Yesterday 1-1 -0.35 unit
Season to date 136-191-16 -40.72 Units Average Odds +100 Average Units/Bet 0.97
All of these lines come from a local book that I use. I will say this often, BE SURE TO CHECK THE PRICES AT ALL THE BOOKS YOU CAN ACCESS. One of the easiest ways to be a better bettor is get the best prices. I’m using lines from my local to try to teach this lesson and make sure what I post is widely available to those who read. I’m sure anything I post in here is offered at a better number somewhere, so be smart and check all your outs before placing your wager. The first number after each player’s name is their US odds with decimal odds in parenthesis. I’ll list total games for every match and spreads for matches with a spread greater than 2.5 games. Anything less than that and just take the moneyline, no need to risk a bagel or breadstick ruining your favorite spread.
As for staking, 1 unit = 1% of my bankroll. Do what you’d like, but I think is the best plan for the long term. Almost all bets will be 1 unit, sometimes less and rarely more. If it’s a favorite, then the bet is to win the number of units posted. For example, 1 unit on a -130 (1,77) is a 1.3 unit bet to win 1 unit. If it’s an underdog, then the bet is to risk the units posted. For example, 1 unit on +200 (3,00) is 1 unit to win 2 units. Feel free to DM @_Noops with any questions.
Naomi Osaka -115 (1,87) vs Kiki Bertens -115 (1,87) Total Games 21.5
Oh boy, Kiki Bertens, one of the best clay players on tour is lined evenly with Naomi Osaka, who isn’t at her best on the dirt. The problem here is that I do not bet on Kiki Bertens matches. If I bet on her to win, she loses. If I bet against her, she wins. Kiki has been her normal, spectacular self on the dirt this year. Great record, great average games and her hold+break of 122 is as good as anyone on the tour. Osaka is a great all around player, but she is least comfortable on slow, outdoor clay courts like we have here in Rome. She has won 2 matches already and both in straight sets, but that was against the player formerly known as Dominika Cibulkova and Mihaela Buzarnescu who’s still finding her form after a big injury last season. Bertens did play almost 4 hours of tennis in her 2 3 setters yesterday and is coming off a title run last week. It’s possible she might be fatigued. I would love to bet on Kiki Bertens, but I’m not allowed to do that. I am allowed to bet the total and this looks like a great spot for over 2.5 sets. Based on the pricing and historical averages, we have a 13% edge with over 2.5 sets at +165 (2,65) at Bovada. On top of that edge, this will be a very competitive match and neither will lose focus down a set. Full unit over 2.5 sets.
Marketa Vondrousova -125 (1,80) vs Johanna Konta -105 (1,95) Total Games 21.5
This is a bizarrely similar handicap to the last match. One women has much better clay stats, but spent 4 hours playing 2 3 setters and the other is Jo Konta. This is the best run of Konta’s career on the dirt. She has never won this many matches in such a short time frame going 8-2 in her 10 matches on clay this season. Vondrousova is having one of the best seasons of anyone on tour. She is 22-5 on the year and 9-1 on clay with a stellar hold+break. Similar to Bertens, I’m worried about the fatigue, but I’m also not excited to step in front of Konta during this run. I’m not one to get in front of runaway trains. Pass.
Victoria Azarenka -150 (1,67) vs Karolina Pliskovka +120 (2,20) Total Games 21.5
Speaking of people playing above and beyond the clay skills we’ve seen in their career we have Victoria Azarenka. Vika played 4 clay matches in 2018 and only won 1. She didn’t lose a single clay match in 2017, but that’s only because she didn’t play a single clay match in 2017. She was 3-4 in 2016. Actually, the last time she played this well was in 2015 at this very stadium. She made it to the quarterfinals just like she’s done 4 years later. Her serve has been incredible this week. She actually already beat Pliskova on clay in 3 sets after losing the first set. Looking at the last 2 seasons, this line doesn’t make any sense. Pliskova had been the much better clay player, but she struggled in her first 3 matches on the dirt this year going 1-2 with all 3 going 3 sets. She’s looked much more comfortable this week. She took out Ajla Tomljanovic in 2 easy sets and was able to come back down a set to beat Sofia Kenin. I love her chances this match and I would make her the favorite. I think Vika’s good start and Karolina’s slow start are both soon to end. Full unit on Pliskova.
Kristina Mladenovic -120 (1,80) vs Maria Sakkari -110 (1,90) Total Games 21.5
Mladenovic has been reborn!!! Ever since hiring Sacha Bajin she is renewed in her ability to win tennis matches. She’s already won 5 matches here and all in 2 sets. Now look at the stats above which are very impressive. There’s one problem here. Remember what I said about stepping in front of runaway trains? Sakkari won the title in Rabat, lost her first match in Madrid, and has also won 5 matches here only dropping 1 set to Petra Kvitova in her second match yesterday. I’ve been extremely impressed by both women these past few weeks and I just can’t pick a winner of this match. I like the over, but all the pricing looks appropriate. Pass.
Full unit – Osaka/Bertens over 2.5 sets +165 (2,65)
Full unit – Pliskova +120 (2,20)