WTA Prague & Rabat Day 2

Yesterday 1-2 -.5 units

Season to date 125-166-14 -28.52 Units Average Odds -105 Average Units/Bet 1.02

All of these lines come from a local book that I use. I will say this often, BE SURE TO CHECK THE PRICES AT ALL THE BOOKS YOU CAN ACCESS. One of the easiest ways to be a better bettor is get the best prices. I’m using lines from my local to try to teach this lesson and make sure what I post is widely available to those who read. I’m sure anything I post in here is offered at a better number somewhere, so be smart and check all your outs before placing your wager. The first number after each player’s name is their US odds with decimal odds in parenthesis. I’ll list total games for every match and spreads for matches with a spread greater than 2.5 games. Anything less than that and just take the moneyline, no need to risk a bagel or breadstick ruining your favorite spread.

As for staking, 1 unit = 1% of my bankroll. Do what you’d like, but I think is the best plan for the long term. Almost all bets will be 1 unit, sometimes less and rarely more. If it’s a favorite then the bet is to win the number of units posted. For example, 1 unit on a -130 (1,77) is a 1.3 unit bet to win 1 unit. If it’s an underdog, then the bet is to risk the units posted. For example, 1 unit on +200 (3,00) is 1 unit to win 2 units. Feel free to DM @_Noops with any questions.

Prague

POSTED YESTERDAY Jessica Pegula +130 (2,30) vs Andrea Petkovic -160 (1,62) Total Games 20.5

There’s not a ton of data to work with in this match. This is Pegula’s first ever WTA main draw match on clay. She was 17-11 at lower levels against a player with an average rank of 413. Petkovic has some ugly WTA level performances on the dirt, but she was 7-2 at lower levels. This seems like a classic match where the younger player is more focused while the veteran looks ahead to a bigger even, but that’s mostly my gut. There’s just too much unknown here. Pass.

POSTED YESTERDAY Stefanie Voegele -395 (1,25) vs Jana Cepelova +305 (4,05) Total Games 20 Spread -/+ 5 games

One of these is a decent WTA level player and the other spends most of her time at lower levels without much success. Voegele is the favorite, but I’m not sure the difference in talent, form or pedigree would lead me to this pricing. There’s just nothing good to say about the underdog, so pass.

POSTED YESTERDAY Dalila Jakupovic +240 (3,40) vs Katerina Siniakova -290 (1,34) Total Games 19 Spread +/- 5 games

We have yet another wonky match. Siniakova continues her career as a player, “with lots of talent and potential just waiting to break out.” She’s a fantastic doubles player and at this point, a bad singles player. She’s 5-10 on the season and 2 of those wins came in qualifying. Jakupovic had some success in a small sample size at the WTA level, but was only 16-15 on the clay at lower levels. It’s another spot where I like the dog, but I just can’t get myself to do it. Pass.

POSTED YESTERDAY Anna Schmiedlova +165 (1,75) vs Viktoria Kuzmova -215 (1,46) Total Games 20 Spread +/- 4 games

Schmiedlova has better WTA numbers on clay, but almost all that success came in winning Bogota. Outside of that, she was pretty mediocre. Kuzmova is settling in as one of the better young players on tour and at lower levels, 23-11 on the dirt averaging +2.5 games. I think Kuzmova wins, but I do see an awfully small total. Both women average over 21.5 games on clay and books have offered us only 20. Both are comfortable on the clay and should have no problem trading blows. Matches in Prague also tend to be longer. Over the last 10 years on clay, 43% of matches went over 20.5 games, but in Prague 50% of matches go over 20.5. That’s a 16% increase in probability. I expect Kuzmova to win, but I think Schmiedlova can win at least 8 games along the way. Full unit on over 20 games.

POSTED YESTERDAY Danielle Collins -155 (1,64) vs Jennifer Brady +125 (2,25) Total Games 20.5

Brady had a nice hard court season. She even beat Caroline Garcia 3 times, but she is not a clay court player and she does not deserve to be this closely priced to Danielle Collins. Collins is a much better all around player and although the numbers above don’t fill you full of confidence, she was 20-6 at lower levels on the dirt. This an excellent price on Collins, but I don’t like to lay that much juice. Hopefully we find a parlay partner.

POSTED YESTERDAY Kristyna Pliskova -120 (1,83) vs Natalia Vikhlyantseva -110 (1,91) Total Games 21

Yawn. 2 mediocre clay players meet in a match that few will watch and even fewer will remember. Pass.

Mihaela Buzarnescu -120 (1,83) vs Svetlana Kuznetsova -110 (1,91) Total Games 21.5

This match will be awesome. Buzarnescu loves the dirt. The numbers above are good and at lower levels she was 22-4 averagin +4.8 games per match. Kuznetsova was one of the better players on tour before getting injured. She’s looked solid in her first few matches, only 3-2, but those 2 losses were to Vondrousova and Pliskova the Greater. There is nothing to be ashamed of in losing to either woman. The line looks right, but I love the over here. If you read these regularly you should know what’s about to happen. Over 21.5 is a crazy total in the WTA, but 77% of matches that go over 21.5 games also go over 2.5 sets. The line should be +135 and is +145, so, sadly, no edge :( . Pass all around.

Margarita Gasparyan +185 (2,85) vs Qiang Wang -235 (1,42) Total Games 20.5 Spread +/- 4 games

I’m sick of betting against Gasparyan. Last week was her first clay event, WTA or otherwise, since 2016 and she went 3-0 before retiring in her fourth match. Wang is the better player. Wang is the better player on clay. -4 games seems like a nice bet and the moneyline would be great in a parlay, but I’m not willing to lose another bet fading Gasparyan on clay until further notice. This is probably dumb, but pass.

Anastasia Potapova +350 (4,50) vs Anastasija Sevastova -440 (1,22) Total Games 19 Spread +/- 5.5 games

Let’s start with the most important part of this handicap. As far as first names are concerned, Anastasija > Anastasia. I love the J, excellent flourish. Clay court tennis, in this case, appears to correlate with quality of first name. Sevastova is awesome on clay. That highly technical analysis aside, her hold+break numbers over the past 2 years are in the upper echelon of the WTA. 28-11 over last 2 years of WTA matches against an average rank faced in the 60s is phenomenal. She should beat almost anyone she faces. All those nice things said, she is mercurial at best. She can melt down or “get hurt” at anytime. I would love to sprinkle some capital on the underdog, but she’s just as unreliable. Potapova is a great young talent, but her mental state is unstable at best. Pass.

Barbora Strycova -225 (1,44) vs Mona Barthel +165 (3,75) Total Games 21.5 Spread -/+3.5 games

Apparently Barthel sucks. Pass.

Rabat

Elise Mertens -485 (1,20) vs Kirsten Flipkens +385 (4,85) Total Games 19.5 Spread -/+ 5.5 games

Mertens is an elite clay player. She is well deserving of the pricing you see above, but her form lately has been awful. She lost in the first round of the first 2 clay events of the year. I’m not going to bet against her, but I’m definitely betting on her. Pass.

Petra Martic -110 (1,91) vs Polona Hercog -120 (1,83) Total Games 21

Martic is coming off a very long week. She won the title in Istanbul last week, took Monday off and is now here to play another tournament. Oh, and it’s the week before a premier mandatory event in Madrid. There’s a good chance Martic withdraws or retires. Hercog is a good clay player and should be coming off plenty of rest.

Timea Bacsinszky -365 (1,37) vs Johanna Larsson +285 (3,85) Total Games 20 Spread -/+ 5 games

Bacsinszky had an incredible clay season 2 years ago. Since then? Not so much. Larsson has maintained solid numbers at a WTA level while being 10-2 at lower levels. Full unit Larsson +5 games and half a unit +285 (3,85).

Johanna Konta -200 (1,50) vs Yafan Wang +160 (2,60) Total Game 20.5 Spread -/+ 4 games

Neither of these ladies play clay very often. Konta i a good hard court and grass player, but clay is not her service. Yafan Wang has the tool, but not the results so I can’t take her. I like the dog, but I have to pass.

Vera Zvonareva -115 (1,87) vs Lara Arruabarena -115 (1,87) Total Games 21

One of these is a solid clay player and one of these is, well, ok, I’m sorry, I just can’t do this. Why on earth is Zvonareva not a big dog here? Vera has played 8 clay matches SINCE 2012. She didn’t even qualify for Stuttgart, she need a lucky loser spot to make the main draw. Lara is 5-2 on clay already this season.  This is a crazy cheap price on her. 2 units on Arruabarrena.

Daria Gavrilova +145 (2,45) vs Su Wei Hsieh -175 (1,57) Total Games 20.5 Spread +/- 3.5 games

Either player could win this match. It could go 3 set in 3 hours or 2 lets in less than 90 minutes. Pass.

Olga Danilovic +100 (2,00) vs Maria Sakkari -130 (1,76) Total Games 20.5

I think the wrong women is favored here. Olga was 5-0 at the WTA level as she won the clay event in Moscow last season. She was also 26-12 at lower levels with an average of +2.5 games per match. Sakkari’s best clay results are quarterfinals about once a year on the dirt. Danilovic even won 2 matches in qualifying so she has a feel for these courts. Full unit on Danilovic.

Sara Sorribes Tormo -175 (1,57) vs Varvara Lepchenko +125 (2,25) Total Games 21.5

Tormo has better numbers at the WTA level, but Lepchenko has a better numbers at lower levels. Part of me wants to bet the under, but this could be an ugly 3 set match. Pass.

Fiona Ferro +160  (2,60) vs Ajla Tomljanovic -220 (1,45) Total Games 20.5 Spread /- 3.5 games

Ferro LOVES the dirt. She’s 41-22 on the red clay at lower levels over the last 2 years. Ajla hasn’t played much, but her few matches are much better. Pass.

Magdalena Rybarikova +125 (2,25) vs Ysaline Bonaventure -175 (1,57) Total Games 21.5

Ugh. Anybody but Rybarikova. She’s won 3 of her last 4 matches, but only 3 of the 18 before that. So that’s 6-19 in her last 25 matches. WOOF. Bonaventure is not good on clay, but Rybarikova is just bad. Pass.

Recap

POSTED YESTERDAY Prague – Full unit - Schmiedlova/Kuzmova over 20 games

Rabat – Full unit Larsson +5 games

Rabat – Half unit Larsson +285 (3,85)

Rabat – 2 units – Arruabarrena -115 (1,87)

Rabat – 1 unit – Danilovic +100 (2,00)