Season to date 123-164-14 -28.02 Units Average Odds -105 Average Units/Bet 1.02
All of these lines come from a local book that I use. I will say this often, BE SURE TO CHECK THE PRICES AT ALL THE BOOKS YOU CAN ACCESS. One of the easiest ways to be a better bettor is get the best prices. I’m using lines from my local to try to teach this lesson and make sure what I post is widely available to those who read. I’m sure anything I post in here is offered at a better number somewhere, so be smart and check all your outs before placing your wager. The first number after each player’s name is their US odds with decimal odds in parenthesis. I’ll list total games for every match and spreads for matches with a spread greater than 2.5 games. Anything less than that and just take the moneyline, no need to risk a bagel or breadstick ruining your favorite spread.
As for staking, 1 unit = 1% of my bankroll. Do what you’d like, but I think is the best plan for the long term. Almost all bets will be 1 unit, sometimes less and rarely more. If it’s a favorite then the bet is to win the number of units posted. For example, 1 unit on a -130 (1,77) is a 1.3 unit bet to win 1 unit. If it’s an underdog, then the bet is to risk the units posted. For example, 1 unit on +200 (3,00) is 1 unit to win 2 units. Feel free to DM @_Noops with any questions.
Jessica Pegula +130 (2,30) vs Andrea Petkovic -160 (1,62) Total Games 20.5
There’s not a ton of data to work with in this match. This is Pegula’s first ever WTA main draw match on clay. She was 17-11 at lower levels against a player with an average rank of 413. Petkovic has some ugly WTA level performances on the dirt, but she was 7-2 at lower levels. This seems like a classic match where the younger player is more focused while the veteran looks ahead to a bigger even, but that’s mostly my gut. There’s just too much unknown here. Pass.
Stefanie Voegele -395 (1,25) vs Jana Cepelova +305 (4,05) Total Games 20 Spread -/+ 5 games
One of these is a decent WTA level player and the other spends most of her time at lower levels without much success. Voegele is the favorite, but I’m not sure the difference in talent, form or pedigree would lead me to this pricing. There’s just nothing good to say about the underdog, so pass.
Dalila Jakupovic +240 (3,40) vs Katerina Siniakova -290 (1,34) Total Games 19 Spread +/- 5 games
We have yet another wonky match. Siniakova continues her career as a player, “with lots of talent and potential just waiting to break out.” She’s a fantastic doubles player and at this point, a bad singles player. She’s 5-10 on the season and 2 of those wins came in qualifying. Jakupovic had some success in a small sample size at the WTA level, but was only 16-15 on the clay at lower levels. It’s another spot where I like the dog, but I just can’t get myself to do it. Pass.
Anna Schmiedlova +165 (1,75) vs Viktoria Kuzmova -215 (1,46) Total Games 20 Spread +/- 4 games
Schmiedlova has better WTA numbers on clay, but almost all that success came in winning Bogota. Outside of that, she was pretty mediocre. Kuzmova is settling in as one of the better young players on tour and at lower levels, 23-11 on the dirt averaging +2.5 games. I think Kuzmova wins, but I do see an awfully small total. Both women average over 21.5 games on clay and books have offered us only 20. Both are comfortable on the clay and should have no problem trading blows. Matches in Prague also tend to be longer. Over the last 10 years on clay, 43% of matches went over 20.5 games, but in Prague 50% of matches go over 20.5. That’s a 16% increase in probability. I expect Kuzmova to win, but I think Schmiedlova can win at least 8 games along the way. Full unit on over 20 games.
Danielle Collins -155 (1,64) vs Jennifer Brady +125 (2,25) Total Games 20.5
Brady had a nice hard court season. She even beat Caroline Garcia 3 times, but she is not a clay court player and she does not deserve to be this closely priced to Danielle Collins. Collins is a much better all around player and although the numbers above don’t fill you full of confidence, she was 20-6 at lower levels on the dirt. This an excellent price on Collins, but I don’t like to lay that much juice. Hopefully we find a parlay partner.
Kristyna Pliskova -120 (1,83) vs Natalia Vikhlyantseva -110 (1,91) Total Games 21
Yawn. 2 mediocre clay players meet in a match that few will watch and even fewer will remember. Pass.
Magda Linette -130 (1,76) vs Ivana Jorovic +100 (2,00) Total Games 21
See the previous preview. Pass.
Tatjana Maria -410 (1,24) vs Isabella Shinikova +320 (4,20) Total Games 20 Spread -/+ 5 games
Shinikova is a career Challenger/ITF level player. This is her first WTA level clay match since July 2017. Maria isn’t the best, but she is a WTA level player. I’m not sure she deserves to be priced so expensively, but I can’t make a case for her opponent. Pass.
Yulia Putintseva -110 (1,91) vs Tamara Zidansek -120 (1,83) Total Games 21
Putintseva had a nice run and is starting to show some of her promise in actual victories, but this will be her first match on clay this season. In fact, she hardly ever plays on the dirt. Zidansek was fantastic on clay last year, but this season has been different. She only won 1 match in Charleston, 2 in Bogota and 0 in Istanbul. Her 3 losses came at the hands of Tomljanovic, Arruabarrena & Martic which at a second glance is actually nothing to be ashamed of. I think we’re getting a very cheap price here. Full unit on Zidansek.
Pauline Parmentier +135 (2,35) vs Alison van Uytvanck -165 (1,60) Total Games 21 Spread +/- 3 games
Parmentier is the better clay player at the WTA level, but AVU was 8-2 at lower levels averaging +3.3 games. Parmentier is also 33 and in the downswing of her career. I like Pauline’s chances here, but AVU’s big serve is a huge weapon and could be enough alone to win this match. I was considering an over, but I like over 2.5 sets better here. Bovada is offering +180 (2,80) and based on historical averages, the line should be +155 (2,55) offering a 9% edge. Half a unit on over 2.5 sets.
Rebecca Peterson -145 (1,68) vs Viktorija Golubic +115 (2,15) Total Games 21
There’s not much to glean here from the WTA data as the matches are few and far between. Peterson has been the better player at lower levels with a 16-3 record averaging +4.8 games versus 6-3 and only +2.6 games for Golubic. Neither is in particularly good form, basically just getting a win every few matches. Pass.
Ana Bogdan +120 (2,20) vs Alize Cornet -150 (1,67) Total Games 21
Oooooo baby, Ana Bogdan is hot. She won 2 matches in a row! It was even 3 wins in a 4 matches. Before that? It was a lot of losing. Her wins were against player ranked 199, 217 & 741. Cornet is not only a solid WTA level player, but she loves the dirt. It’s her first clay match of the year, but I love this price. I think Bogdan’s recent “run” and it being Cornet’s clay debut are offering us a cheap opportunity to get a good player. Cornet had a better record, hold+break and average games AND all against better competition. I’ve found my parlay partner for Collins.
Prague – Full unit - Schmiedlova/Kuzmova over 20 games
Rabat – Full unit – Zidansek -120 (1,83)
Rabat – Half unit – Over 2.5 sets Parmentier/Van Uytvanck +180 (2,80)
Prague/Rabat – Full unit – Parlay Collins/Cornet +175 (2,75)