Yesterday 2-2 +.4 units
Season to date 134-188-16 -39.37 Units Average Odds -105 Average Units/Bet 1.02
All of these lines come from a local book that I use. I will say this often, BE SURE TO CHECK THE PRICES AT ALL THE BOOKS YOU CAN ACCESS. One of the easiest ways to be a better bettor is get the best prices. I’m using lines from my local to try to teach this lesson and make sure what I post is widely available to those who read. I’m sure anything I post in here is offered at a better number somewhere, so be smart and check all your outs before placing your wager. The first number after each player’s name is their US odds with decimal odds in parenthesis. I’ll list total games for every match and spreads for matches with a spread greater than 2.5 games. Anything less than that and just take the moneyline, no need to risk a bagel or breadstick ruining your favorite spread.
As for staking, 1 unit = 1% of my bankroll. Do what you’d like, but I think is the best plan for the long term. Almost all bets will be 1 unit, sometimes less and rarely more. If it’s a favorite, then the bet is to win the number of units posted. For example, 1 unit on a -130 (1,77) is a 1.3 unit bet to win 1 unit. If it’s an underdog, then the bet is to risk the units posted. For example, 1 unit on +200 (3,00) is 1 unit to win 2 units. Feel free to DM @_Noops with any questions.
Mihaela Buzarenscu +125 (2,25) vs Jelena Ostapenko -155 (1,64) Total Games 20.5
The match of what once was. Before injuring her right ankle, Buzarnescu was playing some great tennis and even better tennis on the dirt. She is 5-18 since last August. She’s had a couple solid performances and shown flashes of her past level, but she’s not there yet. Ostapenko was 50-21 in 2017 on all surfaces combined. She won the French Open and 2 other events. Since then? It’s been mercurial at best. From time to time you flashes of the player from 2017, but those have been rare. This could be a great match. It could be an awful match. Pass.
Su Wei Hsieh -115 (1,87) vs Julia Goerges -115 (1,87) Total Games 21
Goerges won the title in Auckland to start the year. Since then she’s 6-8 with a lot of questionable losses. She rarely plays on clay and when she does it’s mediocre, average at best. She’s a mainstay of the top 50 but has never won more than 2 matches in Rome. She relies on a big serve and struggles with movement, so it’s no surprise she’s averse to the dirt. Hsieh is funny, because she’s almost the exact opposite player, but also isn’t very good on clay. Hsieh is one of the smartest players on tour. She has great movement and uses her craftiness to win points. I’m actually shocked she’s never had a good run on clay. She struggles to generate power and perhaps she never generates enough of it on clay to hit winners. Hsieh is in better and I do think her game suits the surface, but Goerges has the power to hit through Hsieh if she can hit her spots. Pass.
Aryna Sabalenka -140 (1,71) vs Alize Cornet +110 (2,10) Total Games 21
Aryna The Amazonian Warrior Sabalenka has not lived up to her lofty nickname lately. She’s 2-5 in her last 7 matches. To add to that, she’s not the most experienced clay player. Only 8 matches on the dirt last year, but a hold+break of 105 is nothing to be ashamed of. Cornet is much more comfortable on clay having played almost 3 times as many matches last season on the surface and with a hold+break of 108. There’s possibly some value on Cornet here, but Sabalenka’s power puts the match on her racquet. If she’s hitting her spots and getting her first serve in she should be able to hit plenty of winners. Her second serve has been awful this season and Cornet should be able to move up to the baseline and hit some nice returns. Cornet is a very live dog, but I was hoping for a better number. Pass.
Dayana Yastremska -140 (1,71) vs Carla Suarez Navarro +110 (2,10) Total Games 21
This one is difficult. Before this year, CSN was one of the better clay players on tour, but this season has been different. Here hold+break numbers are WAY down and she hasn’t put together back to back wins since Dubai. She’s been to final here, in 2015, so maybe she finds her clay legs on familiar courts. CSN’s test will be the ever improving Dayana Yastremska. She’s 0-2 on clay, but those losses came at the hands of Pliskova the Greater and the rejuvenated Kiki Mladenovic. Before this year, I would assume that the veteran CSN would be able to outthink the young, power hitter. Unfortunately it is not last year, so this price is probably correct. Pass.
Marketa Vondrousova -385 (1,25) vs Barbora Strycova +305 (4,05) Total Games 19.5 Spread -/+ 5 games
An old Czech and a young Czech enter a tennis arena. Don’t worry, there’s not a bad joke coming, but that is what we’ve got here. The future of Czech tennis meets one of the best Czech players in history. Strycova has been in the top 50 since 2014 and made it as high as 16. She turned 33 this year and there have been whispers that she may be ready to move on to life after tennis. Just in time for Czech fans comes Marketa Vondrousova. She’s 19-5 this season and made 2 finals. She’ll be 20 in June and is arguably the best young player in the game. The 2 have actually played 3 times and Marketa has yet to drop a set. She is well deserving of the pricing we see here. -5 games is probably half a game too short, but I’ll pass as I don’t like to lay so many games.
Irina Camelia Begu +110 (2,10) vs Daria Kasatkina -140 (1,71) Total games 21.5
What a sad state of affairs for Kasatkina to be so disrespected by the market. Begu is only 8-9 this year. Now 2 of the best wins came here in qualifying over Puig & Gavrilova. Outside of that, she’s been pretty bad. Looking at her past 2 seasons on clay, she’s 22-13 with a hold+break of 105 which is solid. Kasatkina was one of the best clay players on tour the last 2 years. 17-10 with a hol+break 11% higher against a much better average competition. The problem is that she’s been awful this year. She’s 4-8 on the year and only 1-2 on clay. Looking closer at those 3 matches on the dirt, she beat Elise Mertnes and lost to Donna Vekic & Victoria Azarenka. That’s nothing to be ashamed of and she looked much different in those matches than she did all year. Some would say this line stinks, but I’m going to hold my nose and take the plunge. Begu has been almost as unimpressive this year and, in general, is not on the same level as Kasatkina. Full unit on Daria.
Danielle Collins +135 (2,35) vs Caroline Wozniacki -165 (1,60) Total Games 20.5 Spread +/- 3 games
Take a look at the numbers above and this line will make absolutely 0 sense to you. What the numbers above fail to take into consideration is Wozniacki’s rheumatoid arthritis. It’s a debilitating condition that attacks the joints causing swelling & pain. It can be manageable, but flare ups can happen at any time. She retired in Madrid and began asking people social media what they do when they’re struggling with their RA. It’s going to be impossible to tell if she’s healthy here. If you have a book that cancels all bets after a retirement then I LOVE Wozniacki. Either she beats Collins or retires. That’s how I see this match. I’m going to pass.
Caroline Garcia -145 (1,68) vs Kristina Mladenovic +115 (2,15) Total Games 21.5
Poor Kristina Mladenovic. She beats Amanda Anisimova to qualify for the main draw and this is the match she gets. Anisimova gets in as a lucky loser and got to face an 18 year old, local wild card and was a huge favorite. Kiki will likely lose this match, but I’m optimistic about her chances. Ever since she started working with Sascha Bajin she has been a different player. Garcia has had an up and down season, but she’s more than talented enough to win this match. It will be a fun match of countrywomen, but I see no angle on the side. The total is pretty big, but looking at the over 2.5 set market I see some value. At Bovada you can get +165 (1,65) and I would make it +135 (2,35) giving us a 13% edge. Full unit on over 2.5 sets.
Belinda Bencic -175 (1,57) vs Anastasija Sevastova +145 (2,45) Total Games 21
Belinda Bencic has been great this season. She dominated hard court season and after a 2 year break, returned to the clay with little issue. She’s 8-4 on the dirt this year. She even beat world #1 Naomi Osaka in Madrid. Look a little closer and that’s not as impressive as it seems. Osaka is not at her best on clay and the other 7 wins came against Kozlova, Kuznetsova, Van Uytvanck, Minella, Townsend, Kiick & Aiava. There is nothing spectacular about any of that. Sevastova is only 4-3 on clay this season including Madrid, but those 3 losses came against Kvitova & Potapova in 3 sets and the other was a loss to Kiki Bertens who had actual flames coming out of her butt (or so I’ve been told). Look at her last 2 years on the dirt. 28-11 with a hold+break of 112 against top 70 competition. This is a great spot for Sevastova. She outclasses Bencic on clay and people are putting a lot of faith in a fairly hollow performance on the dirt this season. Full unit on Sevastova.
Maria Sakkari -180 (1,55) vs Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova +150 (2,10) Total Games 21
This line has moved a ton. When I first typed this in this morning, Sakkari was only -130 (1,76) and I liked that number. This number I do not like. Pavs is a good player, but Sakkari is in tremendous form and the market clearly agrees. Going from -130 (1,76) to -180 (1,55) means the implied probability moved from 56.5% up to 64.3% meaning anyone who jumped this morning has already won with 13.7% closing line value. Sadly, we missed out, so pass.
Elina Svitolina +110 (2,10) vs Victoria Azarenka -140 (1,71) Total Games 21
The 2 time defending champion is an underdog? Looking at the last 2 years this would seem preposterous. Svitolina was a top notch clay player and Azarenka was not. I say was, because she’s 4-1 on clay this season with mostly comfortable wins. Svitolina has been struggling with an injury and lost her first clay match of the season in 2 sets to Pauline Parmentier. This feels like the bizzarro world. Azarenka is winning on clay and Svitolina is hurt and losing to Pauline Parmentier. I’m terrified. Pass.
Ajla Tomljanovic +170 (2,70) vs Karolina Pliskova -220 (1,45) Total Games 21
This looks just about right. I want to bet on the underdog but can think of several reasons not to. Ajla is having a good year, but clay is her least favorite surface. She also had to play a tough 2 setter yesterday and has to play again in less than 24 hours against Pliskova the Greater. Historically Karolina is good clay which would be surprising, but her movement is better than you think and her serve is one of the more valuable weapons on tour. Tomljanovic is a good all around player, but this just isn’t her bag. She may win this match, but Piskova is well deserving of the price we see. Pass.
Ashleigh Barty -400 (1,25) vs Viktoria Kuzmova +310 (4,10) Total Games 19.5 -/+ 5 games
Barty is 23-4 this season. She lost to Kvitova twice, Halep, and Svitolina. So she’s only lost top 10 players. Kuzmova is not a top 10 player. She is a very promising young player who can generate good power and has a solid serve. Barty has a stellar hold+break of 112 the last 52 weeks. Barty should win this match, but that total looks too low. Looking back there’s just too many 6-0/1/2s in their matches to risk my money. Pass.
Full unit – Kasatkina -140 (1,71)
Full unit – Garcia/Mladenovic over 2.5 sets +165 (2,65)
Full unit – Sevastova +145 (2,45)