WTA Prague & Rabat Day 3

Yesterday 1-4 -1.7 units

Season to date 126-170-14 -30.22 Units Average Odds -105 Average Units/Bet 1.02

All of these lines come from a local book that I use. I will say this often, BE SURE TO CHECK THE PRICES AT ALL THE BOOKS YOU CAN ACCESS. One of the easiest ways to be a better bettor is get the best prices. I’m using lines from my local to try to teach this lesson and make sure what I post is widely available to those who read. I’m sure anything I post in here is offered at a better number somewhere, so be smart and check all your outs before placing your wager. The first number after each player’s name is their US odds with decimal odds in parenthesis. I’ll list total games for every match and spreads for matches with a spread greater than 2.5 games. Anything less than that and just take the moneyline, no need to risk a bagel or breadstick ruining your favorite spread.

As for staking, 1 unit = 1% of my bankroll. Do what you’d like, but I think is the best plan for the long term. Almost all bets will be 1 unit, sometimes less and rarely more. If it’s a favorite, then the bet is to win the number of units posted. For example, 1 unit on a -130 (1,77) is a 1.3 unit bet to win 1 unit. If it’s an underdog, then the bet is to risk the units posted. For example, 1 unit on +200 (3,00) is 1 unit to win 2 units. Feel free to DM @_Noops with any questions.

Prague

Barbora Strycova -185 (1,54) vs Jessica Pegula +145 (2,45) Total Games 20.5 Spread -/+ 3 games

Strycova is a tour veteran with a very solid game. The numbers above aren’t impressive but look at the average rank. She played 4 matches against players with an average rank of 48. So she not only had too few matches to build any form, she also played top level players in those matches. This year she is 4-1 on clay with 3 wins against top 100 players. Pegula hardly ever plays clay at this level but was 17-11 averaging +2.5 games at lower levels. She’s a young player with a lot of power to her game and she’s shown some grit as well. This will be a fun match. The pricing looks about right and although I’m tempted by the over I’ll pass.

Jana Cepelova +320 (4,20) vs Katerina Siniakova -410 (1,24) Total Games 20 Spread +/- 5 games

Siniakova smoked Jakupovic bagel & 2 in round 1. She has a lot of talent and we’ve just been waiting to see her display it in singles matches. Cepelova is a wild card in this event. She plays mostly at lower levels and not very well. Siniakova should win comfortably, but I have no interest in any bets. Pass.

Svetlana Kuznetsova -155 (1,64) vs Jil Teichmann +125 (2,25) Total Games 20.5

The Kuznetsova comeback continues as she looked great beating a good clay player in Buzarnescu 4 & 2. Teichmann is 12-2 already on clay. It’s mostly at lower levels, but she won an event and made the semifinals of another event. She won her 3 qualifying matches and her first round match here all in 2 sets. Kuznetsova deserves to be the favorite given her pedigree, but Teichmann will have her chances to win this match. Pricing looks right all around. Pass.

Tamara Korpatsch +135 (2,35) vs Anna Schmiedlova -165 (1,60) Total Games 21 Spread +/- 3 games

Korpatsch snuck in as a lucky loser and made good use of her opportunity beating Krunic in round 1. It was Krunic’s first match on clay this year, but she’s a very good clay player. She’s had success at lower levels, 32-17, and should be competitive in this match. Schmiedlova has a better pedigree at the WTA level on clay and deserves to be the favorite. This is another match with a live dog, but I don’t see any value in the price. Pass.

Mandy Minella +155 (2,55) vs Qiang Wang -195 (1,51) Total Games 20.5 Spread +/- 3.5 games

I’m surprised to see this match priced so far from even. Wang is ranked #16 and is a very good player, but she does not have much success on this surface. The numbers above are fine, but there’s nothing to get excited about there and only a few matches at lower levels. Minella has equal, if not slightly better, numbers at the WTA level and was 21-5 at lower levels. She can win this match. Full unit on Minella.

Antonia Lottner -115 (1,87) vs Bernarda Pera -115 (1,87) Total Games 21

Pera is a good clay player, especially at lower levels. She was 33-9 and averaged +4.5 games. Lottner doesn’t have as much in the way of past performances, but she is 8-2 this year on clay. Her hold+break the last year on clay is 116%. This is another great match. It’ll be interesting to watch a surging Lottner face the veteran clay player. Pass on any wagers.

Jennifer Brady +125 (2,25) vs Karolina Muchova -155 (1,64) Total Games 21

Jennifer Brady is having herself quite a season. She is 18-8 on the season. She beat Caroline Garcia THREE times already. She came back down a set and served up a bagel in the 3rd against Danielle Collins here in round 1. Before yesterday there was little evidence she was any good on clay. Maybe it’s an outlier. Maybe she’s increasing her level before our eyes. I’m not getting involved with that. Muchova is a fine player and has much more clay experience, albeit at lower levels. I can’t find a reason to bet on Brady and I’m certainly not opposing her for a while. I do, however, like an over here. They both love long matches and are no strangers to 3 setters. Half unit on over 2.5 sets +170 (2,70) at Bovada.

Natalia Vikhlyantseva -125 (1,80) vs Anastasia Potapova +105 (2,05) Total Games 21

I’m not sure why Vikhlyantseva is a favored in this match. She has a greater than 10% worse hold+break rate than Potapova. Natalia hardly ever plays on clay as you can see above. Potapova won Moscow last year and defeated one of the better clay players on tour, Sevastova, in round 1. Maybe the older Russian has a mental edge over her younger countrywoman? Full unit on Potapova.

Rabat

Isabella Shinikova +355 (4,55) vs Maria Sakkari -455 (1,22) Total Games 19.5 Spread +/- 5 games

Sakkari is a good WTA level player. Shinikova is used to playing competition ranked in the 400s & 500s. Sakkari deserves to be such a big favorite, but I have no interest in getting involved. She’s being playing better lately, but she can mercurial at times. Pass.

Tamara Zidansek -175 (1,57) vs Ysaline Bonaventure +145 (2,45) Total Games 21.5 Spread -/+ 3 games

Zidansek is a great clay player. Here hold+break, average games and record at every level is fantastic. Bonaventure is none of that. Ysaline is a good hard court player with a good serve. Clay is not the surface for her game. I’m surprised this match is lined as close as it is. I’m going to find a parlay partner for Zidansek and also put half a unit on -3 games.

Varvara Lepchenko +105 (2,05) vs Alison Van Uytvanck -135 (1,74) Total Games 21

Neither player is very good on clay. Neither play has much experience on clay. AVU has a great serve and that should allow her to control things and win this match. Part of me likes the over, but there’s just not enough data to tell what’s going to happen. Pass.

Polona Hercog -120 (1,83) vs Rebecca Peterson -110 (1,91) Total Games 21.5

Hercog is a good clay player and this is easily her favorite surface. She is 6-0 on the dirt this year with a title win in Lugano. Peterson’s WTA level numbers are not impressive, and this year has been more the same. She was 19-3 at lower levels, but Hercog was 42-9 over the same period. Polona should be a much bigger favorite, like in the range of -200 (1,50). 2 units on Hercog.

Lara Arruabarrena +165 (2,65) vs Su Wei Hsieh -200 (1,50) Total Games 20.5 Spread +/- 3.5 games

We have another surprisingly big favorite here. Hsieh is having a nice season, but she’s not a great clay player by any means. Arruabarrena has almost identical numbers and is in good form with a  6-2 record on the dirt this year. Lara has trouble with big hitters, but Hsieh is just about the furthest thing from that. Full unit on Arruabarrena.

Johanna Konta -175 (1,57) vs Ana Bogdan +140 (2,40) Total Games 21 Spread -/+ 3 games

Konta slugged out a tough 3 setter against Yafan Wang in her first clay match this season. She hardly plays any clay matches but does just fine when she does. Bogdan has found salvation on the dirt this year. She hadn’t won a match since November but is now 5-2 since clay season started. She did seem to be injured in her last match. She called for a few MTOs and was noticeably struggling. Konta should win this match, but I’m going to pass.

Timea Bacsinszky -120 (1,83) vs Ajla Tomljanovic -110 (1,91) Total Games 21.5

This should be a great match. Bacsinszky loves the clay and Ajla is a great all around talent. The surface really favors Timea. Ajla doesn’t play much clay and is just ok when she does. She’s had a great season and is in good form. I’m inclined to take Timea, but she hasn’t played enough good tennis yet to be trusted. Pass.

Elise Mertens -450 (1,22) vs Ivana Jorovic +330 (4,30) Total Games 19.5 Spread -/+ 5 games

Elise Mertens looked fantastic as she dismantled Flipkens 3 & 1. She is a top notch clay player, but her form this season has been rough. She was the favorite to win this event. She should be the favorite to win this event. She is not going to lose to Jorovic. Ivana has almost no WTA level experience and was 7-8 at lower levels on the dirt. All that said, I’ll pass on such a big spread and low total. Pass.

Recap

Prague – 1 unit – Minella +155 (2,55)

Prague – Half unit – Brady/Muchova over 2.5 sets +170 (2,70)

Prague – 1 unit – Potapova +105 (2,05)

Rabat – Half unit – Zidansek -3 games

Rabat – 1 unit – Arruabarrena +165 (2,65)

Prague/Rabat – 1 unit – Parlay Siniakova/Mertens/Zidansek +140 (2,40)