for not taking the moneyline, but I still don’t think it was worth the price. Clothing designer and mother, Serena Williams, withdrew from the tournament and Danielle Collins lost which means we are guaranteed to have 1 of our Wang futures in the quarterfinals. Yafan Wang, who we got at 300-1, will face Qiang Wang, 100-1, to make it to the quarterfinal. What a great piece of value that will be.
Yesterday 1-2 -1 unit
Season to date 97-117-13 -11.75 Units Average Odds +105 Average Units/Bet 0.97
All of these lines come from a local book that I use. I will say this often, BE SURE TO CHECK THE PRICES AT ALL THE BOOKS YOU CAN ACCESS. One of the easiest ways to be a better bettor is get the best prices. I’m using lines from my local to try to teach this lesson and make sure what I post is widely available to those who read. I’m sure anything I post in here is offered at a better number somewhere, so be smart and check all your outs before placing your wager. The first number after each player’s name is their US odds with decimal odds in parenthesis. I’ll list total games for every match and spreads for matches with a spread greater than 2.5 games. Anything less than that and just take the moneyline, no need to risk a bagel or breadstick ruining your favorite spread.
As for staking, 1 unit = 1% of my bankroll. Do what you’d like, but I think is the best plan for the long term. Almost all bets will be 1 unit, sometimes less and rarely more. If it’s a favorite then the bet is to win the number of units posted. For example, 1 unit on a -130 (1,77) is a 1.3 unit bet to win 1 unit. If it’s an underdog, then the bet is to risk the units posted. For example, 1 unit on +200 (3,00) is 1 unit to win 2 units. Feel free to DM @_Noops with any questions.
Su Wei Hsieh +155 (2,55) vs Caroline Wozniacki -185 (1,54) Total Games 21 Spread +/- 3.5 games
This will be another chance for Wozniacki to win 3 matches in the same tournament for the first time this year. This is her first season managing rheumatoid arthritis. The condition tends to get worse with repeated activity so making long runs in tournaments could be difficult. She faces Hsieh whom she has beaten 4 times already, but all 4 were before 2016. Hsieh was fantastic in her win against Osaka. Naomi looked dominant early, but Hsieh changed her strategy and was able to apply pressure to Osaka who hit error after error while Hsieh hit winners. I like Hsieh here. She can win this match. I think the head to head and the name value of Wozniacki are presenting a cheap opportunity to grab a crafty player. Full unit on Hsieh.
Anett Kontaveit +160 (2,60) vs Bianca Andreescu -200 (1,50) Total Games 21 Spread +/- 3.5 games
Bianca Andreescu is a Canadian freight train rolling through the WTA. She should be exhausted but is a heavy favorite. There’s probably value on Kontaveit, but I just can’t do it. I’m not stepping in front of a freight train. Pass.
Petra Kvitova -175 (1,57) vs Caroline Garcia +145 (2,45) Total Games 21.5 Spread -/+ 3 games
Garcia has played some great tennis dispatching Julia Goerges. Maybe it really just is Jennifer Brady she can’t handle. We’re certainly going to find out in this match. Kvitova is one of the very best players on tour. Garcia has had success against Kvitova, she’s 3-2 lifetime all on hard courts and won most recently in the semifinal in Beijing in October 2017. I don’t make stock in those matches though. Kvitova is 19-5 this year. She’s only lost 5 matches in 3 months. Garcia has beaten 2 very good players, Azarenka & Goerges, convincingly in Miami. I think Kvitova wins this match and I’m not hedging any of my 14-1 outright. There’s probably a little value on Garcia, but I would want +160 or better to take her.
Ashleigh Barty -180 (1,56) vs Kiki Bertens +150 (2,50) Total Games 21.5 -/+ 3.4 games
Just to remind everyone, this match involves Kiki Bertens, so historically its best to do the opposite of whatever I’m about to type. These two played a memorable match in Sydney. Barty bested Bertens in the semifinals in 3 sets. Barty also beat Bertens last year in Montreal. I think the head to head is driving a cheap price on Bertens. As cheap as it looks, I’m going to pass. Barty’s hold+break is 118 this year which is pretty stellar. She’s only lost 3 times all year, twice to Kvitova and once to Svitolina. I’m passing.
Karolina Pliskova -350 (1,29) vs Yulia Putintseva +275 (3,75) Total Games 20.5 Spread -/+ 4.5 games
Yulia is having a nice tournament. She beat Belinda Bencic and survived a tough 3 setter with Anastasija Sevastova. She’s never beaten Pliskova the Greater, 0-3 lifetime, but she did take a set off her in Brisbane this year and had chances to win that match. I think she has a real chance to win this match. These courts have been slow which should dull some of Pliskova’s power and allow Putintseva’s movement to shine. If Putintseva can hold around 70% she’s going to have chances to advance to the next round. The total also looks a game too low. Pliskova loves long matches. Full unit on +4.5 games, full unit on over 20.5 games and half a unit on Putintseva to win.
Market Vondrousova -375 (1,27) vs Tatjana Maria +295 (3,95) Total Games 20 Spread -/+ 5 games
What is Tatjana Maria doing here? I can’t imagine anyone picked her to beat #65, #31 and #6 in the world in the same season, let alone the same tournament. This stands as an indictment against Camila Giorgi and Sloane Stephens. Both capable players, Stephens could contend for #1, but both just don’t seem to be that interested in tennis right now. Vondrousova does not suffer from that affliction. She’s been winning a lot of tennis matches and I expect that to continue. This line is correct, feel free to parlay Vondrousova with something, but I will not. Pass.
Yafan Wang +145 (2,45) vs Qiang Wang -175 (1,57) Total Games 21 Spread +/- 3 games
Just the match I wanted to see in this spot. If you followed my preview of Miami, you should be holding an outright ticket for both of these ladies. Qiang arrived as one of the better players on tour last season. She made the leap from being a good player in Asia to being a good player all over the world. Yafan Wang seems to be making that same leap herself this season. She won her first WTA title in Acapulco and has looked great all season. This is going to be a great match between countrywomen. Qiang has won 5 of their 6 previous matches, but they haven’t played since 2016 and both are much different players. This should be a very close match and I think the price might have a little value on Yafan, but I’m going to pass. If you are watching, live bet whomever gets broken first. Both women break a lot and are not strangers to coming back down a break.
Venus Williams +170 (2,70) vs Simona Halep -220 (1,45) Total Games 20.5 Spread +/-3.5 games
I’ll be short here as I whined plenty in my opener. Venus has looked terrible. Simona Halep is a very good player who had a bit of a scare against Polona Hercog yesterday, so I think she’ll be laser focused. Halep beat Venus 2 & 3 in Melbourne and 2 & 2 last year in Montreal. Halep should win this match, but I just can’t find a way to bet it. Pass.
Full unit Hsieh +155
Full unit Putintseva +4.5 games
Half unit Putintseva +275 (3,75)
Full unit Pliskova/Putintseva over 20.5 games