What a loss on over 2.5 sets. Serving up 5-1 to win the second set, Qiang Wang lost 6 games in a row and failed to force a 3rd set. Halep look great during that comeback. In her press conferences and her play you can see her focus on winning this title. Pliskova didn’t have her best stuff, but it was good enough to beat her fellow Czech Vondrousova. Marketa was allegedly crying just before the match and she looked lost throughout. Overall, not the best day of tennis, but we have 2 potentially great semifinals to look forward to.
Yesterday 0-1 -.5 units
Season to date 101-120-13 -8.60 Units Average Odds +105 Average Units/Bet 0.97
All of these lines come from a local book that I use. I will say this often, BE SURE TO CHECK THE PRICES AT ALL THE BOOKS YOU CAN ACCESS. One of the easiest ways to be a better bettor is get the best prices. I’m using lines from my local to try to teach this lesson and make sure what I post is widely available to those who read. I’m sure anything I post in here is offered at a better number somewhere, so be smart and check all your outs before placing your wager. The first number after each player’s name is their US odds with decimal odds in parenthesis. I’ll list total games for every match and spreads for matches with a spread greater than 2.5 games. Anything less than that and just take the moneyline, no need to risk a bagel or breadstick ruining your favorite spread.
As for staking, 1 unit = 1% of my bankroll. Do what you’d like, but I think is the best plan for the long term. Almost all bets will be 1 unit, sometimes less and rarely more. If it’s a favorite then the bet is to win the number of units posted. For example, 1 unit on a -130 (1,77) is a 1.3 unit bet to win 1 unit. If it’s an underdog, then the bet is to risk the units posted. For example, 1 unit on +200 (3,00) is 1 unit to win 2 units. Feel free to DM @_Noops with any questions.
Anett Kontaveit +195 (2,95) vs Ashleigh Barty -260 (1,38) Total Games 21.5 Spread +/- 3.5 games
Barty is on an absolute tear in Miami. Beat Yastremska 4 & 1 and then Stosur 0 & 3. She came back down a set to beat Kiki Bertens and then survived another 3 setter against Petra Kvitova. I don’t know what to say about Kontaveit. She’s played 3, 3 set matches and got a retirement out of the Canada’s hero, Bianca Andreescu. She’s had moments where she’s looked every bit as talented as I hear she is and moments where it looked like her time in Miami was certainly ending. The numbers scream Barty and the price seems to agree. I have to pass on the favorite at those numbers. The total at 21.5 games is just about right and I see no value in over 2.5 sets at +140 (2,40). Pass.
Karolina Pliskova +125 (2,25) vs Simona Halep -155 (1,65) Total Games 21.5
Pliskova has not looked her best in Miami despite having made it this far. No problems in her first match against Petra Martic, but she needed 3 sets to beat Cornet & Putintseva both players below her level of talent. The score against Vondrousova looks good, but Vondrousova played worse more than Pliskova played well. Halep stumbled against the worst player she’s faced in Miami, Polona Hercog, and dispatched the others, Townsend, Venus & Qiang Wang, in 2 sets. As I mentioned earlier she seems locked in and laser focused on winning this title. A win here would return her to the #1 ranking in the world. The head to head is mostly Halep. Halep leads 7-2 lifetime, 6-1 on hards, and 3-1 in the last 2 years. I can’t see Halep losing this match. She is the better player, she’s in better form and she’s locked in and focused. I’m grabbing some Halep. I’m going to be -155 (1,65) to win 1 unit and I’m also going to take some Halep to win 2-0. To win 2-0, aka -1.5 sets, are interesting markets because it’s the exact same bet, but the pricing is often different by a few points. I have Bovada open right now and Halep 2-0 is +135 (2,35), but Halep -1.5 sets is +140(2,40). I’m putting half a unit on Halep -1.5 sets. Make sure that you check for both prices wherever you bet this, because there may be a chance to save a few points of juice.
Full unit Halep -155 (1,65)
Half unit Halep -1.5 sets (or Halep 2-0) +140 (2,40)