WTA Prague & Rabat Semifinals

Yesterday 0-3 -3.35 units

Season to date 127-179-14 -39.82 Units Average Odds -105 Average Units/Bet 1.02

All of these lines come from a local book that I use. I will say this often, BE SURE TO CHECK THE PRICES AT ALL THE BOOKS YOU CAN ACCESS. One of the easiest ways to be a better bettor is get the best prices. I’m using lines from my local to try to teach this lesson and make sure what I post is widely available to those who read. I’m sure anything I post in here is offered at a better number somewhere, so be smart and check all your outs before placing your wager. The first number after each player’s name is their US odds with decimal odds in parenthesis. I’ll list total games for every match and spreads for matches with a spread greater than 2.5 games. Anything less than that and just take the moneyline, no need to risk a bagel or breadstick ruining your favorite spread.

As for staking, 1 unit = 1% of my bankroll. Do what you’d like, but I think is the best plan for the long term. Almost all bets will be 1 unit, sometimes less and rarely more. If it’s a favorite, then the bet is to win the number of units posted. For example, 1 unit on a -130 (1,77) is a 1.3 unit bet to win 1 unit. If it’s an underdog, then the bet is to risk the units posted. For example, 1 unit on +200 (3,00) is 1 unit to win 2 units. Feel free to DM @_Noops with any questions.

Prague

Barbora Strycova -185 vs Jil Teichmann +155 (2,55) Total Games 21 Spread -/+ 3.5 games

Strycova has won 6 of her last 7 matches, all on clay. It seems she’s finding her best clay tennis form late in her career. Before this season her appearances on the dirt are few and is about a 50/50 winner/loser. She’s a grinder. She fights through the entire match and uses her cunning & skill to outthink opponents so it’s surprising to me she hasn’t been better on clay in previous seasons. As I’ve mentioned this week already, Teichmann has had an incredible clay season so far. She is now 14-2 on clay this year with 1 title win at a lower level event. Before this year, she was 45-23 on clay with an average games of +2.3 games. I’m excited to see the younger, in form player handles the veteran in this match. I think Teichmann can win the match, but I’m not interested in that pricing. I was really hoping for +4 or +4.5 on the spread. The total looks right and although I think we see 3 sets, the price at +155 (2,55) is right. Pass.

Bernarda Pera +155 (2,55) vs Karolina Muchova -185 (1,54) Total Games 21 Spread -/+ 3.5 games

I’m very surprised by the pricing here. You can see above that before this season, Pera is the only one with WTA experience on clay. At lower levels over the past 2 seasons they faced similar competition and Muchova was 19-12, averaging +1.9 games while Pera was 33-9, averaging +4.5 games. So far this week Muchova beat a down Swiatek, struggled in 3 sets against Brady who’s not a clay courter, and beat another non-clay player, Vikhlyantseva. Pera is left handed which can be a struggle for some players. Muchova is 7-11 in her career against lefties. I’m struggling to see what makes her the prohibitive favorite. Full unit on Pera +155.

Rabat

Maria Sakkari -140 (1,71) vs Alison Van Uytvanck +110 (2,10) Total Games 21.5

The numbers are very close here. AVU is one of the better servers on tour. She has accuracy, power, and most importantly, consistency. Clay is the most difficult serve to hold serve on and having such a strong serve is a real weapon. Sakkari does just about everything well when she’s in form and she has been on fire this week. She won all 3 matches in straight sets here so far. I can’t tell who wins this match. I prefer AVU’s consistency, but Sakkari at her best is most likely better. The total at 21.5 is huge, but 77% of matches that go over 21.5 games also go over 2.5 sets. Based on that, the line for over 2.5 sets should be +137 (2,37), but I’m seeing +165 (2,65) which offer us an almost 12% edge. Full unit on over 2.5 sets at +165 (2,65) at Bovada.

Ajla Tomljanovic -125 (1,80) vs Johanna Konta -105 (1,95) Total Games 21.5

We have another tight match that’s very similar to our last. In this case, Konta is the better server and Ajla is a good all around player. Neither has had great clay performances, but both have the skills to succeed on the surface. Looking at the matches so far this week, Konta is likely more fatigued having only played 3 setters spending roughly 9 hours on the courts. Ajla has played less than 7 hours and should be fresher. I don’t see an angle on either side. Both are tough players that force their opponents to beat them. We do, however, see another high total and an edge in the over 2.5 sets market. Based on pricing in this match and historical averages the price for over 2.5 sets should be +150 (2,50) which means at +170 (2,70) at Bovada we have a 7%+ edge. Considering both players average more 3 set matches than most, I’m going over 2.5 sets again for a full unit.

Recap

Prague – 1 unit – Pera +155 (2,55)

Rabat – 1 unit – Sakkari/Van Uytvanck Over 2.5 sets +165 (2,65)

Rabat – 1 unit – Tomljanovic/Konta Over 2.5 sets +170 (2,70)